Steve Mellish on RTV

[nortonscoin200]

Oh yes, you can’t go into the festival with one horse in each race, you have no chance.

Sorry CaT but you've just totally trashed my modus operandi !!!!!! which is one horse per race for the most part.

And I can't let that pass without comment.

I'm not knocking the book approach - it obviously works well for many FJs.

But that approach doesn't suit everyone - in terms of having enough time to form study and having deep enough pockets to invest in lots of bets.

By just backing one horse per race you keep the overheads down to a much more manageable level.

And if you view the entire 28-race Festival as one giant-sized book for betting purposes - you are basically saying: "If I pick well and get on board at good prices I'll back myself to come up with 3 winners and that will be enough for me to break even and probably make a small profit.

"If I get 4,5 or 6 winners I'll be in clover."

I've always found that system works pretty well.

When friends ask me for tips during the Festival I always say you can't just dip in and out on a few specific races and expect to make a profit - and the race-day prices on the majority of Festival races are the pits.

You have to be in for the entire ride, and most importantly imo, get on at decent prices.

It's why I'm probably not going to have a bet in 4 or 5 races at this year's Festival. I've missed the boat on the prices and I don't think lobbing a big bet on a short-priced hot-pot is the way to profit.

Obviously it's horses for courses and it sounds like your way is very different to mine - but you can come out on top both ways imho.

Best of luck in March pal.

[Carnage at Taunton]

[QUOTE=nortonscoin200;n350992]

Oh yes, you can’t go into the festival with one horse in each race, you have no chance.

Sorry CaT but you've just totally trashed my modus operandi !!!!!! which is one horse per race for the most part.

And I can't let that pass without comment.

I'm not knocking the book approach - it obviously works well for many FJs.

But that approach doesn't suit everyone - in terms of having enough time to form study and having deep enough pockets to invest in lots of bets.

By just backing one horse per race you keep the overheads down to a much more manageable level.

And if you view the entire 28-race Festival as one giant-sized book for betting purposes - you are basically saying: "If I pick well and get on board at good prices I'll back myself to come up with 3 winners and that will be enough for me to break even and probably make a small profit.

"If I get 4,5 or 6 winners I'll be in clover."

I've always found that system works pretty well.

When friends ask me for tips during the Festival I always say you can't just dip in and out on a few specific races and expect to make a profit - and the race-day prices on the majority of Festival races are the pits.

You have to be in for the entire ride, and most importantly imo, get on at decent prices.

It's why I'm probably not going to have a bet in 4 or 5 races at this year's Festival. I've missed the boat on the prices and I don't think lobbing a big bet on a short-priced hot-pot is the way to profit.

Obviously it's horses for courses and it sounds like your way is very different to mine - but you can come out on top both ways imho.

Best of luck in March pal.

I don’t plan to make a book in any race.
I do back horses during the season if I like the price and like a performance, and sometimes I find myself in a good position come the day. More often then not I am kind of in between your strategy and having some type of book I guess.
I have changed a bit this season, as I had a lot of non runners last March which I had backed early doors without nrnb, so decided to be much more selective this time, and still back at prices I could not resist, but if in doubt wait until nrnb, plus I have found that prices are shorter in relation to previous years so for me it makes sense.
I will find out after the festival if it works for me, so far I am fairly happy with where I am.
Wish you luck too my friend.

[Rooster Booster]

I could write pages on this subject but wouldn’t subject you good folks to my largely irrelevant opinions and so I will keep it relatively brief.

book building is ante post but ante post is not book building...as Captain Obvious would say, any bet placed before final decs is ante post whether you book build or not.

If we think of it as a spectrum book building is at one end and 1 horse per race ( or less even) is at the other end and you have everything in between. All strategies require skill to be successful, I suggest the skill sets are quite different depending on where on this spectrum you play.

id also say budget / available funds is a very significant factor too as is the availability of things like cash out which can force many peoples hand.

I think it is very important that we embrace, acknowledge and respect all forms of ante post betting and try and provide a service to all irrespective of where a person is on this spectrum.

I am not saying anything is broken but nothing is ever perfect and maybe one tweak could be for for a non book builder to put themselves forward for the 2023 podcasts just to provide a slightly different perspective as unless I’ve got it wrong the three podcasters are book builders albeit brilliant ones at that.

Please understand this is not a criticism of the forum in the slightest just a well intentioned thought/suggestion intended as one example (and I’m sure there are much better ones out there) of a small adjustment that could help improve inclusivity even more.

[The Fellow]

maybe he is referring to the tight odds on a lot of races , a few years ago the likes of Shishkin would be 4/1 or 5/1, a year before the festival , not 7/4 , then there is the ridiculous odds crashing because of podcasts and tipsters, and the price crashes before they have even run , just entered up, and finally the odds on Pied Piper dropping from 12 or 14/1 to 5/2 fav after beating basically rubbish juvi's in England ,

contact a bookie to add a horse to a race like a handicap 25/1 biggest price , jeez should be 33/1 all day, minimum

i'm almost done with it all as well , i have very little in the way of online accounts left anymore , B365 closed me down this week which was my last decent account , can't get out any of those dubious punts , pretty sickening really, i know a few others feel the same way , i can't remember a year i don't have a proper bet in the Championship races,

i think Steve is pretty much spot on

[Faugheen_Machine]

maybe he is referring to the tight odds on a lot of races , a few years ago the likes of Shishkin would be 4/1 or 5/1, a year before the festival , not 7/4 , then there is the ridiculous odds crashing because of podcasts and tipsters, and the price crashes before they have even run , just entered up, and finally the odds on Pied Piper dropping from 12 or 14/1 to 5/2 fav after beating basically rubbish juvi's in England ,

contact a bookie to add a horse to a race like a handicap 25/1 biggest price , jeez should be 33/1 all day, minimum

i'm almost done with it all as well , i have very little in the way of online accounts left anymore , B365 closed me down this week which was my last decent account , can't get out any of those dubious punts , pretty sickening really, i know a few others feel the same way , i can't remember a year i don't have a proper bet in the Championship races,

i think Steve is pretty much spot on

I got into racing in the very late 90s. My first Cheltenham festival was 99 - See More Business.

From the mid 00's onwards I've kept hearing people tell me that ante post betting is dead. It makes me wonder just how good it was. I think the last 10 years have been brilliant but I always hear that it was better 'back in the day'.

It seems like things were always better 'back in the day'! It's like the old timer in the pub trying to tell me that football was much better 'back in the day'. When they played on ploughed fields, drank 8 pints the night before the game, kicked each other up and down the park etc etc.

[The Fellow]

the odds on races this season are ludicrous as well as closing accounts etc , B365 closed my account based on liabilities , i hardly bet a horse week to week with them other than the festival ,

i was still betting Vautour at 20/1 after he won his maiden hurdle 2013, nowadays Vautour would be 8/1 on reputation , cut to 6/1 pre race and 5/2 fav after winning one maiden , that's hopeless for an ante post player

[Rooster Booster]

I got into racing in the very late 90s. My first Cheltenham festival was 99 - See More Business.

From the mid 00's onwards I've kept hearing people tell me that ante post betting is dead. It makes me wonder just how good it was. I think the last 10 years have been brilliant but I always hear that it was better 'back in the day'.

It seems like things were always better 'back in the day'! It's like the old timer in the pub trying to tell me that football was much better 'back in the day'. When they played on ploughed fields, drank 8 pints the night before the game, kicked each other up and down the park etc etc.

I think it very much depends on individual circumstances. The difference between having b365 and PP available and not having them available for example is monumental. The difference between having a lifestyle that allows constant and timely scrutiny of entries,declarations, trainer comments, websites, forums etc and not having that opportunity is enormous now more than ever.

I for one have had to watch opportunity after opportunity go by as others have filled their proverbial boots. So when Steve Mellish talks about Ante Post I suspect he is talking about a whole gammet of things that include prices, account closures, account restrictions, wholesale price crashes the second somebody breathes. Never before have I left a room to make lunch and come back to find the horse I had earmarked for a race has just halved in price across the board in the time it took me to make a fucking sandwich.

Never before has everything been so enormously time sensitive and so yes I suspect for many people that don’t have the ability to keep abreast of everything in a timely fashion, don’t have a good selection of online accounts and don’t have the funds to book build, ante post probably does feel a great deal less enjoyable. For those that don’t have those challenges I am sure it is every bit as enjoyable if not more so than ever before.

Despite everything I’ve just written, how an individual responds is really important imo and so I’d say to Steve Mellish find a way to get smarter, to get better and rather than wallow in your hankering for better days focus on making the very best of your new reality and if you can’t do that or don’t enjoy it anymore than look elsewhere for your passion.

[Faugheen_Machine]

the odds on races this season are ludicrous as well as closing accounts etc , B365 closed my account based on liabilities , i hardly bet a horse week to week with them other than the festival ,

i was still betting Vautour at 20/1 after he won his maiden hurdle 2013, nowadays Vautour would be 8/1 on reputation , cut to 6/1 pre race and 5/2 fav after winning one maiden , that's hopeless for an ante post player

Betting account closures aren't anything to do with ante post though, unfortunately.

Honeysuckle was available at 16/1 for the champion hurdle after she'd won a grade 1 hurdle . That looks big in hindsight, just like vautour does.

[Rooster Booster]

Betting account closures aren't anything to do with ante post though, unfortunately.

Honeysuckle was available at 16/1 for the champion hurdle after she'd won a grade 1 hurdle . That looks big in hindsight, just like vautour does.

Betting account closures has everything to do with ante post betting. If the accounts that are closed are the ones the offer cash out or nrnb then it has everything to do with ante post. Or have I misunderstood your point...apologies if I have

[Faugheen_Machine]

I think it very much depends on individual circumstances. The difference between having b365 and PP available and not having them available for example is monumental. The difference between having a lifestyle that allows constant and timely scrutiny of entries,declarations, trainer comments, websites, forums etc and not having that opportunity is enormous now more than ever.

I for one have had to watch opportunity after opportunity go by as others have filled their proverbial boots. So when Steve Mellish talks about Ante Post I suspect he is talking about a whole gammet of things that include prices, account closures, account restrictions, wholesale price crashes the second somebody breathes. Never before have I left a room to make lunch and come back to find the horse I had earmarked for a race has just halved in price across the board in the time it took me to make a fucking sandwich.

Never before has everything been so enormously time sensitive and so yes I suspect for many people that don’t have the ability to keep abreast of everything in a timely fashion, don’t have a good selection of online accounts and don’t have the funds to book build, ante post probably does feel a great deal less enjoyable. For those that don’t have those challenges I am sure it is every bit as enjoyable if not more so than ever before.

Despite everything I’ve just written, how an individual responds is really important imo and so I’d say to Steve Mellish find a way to get smarter, to get better and rather than wallow in your hankering for better days focus on making the very best of your new reality and if you can’t do that or don’t enjoy it anymore than look elsewhere for your passion.

Agreed RB.

It's a difficult to make money now, but I've always thought it has been.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Betting account closures has everything to do with ante post betting. If the accounts that are closed are the ones the offer cash out or nrnb then it has everything to do with ante post. Or have I misunderstood your point...apologies if I have

I'm saying that account closures are affecting everyone, not just those that focus on ante post betting.

[Rooster Booster]

Agreed RB.

It's a difficult to make money now, but I've always thought it has been.

It has but it’s never been so discriminate or circumstantial before.

[Rooster Booster]

I'm saying that account closures are affecting everyone, not just those that focus on ante post betting.

Got it

[Faugheen_Machine]

It has but it’s never been so discriminate or circumstantial before.

The shops are still open to us all. 10 years ago nobody had cash out, bog, justice refund, first past the post etc etc - I think people forget that they're a perk rather than a right.

[The Fellow]

looking elsewhere for your passion is going to become the way it is i fear , its all very well backing the odd fancy down the bookies , but unless you want to risk a hunch with your hard earned on ante post horses in novice or championship races i fear you could be heading to the poor house very quickly , i don't know if you get NRNB in the bookies just now , but if you don't then how could you even punt in the handicaps ,

punting on the day would be the only real answer in a shop, that's a little sad though