To win TODAY and at the Festival

[Eggs]

.....a few early ones for today;

Copperhead & GC 150-1 (H)
Vinndication & GC 150-1 (Sky)

Epatante & CH 9/2 (H): 11/2 (Sky)
Epatante Today, Christmas Hurdle & CH 8-1 (H)
Epatante & CH/Honeysuckle Hattons & MH 28-1 (H)
Ribble Valley win today & 1st 3 CH 33-1 (H)
Ribble Valley & CH 100-1 (H)

Monkfish & RSA 8-1 (H)

Carrigeen Lotus & MNH 150-1 (H)

Sky have a few Grand National offers;
Kildisart 1st 4 today & 1st 4 GN 20-1
Cloth Cap 1st 6 today & 1st 4 GN 28-1
Cloth Cap & GN 250-1

.....in hindsight, some of these worked out quite well and are not looking too bad now. Clearly, the trick is to cherry pick, either to top up what you have or fill a void for potential winners you’ve missed.

I see these offers akin to the roll-up thread.

[Eggs]

....a few ahead of this weekends Tingle Creek;

Altior & CC 10-1 (PP); 14-1 (Bet365) (Sky)
Greaneteen & CC 50-1 (Sky)

[Eggs]

....update:

Altior TC/CC 8-1 (H; PP; Sky) 14-1 (365)
Rouge Vif win Tingle Creek/1st 3 CC 16-1; win TC & CC 50-1 (H)
Greaneteen TC/CC 50-1 (Sky)

Christmas/Festival doubles:

Shishkin Wayward Lad/Arkle 13/8 (H)
ABP Savills New Years Day Chase/GC 8-1 (H)
Minella Indo Savills/GC 18-1 (H)
Champ Savills/GC 20-1 (H)
Cyrname King George/GC 20-1 (H) 25-1 (Sky; 365)
Real Steel King George/GC 125-1 (H)
Champ King G/ GC 66-1 (Sky)

...the 14-1 Altior TC/CC with 365 looking a standout compared to 8-1 elsewhere.

[Ballyfitz]

Looks like Bet365 are also now 8/1 on the Altior Tingle / CC double

[SizingJohn]

Think the ABP one is good value if looking to get him in the book. Last couple of years tends to be 1 other WM runner and maybe 2 or 3 other horses in Tramore. 2 point boost on his current best gold cup price and if he doesn't win that he definitely won't be winning the gc

[Nortons who]

Think the ABP one is good value if looking to get him in the book. Last couple of years tends to be 1 other WM runner and maybe 2 or 3 other horses in Tramore. 2 point boost on his current best gold cup price and if he doesn't win that he definitely won't be winning the gc

Has WM said that ABP is going for the Savills this year? If not then I would be a bit wary of taking that one, as for the last 2 years ABP has gone to Tramore and then straight to Cheltenham. I was assuming WM would tread the same path, as why change a winning plan.

[SizingJohn]

Has WM said that ABP is going for the Savills this year? If not then I would be a bit wary of taking that one, as for the last 2 years ABP has gone to Tramore and then straight to Cheltenham. I was assuming WM would tread the same path, as why change a winning plan.

I'm pretty sure this bet with hills is for the Savills in Tramore on new years day,not the other one in Leopardstown. Not helpful they are both the same sponsor.

[SizingJohn]

Double checked it there and it's the Tramore race on New Year's day.

[Birds Nest]

Think the ABP one is good value if looking to get him in the book. Last couple of years tends to be 1 other WM runner and maybe 2 or 3 other horses in Tramore. 2 point boost on his current best gold cup price and if he doesn't win that he definitely won't be winning the gc

Is ABP even going to the Savills this year? Couldnt see him in the decs?

[SizingJohn]

Is ABP even going to the Savills this year? Couldnt see him in the decs?

The race on New Year's day on Tramore is also sponsored by Saville and so is the Saville new year's day chase. That's what it is referring to on hills for that bet. Probably should have made it clear in the first paragraph I wrote.

[Might_Bite]

Wonder what will be offered about Santini Many Clouds and Gold Cup... I’ve yet to get him onside but I feel I need to. I reckon he will be most vulnerable this weekend but if he wins he will then likely only run (and win) the Cotswold Chase before the GC and therefore shorten both times.

What puts me off is there definitely isn’t much juice in his price at 7/1 as I’d guess he would not be shorter than 4/1 on the day and you may get place offers aswell.

9/1 or better on the weekend/GC roll up would be nice

[Eireman]

Think the ABP one is good value if looking to get him in the book. Last couple of years tends to be 1 other WM runner and maybe 2 or 3 other horses in Tramore. 2 point boost on his current best gold cup price and if he doesn't win that he definitely won't be winning the gc

I don't agree with the seemingly more and more common approach people are taking in that "if he doesn't win that he definitely won't be winning x race" Take ABP. He has fallen in the past, he could be lame on the day that they don't pick up on, he could be badly impeded by another faller.

In a race like that if they all get round and are all healthy of course he is going to win. If that was the case for every race though the best horse would always win but it isn't because there are a number of factors that could see him not win and yet still go on to win the GC.

[SizingJohn]

I don't agree with the seemingly more and more common approach people are taking in that "if he doesn't win that he definitely won't be winning x race" Take ABP. He has fallen in the past, he could be lame on the day that they don't pick up on, he could be badly impeded by another faller.

In a race like that if they all get round and are all healthy of course he is going to win. If that was the case for every race though the best horse would always win but it isn't because there are a number of factors that could see him not win and yet still go on to win the GC.

That's a fair point. I should have stated that I wouldn't be backing him for the gc if not. Under the potential downfalls as you said above, if he fell and the fact he only is scheduled 1 run before the gc it wouldn't be ideal prep. And if lame would wonder if any other potential issues could have occurred to keep him out for March as again, unlikely to see him out until then.

[Eireman]

That's a fair point. I should have stated that I wouldn't be backing him for the gc if not. Under the potential downfalls as you said above, if he fell and the fact he only is scheduled 1 run before the gc it wouldn't be ideal prep. And if lame would wonder if any other potential issues could have occurred to keep him out for March as again, unlikely to see him out until then.

That's also very fair and all questions I would ask myself. It's never going to be ideal for a horse not to win a prep race when rode to win it but I think this trend to completely categorically say "if X horse doesn't win X prep race then he has no chance in the targeted race" is wrong in a lot of cases and yet it seems to be more and more commonly said about horses by the racing public.

[SizingJohn]

That's also very fair and all questions I would ask myself. It's never going to be ideal for a horse not to win a prep race when rode to win it but I think this trend to completely categorically say "if X horse doesn't win X prep race then he has no chance in the targeted race" is wrong in a lot of cases and yet it seems to be more and more commonly said about horses by the racing public.

I do understand your point, but in this particular instance if ABP potentially doesn't win in Tramore with no hard luck stories or excuses, against what would be presumed inferior opposition (think acapella bourgeois was closest to him last year) then I would have to dismiss him for the gc. There will be much classier animals to try and dismiss in Cheltenham than Tramore.