To win TODAY and at the Festival

[Eggs]

....Hills have Proschema to win Morebattle & County @ 66-1, Sky were 100-1 earlier today.

[Saxon Warrior]

....Hills have Proschema to win Morebattle & County @ 66-1, Sky were 100-1 earlier today.

The Morebattle is worth more money than the County Hurdle this year.

The Fairyhouse 2M Handicap Hurdle (2 weeks after the County) is worth more too.

The County could see an affect with horses going to either of those races.

Good job its near universal NRNB now for Cheltenham

[Kevloaf]

Added 1pt Concertista 1st Black Tears 2nd @ 28/1 with Sky.
BT runs today.

Is it good value now she's 16/1?

Got no idea how to work out what price a forecast should be

It looks good?

[charlie]

Is it good value now she's 16/1?

Got no idea how to work out what price a forecast should be

It looks good?

I think it's just about right, just. 4 horses separate them. Roksana is better over 3m, Honeysuckle won't go, DDC the main danger, have zero love for VB. I think she's a good prospect to chase Concertista home.

[Kevloaf]

I think it's just about right, just. 4 horses separate them. Roksana is better over 3m, Honeysuckle won't go, DDC the main danger, have zero love for VB. I think she's a good prospect to chase Concertista home.

What price would it be on the day I wonder?

How do they price this stuff up? I can't really rememeber placing bets like

It does seem a fair enough price.

Of course, Roksana is likely to be shorter in the market as she's already won this race so even though might be better over further, she's proven to be good enough for second under these circumstances already (downgrading her win to a 2nd)

But fav to beat 2nd fav, would be short?

Black Tears likely to be 4th fav..... behind C, DDC and Roksana, so what I guess I'm asking, is....

Is 28/1 value for fav to beat 4th fav.... at their likely prices?

[Topofthegame2021]

Black Tears is still 4/1 in Sky’s place market if anyone fancies it. I’ve got it in a few multiples

[charlie]

What price would it be on the day I wonder?

How do they price this stuff up? I can't really rememeber placing bets like

It does seem a fair enough price.

Of course, Roksana is likely to be shorter in the market as she's already won this race so even though might be better over further, she's proven to be good enough for second under these circumstances already (downgrading her win to a 2nd)

But fav to beat 2nd fav, would be short?

Black Tears likely to be 4th fav..... behind C, DDC and Roksana, so what I guess I'm asking, is....

Is 28/1 value for fav to beat 4th fav.... at their likely prices?

Honey coming out officially will mean Concert goes off nearer 1/2 than EVS IMO, so her price is more attractive now.

BT might be 4th fav but she's goes for the race and has great Cheltenham form. The others could all easily not turn up. Roksana could go stayers, or miss Cheltenham. DDC could still go mares chase. I don't particularly rate Verdana Blue.

I think BT will inevitably shorten and is 12/1 with most firms now, so you'd get significantly less than 28/1 on the forecast on the day IMO if one is nearer 1/2 than EVS, and the other is a single figure price.

I think 28/1 is very fair.

[thorne365]

What price would it be on the day I wonder?

How do they price this stuff up? I can't really rememeber placing bets like

It does seem a fair enough price.

Of course, Roksana is likely to be shorter in the market as she's already won this race so even though might be better over further, she's proven to be good enough for second under these circumstances already (downgrading her win to a 2nd)

But fav to beat 2nd fav, would be short?

Black Tears likely to be 4th fav..... behind C, DDC and Roksana, so what I guess I'm asking, is....

Is 28/1 value for fav to beat 4th fav.... at their likely prices?

Probably priced using statistical models (likely based on win price mainly)

Basic logic probably is:

- Given Concertista wins (~47% prob) then normalise the rest of the field (slightly harder antepost i guess so maybe they just take a chunk out of each individual price) to get a w/o price
- Combine both [likely something like 0.47 X 0.11] which is ~18/1

edit:
Some places are going to be far more advanced than this (for day of race markets anyway) in that they will simulate the full race 10k time or more and count the times this 1/2 happened to generate the price. I'd imagine all sorts of stats/effects go into the sim which in theory should decouple the place from the win price slightly and in some cases would likely give a different price than the simple method above. I highly doubt sky have done anything like this though

[Kevloaf]

Probably priced using statistical models (likely based on win price mainly)

Basic logic probably is:

- Given Concertista wins (~47% prob) then normalise the rest of the field (slightly harder antepost i guess so maybe they just take a chunk out of each individual price) to get a w/o price
- Combine both [likely something like 0.47 X 0.11] which is ~18/1

Nice.

It looks like ante post on a forecast in this case is pretty good then.

Would look superb without Roksana or Dame De Compagnie.

[Quevega]

The Morebattle is worth more money than the County Hurdle this year.

The Fairyhouse 2M Handicap Hurdle (2 weeks after the County) is worth more too.

The County could see an affect with horses going to either of those races.

Good job its near universal NRNB now for Cheltenham

100k bonus on offer though.

[dannycraigpirates]

Dalton highway 66/1 to win today and pertemps on hills

[Eggs]

....Hills have Proschema to win Morebattle & County @ 66-1, Sky were 100-1 earlier today.

....now 50-1 Sky.

[charlie]

Got Sky to price up Sams Profile to win today and PLACE in the Stayers which they have at 80/1. Will probably look terrible if he runs a stinker but I'm having a little go at it.

Thats a sickener pal

[isitmarchyet]

Thats a sickener pal

I know, bit gutted. Oh well, it was worth a go. Wonder how many others hits there'll be over the next two weeks...

[charlie]

I know, bit gutted. Oh well, it was worth a go. Wonder how many others hits there'll be over the next two weeks...

We've all been hit or will get hit, I just remember this being a particularly good bet hence my condolences