The ULTIMA Handicap Chase

[HoldenTheReins]

Taken 33/1 E/W on B365 for Happygolucky based off Kim Bailey's talk to ATR earlier.

[Madmoose]

Taken 33/1 E/W on B365 for Happygolucky based off Kim Bailey's talk to ATR earlier.

Just watched that and was good to hear having previously been chat for the NH Chase so surely ends up here with his other handicapper heading to the Plate.

[HoldenTheReins]

Just watched that and was good to hear having previously been chat for the NH Chase so surely ends up here with his other handicapper heading to the Plate.

I'm more inclined to say Ultima based on his step up in trip LTO. Plate is still a possibility but I'm more with here.

[Mr X]

Just watched that and was good to hear having previously been chat for the NH Chase so surely ends up here with his other handicapper heading to the Plate.

Do you mean his other handicapper being Espoir Du Romay? If so he will need to run again before the fez to qualify for the plate I think.

[Madmoose]

Do you mean his other handicapper being Espoir Du Romay? If so he will need to run again before the fez to qualify for the plate I think.

Yeah that’s the one I meant

[charlie]

Added Happygolucky @ 27/1. Now Bailey has confirmed this is the plan I really like him here.

[charlie]

Added Happygolucky @ 27/1. Now Bailey has confirmed this is the plan I really like him here.

Profile wise Happygolucky ticks quite a lot of boxes:

YES - The last 6 winners ran at Cheltenham that season.
YES - Only one of the last eight winners aged older than eight.
YES - 10 of the last 12 won by either novices or second season chasers.
NO - The last five GB trained novices to win all had previously won a hurdle with a first prize of at least ?10k.
YES - All winners this century had recorded their best RPR over at least 3 miles.
YES - 7 of the last 8 had run at a previous Festival.
NO - 4 of the last 7 ran in the Newbury Ladbroke Chase. The other three were novices.
YES - No Irish trained winner since 2006.
YES - Six of the last seven winners all rated at least 142 and none SP bigger than 11/1.

We can't lay claim to much in handicaps on this side of the Irish Sea, but the Irish haven't won this since 2006 so siding we a horse that is confirmed, won over 3m+ around cheltenham and ticks all the above boxes seems like more than a reasonable bet @ 27/1 IMO.

[germanshepherd]

Profile wise Happygolucky ticks quite a lot of boxes:

YES - The last 6 winners ran at Cheltenham that season.
YES - Only one of the last eight winners aged older than eight.
YES - 10 of the last 12 won by either novices or second season chasers.
NO - The last five GB trained novices to win all had previously won a hurdle with a first prize of at least ?10k.
YES - All winners this century had recorded their best RPR over at least 3 miles.
YES - 7 of the last 8 had run at a previous Festival.
NO - 4 of the last 7 ran in the Newbury Ladbroke Chase. The other three were novices.
YES - No Irish trained winner since 2006.
YES - Six of the last seven winners all rated at least 142 and none SP bigger than 11/1.

We can't lay claim to much in handicaps on this side of the Irish Sea, but the Irish haven't won this since 2006 so siding we a horse that is confirmed, won over 3m+ around cheltenham and ticks all the above boxes seems like more than a reasonable bet @ 27/1 IMO.

He hasn't confirmed Ultima. In the ATR interview he said one of the handicap chases. In the ITV one 'he's got entries in the novice chases and he will be in a handicap chase as well'.

After his win at Cheltenham he said "We'd certainly like to be back here in March, but in what race I don't know. He'll stay as long as he wants but like a lot of things it'll depend on the ground.'

[charlie]

He hasn't confirmed Ultima. In the ATR interview he said one of the handicap chases. In the ITV one 'he's got entries in the novice chases and he will be in a handicap chase as well'.

After his win at Cheltenham he said "We'd certainly like to be back here in March, but in what race I don't know. He'll stay as long as he wants but like a lot of things it'll depend on the ground.'

Yes he has. Last night on twitter

Question: 'Hi Kim, any idea of which race we might see Happygolucky in at Cheltenam'

Kim: 'Ultima'

Didn't leave much room for interpretation

[Lobos]

This race is almost completely dominated by the English. You have to go back to 2006 to find an Irish winner. Makes life a little easier drawing a line through any Irish.

[billymag]

Has anyone heard if Jerrysback or Aye Right are going to be coming here

[ComplyOrDie]

Has anyone heard if Jerrysback or Aye Right are going to be coming here

No idea on Jerrysback, but I'm sure I read somewhere that they may skip Cheltenham with Aye Right. I only remember because he was on my long list (nearly every horse, Quevega will tell you ) of potentials for the race. Here is the story.

[Pendil]

Has anyone heard if Jerrysback or Aye Right are going to be coming here

Jerrysback is being aimed at the Racing Post (now Close Brothers) chase at Kempton 27/02

[Muswell]

Declared for the weekend I believe

[Muswell]

https://twitter.com/festivalracing/status/1362341428320468992?s=21