The ULTIMA Handicap Chase

[Viking Flagship]

Even with NRNB I can't help help myself but factor in the probability of a horse showing up or else it's too easy to find yourself tying up an endless amount of stake. At these sort of prices though I don't mind so much, and I don't think it's too farfetched to see him here.

[Lobos]

Just going back 10 years:

2011 - no runner
2012 - no runner
2013 - no runner
2014 - no runner
2015 - no runner
2016 - no runner
2017 - Noble Endeavour (3rd at 15/2) and Clarcam (9th at 50/1)
2018 - no runner
2019 - Noble Endeavour (10th and 14/1) and General Principle (PU at 14/1)
2020 - Elwood (Fell at 18/1)



I completely agree about the trend being unlikely to last, it makes no sense at all that Gordon hasn't mopped up in this race like all the other.


Only one horse has gone off bigger than 25/1, and Farclas surely wouldn't?

I can see the upside, although more likely money back than a single figure runner...but worth a poke to me too.

There has to be a reason he doesn't target this race. Saxon !!!!!! Get on it please !!!!!! Why ??????

[robith]

There has to be a reason he doesn't target this race. Saxon !!!!!! Get on it please !!!!!! Why ??????

Dunno, weird innit given his strength in other longer distance handicaps - maybe it's harder to cheat the ratings in this one?

[BigChaang]

I know he's had a good mention already for the Kim Muir but I've just backed Farclas at 25/1 NRNB for this. I'd be surprised if he could get in the Kim Muir under the threshold - which would leave here or the Plate. If I could get 25s NRNB for the Plate I'd take that too, but only 16s there which looks a bit tight.

Not declared for the Thyestes on Thursday but there's a possibility they'd go to the big mid-trip handicap at DRF. As a former festival winner I'll be surprised if they aren't eyeing something at Cheltenham and whilst I realise Gordon doesn't have much of a track record in the Ultima, it's surely only a matter of time before that record is improved. This horse is still only a 7yo and is unexposed over longer trips & as a chaser - 25s NRNB is a bet for me.

I don't know if he know's something V.F , but Barry Geraghty mentioned Farclas for the Kim Muir , the other week on the " off the fence show ".

[PresentingPercy]

I don't know if he know's something V.F , but Barry Geraghty mentioned Farclas for the Kim Muir , the other week on the " off the fence show ".

He's riding out for Gordon a couple of days a week, I'm sure he knows something

[Spectre]

Barry doesn't know what the UK handicapper will give him though, which is sure to be more than 145 and counts out the Kim Muir.

I've got both bases covered nrnb just in case, and like him wherever he turns up.

[BigChaang]

He's riding out for Gordon a couple of days a week, I'm sure he knows something

Yeah , that's what i thought too , 1,1,1,5,3 his chase record , @ 143 at the moment , what's the cut off for the K.M ?

[PresentingPercy]

Yeah , that's what i thought too , 1,1,1,5,3 his chase record , @ 143 at the moment , what's the cut off for the K.M ?

Irish rating of 143 at the moment, with BHA tax, hard to see him squeezing below the 145 cut off for the Kim Muir unless he shaves a few points off his current mark

[BigChaang]

Irish rating of 143 at the moment, with BHA tax, hard to see him squeezing below the 145 cut off for the Kim Muir unless he shaves a few points off his current mark

Has an Entry Sunday 7th Feb in a h/cap chase. Over 2m 5 f .

[Faugheen_Machine]

I know he's had a good mention already for the Kim Muir but I've just backed Farclas at 25/1 NRNB for this. I'd be surprised if he could get in the Kim Muir under the threshold - which would leave here or the Plate. If I could get 25s NRNB for the Plate I'd take that too, but only 16s there which looks a bit tight.

Not declared for the Thyestes on Thursday but there's a possibility they'd go to the big mid-trip handicap at DRF. As a former festival winner I'll be surprised if they aren't eyeing something at Cheltenham and whilst I realise Gordon doesn't have much of a track record in the Ultima, it's surely only a matter of time before that record is improved. This horse is still only a 7yo and is unexposed over longer trips & as a chaser - 25s NRNB is a bet for me.

Totally agree VK. I've backed him for the K Muir (NRNB) but I think you're right in taking the 25s for the Ultima and had to follow suit as realistically he isn't getting under the 145 rating.

[Viking Flagship]

Totally agree VK. I've backed him for the K Muir (NRNB) but I think you're right in taking the 25s for the Ultima and had to follow suit as realistically he isn't getting under the 145 rating.

Was he ever better than 12s NRNB for that race FM? I haven’t backed him in that as I thought the price was a bit rubbish and I would be tying up points in the slim hope he gets 145 which just looks so unlikely. Even if they could get 1 more mark-managing run into him the handicapper is really unlikely to drop a young unexposed horse any more than a pound, especially an Elliott trained one going for a Cheltenham handicap!

[Faugheen_Machine]

Was he ever better than 12s NRNB for that race FM? I haven’t backed him in that as I thought the price was a bit rubbish and I would be tying up points in the slim hope he gets 145 which just looks so unlikely. Even if they could get 1 more mark-managing run into him the handicapper is really unlikely to drop a young unexposed horse any more than a pound, especially an Elliott trained one going for a Cheltenham handicap!

You're right, 12s is the biggest price he's been NRNB (13s with the boost). I did have some at 20s but have since cashed that.

[jonthehammer]

Lobos

Just back Discorama to finish second, he hates winning. 1 win in chases, it came in November 2018, please give up on him

[Spectre]

Was he ever better than 12s NRNB for that race FM? I haven’t backed him in that as I thought the price was a bit rubbish and I would be tying up points in the slim hope he gets 145 which just looks so unlikely. Even if they could get 1 more mark-managing run into him the handicapper is really unlikely to drop a young unexposed horse any more than a pound, especially an Elliott trained one going for a Cheltenham handicap!

Elliott's sure to try though. Farcals is entered up at the DRF and nailed on to run poorly to make it as hard as possilbe for the UK handicapper to properly nail him with a big rise. Doubtful he gets a run in the Kim Muir I agree, and I suspect Run Wild Fred is the Gigi one for the race, with possibly Escaria Ten as Gordon's second horse depending on what mark he gets. However it's worth having Farcals onside nrnb just on the small chance he gets in, becasue he'd be close to a good thing you'd think, and definitely a short price. Having him rnb for both races is surely the way to play Farcals for anyone considering what to do.

[ComplyOrDie]

Elliott's sure to try though. Farcals is entered up at the DRF and nailed on to run poorly to make it as hard as possilbe for the UK handicapper to properly nail him with a big rise. Doubtful he gets a run in the Kim Muir I agree, and I suspect Run Wild Fred is the Gigi one for the race, with possibly Escaria Ten as Gordon's second horse depending on what mark he gets. However it's worth having Farcals onside nrnb just on the small chance he gets in, becasue he'd be close to a good thing you'd think, and definitely a short price. Having him rnb for both races is surely the way to play Farcals for anyone considering what to do.

I wouldn't discount Coko Beach either, who has so far taken a similar path as Milan Native from last year.