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The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

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  • Originally posted by Eggs View Post


    ....Matt Brocklebank has been producing the Value Bet column for a while now, not sure if that’ll be the case for the Festival.
    Shows how much I pay attention to the article!

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post
      Timeform 1-2-3
      1. Houx Gris (FR) ★★★★★
      2. Homme Public (FR) ★★★★
      3. Coltor (IRE) ★★★
      Timeform View


      If there was a race to back against Timeforms rating, it would be this one
      Having another look today, cant work out if the Irish form is any good

      Comment


      • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post

        Shows how much I pay attention to the article!
        ....I think Paul Kealy put up Sage Advice & Curious Bride in the Weekender.

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Eggs View Post

          ....I think Paul Kealy put up Sage Advice & Curious Bride in the Weekender.
          I was trying to think who else really likes Sage Advice and PK was it. Gutted Curious Bride is missing this.

          Comment


          • Looking at this race, there's a number of horses who have been running from the front - Druids Altar, Riviere D'Etel, Nassalam, Cabot Cliffs and Tinahalla. Saint Sam and Busselton also likely to be behind.

            It will be interesting to see the times over the first half a mile compared to the Supreme and Champion Hurdle. If they are going as quick or quicker than the Supreme, there's some very fancied horses who are going to be going too fast and there should be some in play opportunities with the held up horses.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by opatcho View Post


              If there was a race to back against Timeforms rating, it would be this one
              Having another look today, cant work out if the Irish form is any good
              Its all a bit guessy isnt it?

              French Form, UK Form, Irish Form.

              I would certainly not back anything at a short price in this race.
              "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                Its all a bit guessy isnt it?

                French Form, UK Form, Irish Form.

                I would certainly not back anything at a short price in this race.

                Pointless trying to at form lines, it all looks very inconsistent and messy - which you'd expect from a bunch of 4 year olds all progressing at different rates

                I think I like Glorious Zolf. Like his action in his first run, over decent ground. Claimer messed up his second run. Donny run I put down to the going, and also interesting they stuck a tongue tie on him, came back and won a flat race which I can only assume was a prep for this ??? no idea

                16/1, boosted to 18/1. Free bet, I'll take that

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Saxon Warrior View Post

                  Its all a bit guessy isnt it?

                  French Form, UK Form, Irish Form.

                  I would certainly not back anything at a short price in this race.
                  Sensible approach, 6 of the last 10 winners were 25/1 or bigger.
                  Elham Valley to make that 7 from 11 come 4.30pm tomorrow....

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                    Sensible approach, 6 of the last 10 winners were 25/1 or bigger.
                    Elham Valley to make that 7 from 11 come 4.30pm tomorrow....
                    Yeh average SP since race inception is just over 20/1 with two @ 40/1, three @ 33/1, and lots around the 20's mark.

                    I think obvious plots winning this for big stables skews the market slightly. It might happen again, it might not, but I think it pays to go with horses at a decent price. I've gone 4 against the field:

                    Homme Public @ 28/1
                    Sage Advice @ 25/1
                    Coltor @ 16/1
                    Houx Grix @ 8/1

                    (Reserve - Curious Bride @ 25/1)

                    Comment


                    • Curious Bride gets in

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Muswell View Post
                        Brilliant!

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                          Sensible approach, 6 of the last 10 winners were 25/1 or bigger.
                          Elham Valley to make that 7 from 11 come 4.30pm tomorrow....
                          Hudson de grugy bolted up off 122 on Saturday despite flattening a few hurdles so Elham Valley looks well treated on a line through him off 124

                          Certainly don't think he should be the price he is

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by Muswell View Post
                            Gets in with the same owner pulling out her other horse at lunch time for “not eating up” - coincidence or they wanted to get Curious Bride in?

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by Cashew King View Post

                              Gets in with the same owner pulling out her other horse at lunch time for “not eating up” - coincidence or they wanted to get Curious Bride in?
                              They definitely wanted her in. 33s now with Bet365.

                              Bet365 also pushed out Balko Saint and Druids Altar to 33s.

                              Comment


                              • Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post

                                They definitely wanted her in. 33s now with Bet365.

                                Bet365 also pushed out Balko Saint and Druids Altar to 33s.
                                Yes some big disagreements in odds here. PP are now 16/1 Druids Altar yet he's 33/1 with bet365.

                                Comment

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