The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Spectre]

But was the conditional AP as good as the champion AP?

In more recent times Jack Kennedy was a great conditional but I’m sure he’s improved since then.

Just playing devils advocate as, although I’d find it strange, the money worries me that you could be right. I’ve only got Q backed in the Triumph but was one of my earliest bets of the season; I’d be gutted for it to fall out the final hurdle so to speak.

You’re right to question it Jackie, and the point you make is fair.

[JackieMoon33]

You’re right to question it Jackie, and the point you make is fair.

The perils of ante post betting

[ComplyOrDie]

But isn’t not getting the rides on the favourites a pointer in itself that trainers would rather an established, experienced jockey?

Of course, experience can be key, but Gordon will have his own opinion of Jordan, if he feels he's good enough to ride festival winners for him that's good enough for me.

The market has done nothing but suggest Quilixios runs here, in the past week or so. He'll go off favourite and then we will see if it was the right decision or not

[Outlaw]

In a race when so many hide their ability once trainers realise they perhaps are not one of the leading talents of their generation. I struggle to envisage a horse going off 6/4 in this,am I alone in that ?

[JackieMoon33]

Of course, experience can be key, but Gordon will have his own opinion of Jordan, if he feels he's good enough to ride festival winners for him that's good enough for me.

The market has done nothing but suggest Quilixios runs here, in the past week or so. He'll go off favourite and then we will see if it was the right decision or not

Money and of lesser importance, the Twitter whispers, certainly seem to point in this direction. I’d still find it bizarre though, even without my ante post bet. I’ve got my selection for this race and won’t change now to Q at these prices.

[Lobos]

Money and of lesser importance, the Twitter whispers, certainly seem to point in this direction. I’d still find it bizarre though, even without my ante post bet. I’ve got my selection for this race and won’t change now to Q at these prices.

I won't change my selection, GZ, but I'll be adding Quixilos as he'd murder him even giving him a stone.

[Might_Bite]

It is a bit hard for me to believe that the highest rated top weight ever in a competitve festival handicap would go off shorter than 2/1. Even 3/1?

[JackieMoon33]

I won't change my selection, GZ, but I'll be adding Quixilos as he'd murder him even giving him a stone.

Personally I’d want to know Q official mark before lumping him at a short price. Either way I’m happy to let him win without carrying my cash. I have my value elsewhere and won’t deviate as I’d factored Q in when making that selection.

[Kevloaf]

Personally I’d want to know Q official mark before lumping him at a short price. Either way I’m happy to let him win without carrying my cash. I have my value elsewhere and won’t deviate as I’d factored Q in when making that selection.

What price do you think Q would go off in the Boodles?

I feel like I can see a back-to-lay in him even at his current price!

[Quevega]

I still have a difficult time believing this will happen, especially that it is set in stone, when so much can still happen in the next fortnight.
However, the rumours and price movement suggest it's under serious consideration and can see the angle using a conditional, especially with Elliot short of one of his special jockeys.

I'd be very annoyed if I was one of his other older Pro jockeys, as it doesn't say much for them.
If the horse can win a competitive handicap off clear top weight with a jockey who's won 7 races, then surely he'd go close in the triumph with an experienced Pro on board.

Keen to see his weight allocation, and conditional or not, these juvenile ratings can be very wishy washy and I actually wouldn't fancy the horse much anyway.
Not at 6-1 or below. Potentially giving weight of around 10-20lbs to something that's been campaigned for the race. If you know what I mean.

The selling job from Gordon, assuming it's his idea to persuade Cheveley Park to allow him to run a grade 1 winner off top weight in a handicap, with a conditional on board, on the new course, on potentially the slowest ground of the week, is a good one.

Especially as Cheveley Park described the horse as a stayer chaser for the future, more of a staying type and would be better on good ground. - (Triumph type)

It's certainly a curve ball and I feel for the people who were on him early.
I wasn't and just had a saver special on the Dublin festival double.
I'll actually prefer it if he doesn't run run the triumph as I have the others at fancy prices.

The Negative for me would be the bets I've made in the Boodles, as the pressure for this horse to win will be immense, so in that regard the 6-1 people took and the prices right now are kind of value, in a perverse way.
And I would be concerned as to the chance of his other runners, however, these horses have owners also. Does he persuade some of them not to run with some cock arsed excuse ?

[Eggs]

...I have backed Q @ 22-1 in a/r market, so I have it covered to a certain extent but it’s my biggest TH winner (36-1 & a 33-1 RaB). Add in a few multiples so it would be a huge disappointment for me if it goes down the handicap route.

[JackieMoon33]

What price do you think Q would go off in the Boodles?

I feel like I can see a back-to-lay in him even at his current price!

If he does run here, is no higher than 147 and the Irish start off day one firing in the winners then 2/1 could be possible I guess.

With any other trainer he’d be running in the Triumph and this would not even be a discussion. From a pure racing perspective it would be criminal for him to not be in the main race too.

[ToniC]

147 would be lenient and Id think it likely he could be 150 or higher. Aspire tower got 152 last year. Sir erec 151 the year before. He’s got 4 1s next to his name & beat a decent field comfortably at Leopardstown, much more comfortably than the bare 6 lengths.

selfishly I hope he gets mullered by the capper but also as a racing fan I do as well

[Quevega]

147 would be lenient and Id think it likely he could be 150 or higher. Aspire tower got 152 last year. Sir erec 151 the year before. He’s got 4 1s next to his name & beat a decent field comfortably at Leopardstown, much more comfortably than the bare 6 lengths.

selfishly I hope he gets mullered by the capper but also as a racing fan I do as well

Adagio is 146.
So 147 would be lenient, as I'm sure he'd have to rate the Irish juveniles better, just because of duffle coat.
So 150+ is probably right, and Zanayhir a couple pounds higher maybe ?

[ToniC]

Adagio is 146.
So 147 would be lenient, as I'm sure he'd have to rate the Irish juveniles better, just because of duffle coat.
So 150+ is probably right, and Zanayhir a couple pounds higher maybe ?

I think these juvenile ratings can be stupidly inflated & don’t necessarily agree with them, but putting my UK handicapper hat on, I’d probably have Quilixios 151 and zanahiyr 153. That’s using adagio and other juveniles that have already been rated as a baseline to work from.

I do think Quilixios hasn’t had a race yet, so we’re yet to see what his true ceiling is (suppose the same could be said for zanahiyr) but he looks outright made for a triumph hurdle. Let something go a good clip out from and then take it up hard jumping the last staying on strongly to the line.

I will be absolutely gutted if they go for the handicap with him, gutted I tell you