The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Al Boum Photo]

He was rated 131 in the UK when he came over recently.

I didn't realise that. He should get in in that case.

[Lobos]

Norton's, that is nothing short of sensational work. How can anyone not back Zoff after that !!??

[Kevloaf]

Norton's, that is nothing short of sensational work. How can anyone not back Zoff after that !!??

Anyone that's decided they're already done?

I know you've backed him....but you have to ask yourself whether you like the case because you already backed him, or liked the case....

As you've gone on record as saying you absolutely would NOT back anything now.....




Despite it being the same price as when you must have backed it.







My point is, nobody should follow your "advice", it's bad more often than it's not.
Sorry if that comes across as harsh, and I know you won't take it too personally, but my God you haven't half come out with some inaccurate shite tonight

[Viking Flagship]

This is the race that has my eyes popping out the most for NRNB options:

Teahupoo
Riviere D’etel
Busselton
John D’Id
Palm Beach
Longclaw
Glorious Zoff
Dark Voyager

And they’re just the ones I can remember!

This race was absolutely made for NRNB.

[Lobos]

Anyone that's decided they're already done?

I know you've backed him....but you have to ask yourself whether you like the case because you already backed him, or liked the case....

As you've gone on record as saying you absolutely would NOT back anything now.....




Despite it being the same price as when you must have backed it.







My point is, nobody should follow your "advice", it's bad more often than it's not.
Sorry if that comes across as harsh, and I know you won't take it too personally, but my God you haven't half come out with some inaccurate shite tonight

You've not done that bad yourself Kev, a little embarrassing really. I know you and Scooby are very close but there's no need to make a thing of it between me and him. I'm not into competitions !

I never really get involved in the Handicaps until the week itself with my Ew cross doubles. However, Saxon and his incredible handicap stats has persuaded me to do a couple. Glorious Zoff was one of those so I don't want any credit at all for picking him. I did go back through his form yesterday though and watched his races back and am properly hooked now. As for the following my advice.....I doubt anyone on here does that. They all know me by now and they are all well informed and have their own minds.

[Kevloaf]

You've not done that bad yourself Kev, a little embarrassing really. I know you and Scooby are very close but there's no need to make a thing of it between me and him. I'm not into competitions !

I never really get involved in the Handicaps until the week itself with my Ew cross doubles. However, Saxon and his incredible handicap stats has persuaded me to do a couple. Glorious Zoff was one of those so I don't want any credit at all for picking him. I did go back through his form yesterday though and watched his races back and am properly hooked now. As for the along my advice.....I doubt anyone on here does that. They all know me by now and they are all well informed and have their own minds.

The point is that you're saying "you're done" as if that's sensible, and it's not.

It's dumb....for an ante post punter as a 'rule'.

[Lobos]

The point is that you're saying "you're done" as if that's sensible, and it's not.

It's dumb....for an ante post punter as a 'rule'.

Not dumb for me though. I've always stopped at this point. I start as soon as the Fez finishes and stop pretty much when NRNB starts. By that time I've got on board what I want for the majority of the races excluding the handicaps. I hate the NRNB stage as prices are cut ridiculously imo. That's why I try to get in early and add along the way and get the best AP or TWAR prices around on the horses I feel will fill the top 2/3 SP places on the day. At this time I don't expect many entries in the top races at the DRF to be missing from my portfolio so even though their prices may change from this point I'd still be confident in having the majority of the winners at that meeting within my lot. From now until March I build a big cash bank to take with me over the week not only for betting but drinking and eating as well. Its how I've done it for many years now and it works for me so I'm not for changing . Everyone works differently and they have their reasons for that just like I have. No way is the right way or the wrong way it's just what suits the individual and what they feel comfortable with. As long as the results are good.....don't change !

[Kevloaf]

Not dumb for me though. I've always stopped at this point. I start as soon as the Fez finishes and stop pretty much when NRNB starts. By that time I've got on board what I want for the majority of the races excluding the handicaps. I hate the NRNB stage as prices are cut ridiculously imo. That's why I try to get in early and add along the way and get the best AP or TWAR prices around on the horses I feel will fill the top 2/3 SP places on the day. At this time I don't expect many entries in the top races at the DRF to be missing from my portfolio so even though their prices may change from this point I'd still be confident in having the majority of the winners at that meeting within my lot. From now until March I build a big cash bank to take with me over the week not only for betting but drinking and eating as well. Its how I've done it for many years now and it works for me so I'm not for changing . Everyone works differently and they have their reasons for that just like I have. No way is the right way or the wrong way it's just what suits the individual and what they feel comfortable with. As long as the results are good.....don't change !

Well if it ain't broke, don't fix it

[Istabraq]

Lobos
I don’t really want to get involved here but I’m fascinated why you believe being ‘done’ in mid Jan is sensible, do you not believe there’s a single performance/formline etc between now and early March that could increase your chances of winning ?
Aside from form targets will start to become clearer too, believing you can’t increase your chances of winning for 7 weeks just seems and odd view to have...

[Carnage at Taunton]

Surprised to see 3 or 4 bookies still have Glorious Zoff at 33-1 for this after yesterday's impressive little prep on the all-weather.

You can still get 25-1 nrnb with PP.

Surprised they're taking any chances on Gordon setting one up for a good mark.

Are we missing something or have they taken their eye off the ball?

SP Book boosted to 28 nrnb for me just now........if that helps anyone.

[Skysthelimit]

We all have different strategies and approaches and this is part of the fun and challenge and what makes this place so interesting.

The best thing about this forum is learning from others and this forum has really opened my eyes to the value of starting early and looking ahead. If anyone wants to see a fantastic example of this have a look at Spectre’s diary and position. Lobos has also got some great early positions.

FWIW the NRNB period is really important to me, there are some great opportunities to get some really good prices at low risk. I’ll give one recent example and one from the past.

Energumene was 14/1 earlier this week and was a well supported favourite at Naas. Most of us really like him but weren’t sure where he would go. Running over 2 miles on Monday an impressive win meant he was likely to shorten up and if he got beat he was very likely to step up in trip and you just wait to get your money back.

Back in 2017, Sizing John was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time in the Irish Gold Cup. Prior to the race he had been a two mile horse but his last run was a win over 2m4f where he stayed on really well at the end of the race. There were questions around whether he would stay 3 miles but B365 went 33/1 for the Gold Cup NRNB. If he didn’t stay there was no way he would be going further in Gold Cup and you’d get your money back. A win and you’ve got a great bet. The rest is history and was also the end of my relationship with B365!

This approach won’t be for everyone. It involves tying up funds and sometimes being left with bets you don’t want. However, if you are selective (follow a lot of the great views on here helps), the period of NRNB isn’t one I would miss. Hopefully my rambling might be useful particularly to anyone new to punting on the festival.

[Quevega]

Lobos
I don’t really want to get involved here but I’m fascinated why you believe being ‘done’ in mid Jan is sensible, do you not believe there’s a single performance/formline etc between now and early March that could increase your chances of winning ?
Aside from form targets will start to become clearer too, believing you can’t increase your chances of winning for 7 weeks just seems and odd view to have...

I second this.
It's bullshit Lobos , as you will definitely have other bets, outside of the scope you've described.

Unless you're really stubborn ?

You should learn the meaning of a caveat. Or at least use them more often.


The funny thing about the discussion with Scooby last night (and I totally agreed with Scooby on the not shutting up shop point), was he said very similar things on his thread last year and previous years, and did the opposite, which I obviously pulled him up on.

Things like he was not going to have another bet in the arkle !
He was leaving the novice hurdles well alone until much nearer the day !

Did neither.

[Quevega]

We all have different strategies and approaches and this is part of the fun and challenge and what makes this place so interesting.

The best thing about this forum is learning from others and this forum has really opened my eyes to the value of starting early and looking ahead. If anyone wants to see a fantastic example of this have a look at Spectre’s diary and position. Lobos has also got some great early positions.

FWIW the NRNB period is really important to me, there are some great opportunities to get some really good prices at low risk. I’ll give one recent example and one from the past.

Energumene was 14/1 earlier this week and was a well supported favourite at Naas. Most of us really like him but weren’t sure where he would go. Running over 2 miles on Monday an impressive win meant he was likely to shorten up and if he got beat he was very likely to step up in trip and you just wait to get your money back.

Back in 2017, Sizing John was stepped up to 3 miles for the first time in the Irish Gold Cup. Prior to the race he had been a two mile horse but his last run was a win over 2m4f where he stayed on really well at the end of the race. There were questions around whether he would stay 3 miles but B365 went 33/1 for the Gold Cup NRNB. If he didn’t stay there was no way he would be going further in Gold Cup and you’d get your money back. A win and you’ve got a great bet. The rest is history and was also the end of my relationship with B365!

This approach won’t be for everyone. It involves tying up funds and sometimes being left with bets you don’t want. However, if you are selective (follow a lot of the great views on here helps), the period of NRNB isn’t one I would miss. Hopefully my rambling might be useful particularly to anyone new to punting on the festival.

Yep.
I once heard Paul Kealy (and i like him) say that the NRNB was shit, and offered no value.
What a load of bollocks.
There are shitloads of value.

And this season it may be even better, as we have the option prior to Dublin and trials day, so the angles available should be even better, as i'm not sure we had NRNB all races until Feb last year, except maybe Skybet (can't remember)

[Nortons who]

Lobos
I don’t really want to get involved here but I’m fascinated why you believe being ‘done’ in mid Jan is sensible, do you not believe there’s a single performance/formline etc between now and early March that could increase your chances of winning ?
Aside from form targets will start to become clearer too, believing you can’t increase your chances of winning for 7 weeks just seems and odd view to have...

Lobos

Istabraq Coincidentally I take a similar approach to Lobos, easing right down from now until the Festival.

I do though:
# continue to add a few low cost NRNB win doubles to potentially close a few gaps and position myself better for the week of the Festival.
# utilise Free bets (otherwise might lose them as not fussed about using free bets elsewhere), some in the handicaps where targets are fairly clear but not NRNB and others within my weaker looking races.

Based on past experience, I have found that adding selections straight after winning performances at the DRF and Cheltenham trials meeting has not been particulary productive. This is undoubtedly because I have picked the wrong selections or just jumped on the bandwagon because it seemed s good idea at the time.

So my preference now is to accept I might miss some best prices, take a critical detailed look at every race once entries are finalised and again at declarations stage. Then I add, hedge and possibly lay a few off throughout the week.

I also spend valuable time over the next few weeks constructing shortlists for the handicaps based on previous race trends, then refine them once entries are made and then again once the weights are published. At that stage I will back a few more NRNB.

[Lobos]

An important point to make is its not just about the horses you back for the Fez it's also about the horses you don't get drawn into backing . We need to be disciplined and not just follow the money or back something that is running in a particular trial just because he/she may win and may then drop in price. I'll only back something if i actually fancy it to win a race. It ultimately saves me money and time .