Originally posted by BookieBasher
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The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
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Assuming that the Boodles is Duffle Coat's target, chances are if they run him between now and the festival, he'll be well minded, to keep or reduce his mark. Would it be advisable to wait until that run and hope for the price to drift or pull the trigger now at 20s with Hills? I see no entries for him over the xmas in Ireland.
Gordon did a podcast a couple of weeks back with The Final Furlong and basically confirmed Quillixios and Zanahiyr were his best juveniles, be strange if he sent Duffle Coat to the Triumph. By the process of elimination, this should be nailed on to be DC's target...
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Originally posted by PresentingPercy88 View PostAssuming that the Boodles is Duffle Coat's target, chances are if they run him between now and the festival, he'll be well minded, to keep or reduce his mark. Would it be advisable to wait until that run and hope for the price to drift or pull the trigger now at 20s with Hills? I see no entries for him over the xmas in Ireland.
Gordon did a podcast a couple of weeks back with The Final Furlong and basically confirmed Quillixios and Zanahiyr were his best juveniles, be strange if he sent Duffle Coat to the Triumph. By the process of elimination, this should be nailed on to be DC's target...
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Originally posted by PresentingPercy88 View PostAssuming that the Boodles is Duffle Coat's target, chances are if they run him between now and the festival, he'll be well minded, to keep or reduce his mark. Would it be advisable to wait until that run and hope for the price to drift or pull the trigger now at 20s with Hills? I see no entries for him over the xmas in Ireland.
Gordon did a podcast a couple of weeks back with The Final Furlong and basically confirmed Quillixios and Zanahiyr were his best juveniles, be strange if he sent Duffle Coat to the Triumph. By the process of elimination, this should be nailed on to be DC's target...
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
From Keith Donaghue comments it does sound as though he'll be joining Gordon's top 2 in the Triumph. He fully deserves his chance there and may well pick them both off if they cut each others throats up front and make it a proper test just like when Tiger Roll won the Triumph.
Worth noting he won the trial race in November on the old course, which is the same course The Boodles will be run on in March. Sending him for both his races in UK probably served to gage the opposition and get a fairer mark and not have the Irish tax of 4 or 5 lbs added to their Irish marks. IMO Adagio is not a great horse, I wouldn't be wild on his win last weekend, he came up against very little.
He might well run between now and March, and win, and blow his mark beyond 140 which will leave him with little option but to go for the Triumph. But I will be a layer if he runs before March. Don't think he would come within an ass's roar of Zanahiyr in the Triumph. And plenty of more juveniles yet to come from the yard, they have been talking that they are very strong handed this year in that department this season.
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Originally posted by PresentingPercy88 View Post
Just read his comments there, he's a classy horse which there is no doubt, but he said it himself, he's nowhere near the level of the two others in the yard. Might well be the owners call to go Triumph, don't think it will be what Elliott would recommend. They may leave it until final days declarations stage and see what the ground is like - heavy ground might be in his favour for a Triumph.
Worth noting he won the trial race in November on the old course, which is the same course The Boodles will be run on in March. Sending him for both his races in UK probably served to gage the opposition and get a fairer mark and not have the Irish tax of 4 or 5 lbs added to their Irish marks. IMO Adagio is not a great horse, I wouldn't be wild on his win last weekend, he came up against very little.
He might well run between now and March, and win, and blow his mark beyond 140 which will leave him with little option but to go for the Triumph. But I will be a layer if he runs before March. Don't think he would come within an ass's roar of Zanahiyr in the Triumph. And plenty of more juveniles yet to come from the yard, they have been talking that they are very strong handed this year in that department this season.
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Originally posted by Lobos View Post
All good points. I'd say the New Course which the Triumph is run over will suit DC even more as it's a stiffer course than the Old Course and may well eek out further improvement from him.
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Originally posted by PresentingPercy88 View Post
Should still be a decent price NRNB for the triumph when the bookies start offering those markets, might cover myself that way just in case
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What do we think of Saint Sam for this?
His last run was better than his debut but he doesn’t look like being up to the top table for the triumph. One more run in decent company or even a win in an easier juvenile race would see a reasonable handicap mark. Obviously needs a third run am I right in saying? Mullins has Ha D’Or, Youmdor and possibly Bring On The Night as triumph hopefuls, would be surprised if he runs anymore than 2/3 in that.
Not priced up anywhere yet but one to keep an eye on I think.
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Originally posted by Craigy14 View PostWhat do we think of Saint Sam for this?
His last run was better than his debut but he doesn’t look like being up to the top table for the triumph. One more run in decent company or even a win in an easier juvenile race would see a reasonable handicap mark. Obviously needs a third run am I right in saying? Mullins has Ha D’Or, Youmdor and possibly Bring On The Night as triumph hopefuls, would be surprised if he runs anymore than 2/3 in that.
Not priced up anywhere yet but one to keep an eye on I think.
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
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I don't think Willie was plotting him for anything. I just don't think he's good enough for a Triumph. Not sure what he'll have 'in-hand' on whatever mark he gets is probably fair.
Any horse can be improved for March, but whatever mark he gets is probably very fair... and may not have as much hidden as he would if he'd been campaigned in another stable. IMO of course.
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