The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Saxon Warrior]

TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 23rd

CHELTENHAM Tuesday, March 15th
THE BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 1)
(Registered as the Fred Winter) (Grade 3)
TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 80,000
Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code GBP 45,016 to the winning horse The second to receive GBP 16,960, the third GBP 8,488, the fourth GBP 4,240, the fifth GBP 2,128, the sixth GBP 1,064, the seventh GBP 528 and the eighth GBP 272

for juvenile four yrs old

TWO MILES ABOUT HALF A FURLONG (2m 87yds)

Enter by noon, February 23rd and pay GBP 110 stake
Confirm by noon, March 10th and pay GBP 290
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 13th
Weights published on.........March 3rd
Lowest weight...........10st,
Highest Weight..........11st 10lb
Penalties, after February 28yj, 2022, a winner of a hurdle race.......... 5lb
(No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 10lb)

PLEASE NOTE: A novice or juvenile horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of three times in Hurdle Races in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code

2021. Jeff Kidder 1-10-8 80/1 Noel Meade - Sean Flanagan RPR 131 (OR 125)
2020. Aramax 4-10-12 5/1F Gordon Elliott - Barry Geraghty RPR 138 (OR 138)
2019. Band Of Outlaws 4-11-8 7/2F Joseph O'Brien - J J Slevin RPR 147 (OR 139)
2018. Veneer Of Charm 4-11-0 33/1 Gordon Elliott - Jack Kennedy RPR 135 (OR 129)
2017. Flying Tiger 4-11-5 33/1 Nick Williams - Richard Johnson RPR 137 (OR 134)
2016. Diego du Charmil 4-11-1 13/2 Paul Nicholls - Sam Twiston-Davies RPR 137 (OR 133)
2015. Qualando 4-11-0 25/1 Paul Nicholls - Nick Scholfield RPR 133 (OR 131)
2014. Hawk High 4-11-1 33/1 Tim Easterby - Brian Hughes RPR 130 (OR 130)
2013. Flaxen Flare 4-10-7 25/1 Gordon Elliott - Davy Condon RPR 140 (OR 127)
2012. Une Artiste 4-10-8 40/1 Nicky Henderson - Jeremiah McGrath RPR 133 (OR 127)
2011. What A Charm 4-10-6 9/1 Arthur Moore - Paul Townend RPR 121 (OR 115)


2021 1st OR 125, 2nd OR 139, 3rd OR 124, 4th OR 128 (Highest OR 141, Lowest OR 123) 22 ran
2020. 1st OR 138, 2nd OR 133, 3rd OR 133, 4th OR 132 (Highest OR 140, Lowest OR 129) 22 ran
2019. 1st OR 139, 2nd OR 134, 3rd OR 132, 4th OR 129 (Highest OR 141, Lowest OR 129) 21 ran
2018. 1st OR 129, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 135, 4th OR 132 (Highest OR 139, Lowest OR 129) 22 ran
2017.1st OR 134, 2nd OR 139, 3rd OR 130, 4th OR 138 (Highest OR 139, Lowest OR 124) 22 ran
2016. 1st OR 133, 2nd OR 136, 3rd OR 132, 4th OR 132 (Highest OR 142, Lowest OR 128) 22 ran
2015. 1st OR 131, 2nd OR 136, 3rd OR 133, 4th OR 136 (Highest OR 141, Lowest OR 129) 22 ran
2014. 1st OR 130, 2nd OR 130, 3rd OR 127, 4th OR 128 (Highest OR 139, Lowest OR 128) 24 ran
2013. 1st OR 127, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 130, 4th OR 126 (Highest OR 144, Lowest OR 124) 24 ran
2012. 1st OR 127, 2nd OR 135, 3rd OR 129, 4th OR 130 (Highest OR 138, Lowest OR 125) 24 ran
2011. 1st OR 115, 2nd OR 133, 3rd OR 119, 4th OR 131 (Highest OR 133, Lowest OR 109) 23 ran

There’s less point looking at top and bottom weights pre-2013 given the maximum of 135 was abandoned after 2012.

15 French breds in the first 3 over 8 years, is a big indicator that since the weight range was lifted that trainers are able to source into France to meet the requirements of this race, and buy better horses to run in it.

All dates for entries etc have been moved forward 6 days to match the race being 6 days later in 2021.

No Jump Racing Pattern programme has been produced yet, so we dont know these entry dates for sure yet, nor the prize money values (I will update in full when these are known)

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Betting as of 15-12-20 (Hills)

20/1
Duffle Coat

33/1
Viroflay
Hacker des Places
Overpriced Mixer
Glorious Zoff
Ilmig
First Impression
Flying Scotsman
Palm Beach

[Kotkijet]

Figure on the obscured by the filter icon is the peak RPR achieved prior to making UK/IRE hurdles debut.



And here's one I prepared earlier.



Happy to do requests when I have the time if anybody can think of a trends angle.

Any market at this stage would be utterly ridiculous but has anybody formed a book for this race yet? Can't see anything on Oddschecker.

[Saxon Warrior]

Figure on the obscured by the filter icon is the peak RPR achieved prior to making UK/IRE hurdles debut.



And here's one I prepared earlier.



Happy to do requests when I have the time if anybody can think of a trends angle.

Any market at this stage would be utterly ridiculous but has anybody formed a book for this race yet? Can't see anything on Oddschecker.

The market for the Boodles won’t be until the New Year.

We can spot some likely ones for it through maiden races along the way though.

[Istabraq]

Don’t ever let it be said this forum offers little by way of valuable information.
Outstanding work as always SW and Kotkijet...

[Saxon Warrior]

Today the BHA has issued two Gordon Elliott juveniles with UK handicap marks, as they have a Cheltenham entry this weekend.

Duffle Coat 140
Glorious Zoff 131

[Aldie1988]

Been keenly watching since the start of November lads, keep up the good work! Worth its weight in gold

[Kevloaf]

Today the BHA has issued two Gordon Elliott juveniles with UK handicap marks, as they have a Cheltenham entry this weekend.

Duffle Coat 140
Glorious Zoff 131

I wonder if he'll put Duffle Coat away with that?

[Istabraq]

Today the BHA has issued two Gordon Elliott juveniles with UK handicap marks, as they have a Cheltenham entry this weekend.

Duffle Coat 140
Glorious Zoff 131

I’m not pretending handicapping is easy but this is why trainers choose a less than honest path with their novices...

[Kotkijet]

Here is a list of all the Gordon Elliott Fred Winter runners since 2009 and where they made their debuts. Curiously, only Clarcam ran in GB for the yard ahead of a tilt at the Fred Winter, finishing second at Musselburgh in their Triumph trial before falling at the Festival. Similarly, Carlito Brigante ran at both meetings before contesting the Triumph in 2010 so it is not a well trod path historically speaking.



As for those ratings, Duffle Coat is stiff on what he's actually achieved but has always managed to surpass his trainer's expectations to date. 131 for Glorious Zoff looks lenient on what he did to Crassus at Sligo given that the latter was in the process of running a big race behind Zanahiyr on his previous outing and has since broke his duck in a fair looking race at Limerick.

[Kevloaf]

Maybe 'running' here isn't the way to spot the Elliott plots, but I am sure as I can be that they get entered to find the marks and he works it out from there...

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the Boodles because of Duffle Coat.


It makes it all sound quite simple, but with the numbers of horses and ability to improve them that he has, it's so hard to ignore.

[OverTheLast]

'Damage Control'

Elliott and Noel Moran.

Get on and thank me in March.

[Saxon Warrior]

Maybe 'running' here isn't the way to spot the Elliott plots, but I am sure as I can be that they get entered to find the marks and he works it out from there...

I wouldn't be surprised if he wins the Boodles because of Duffle Coat.


It makes it all sound quite simple, but with the numbers of horses and ability to improve them that he has, it's so hard to ignore.

I keep a list of all Gordon’s UK “entries” that get handicap marks, including those like Duffle Coat, Fakiera and Glorious Zoff that he enters in non-handicaps, knowing the UK handicapper will give them a handicap rating.

He wouldn’t be entering them at Cheltenham (or elsewhere in the UK) if he wasn’t interested in working from that rating.
He doesn’t enter many over here.

If it’s too high, he could draw stumps on the idea for that horse coming over.
If it’s a mark he can work on, then expect one or more entries for the Festival Handicaps.

Dallas Des Pictons and Eclair de Beaufeu were two obvious ones he entered in Nov/Dec in Cheltenham Handicap Hurdles two years ago, then it was easy to follow the race programme as they headed for the County Hurdle and Martin Pipe.

[ComplyOrDie]

'Damage Control'

Elliott and Noel Moran.

Get on and thank me in March.

Could he fair shout, tbf.

Feel free to get him priced up

[Kevloaf]

Excellent SW, how far back do you have them?

I 'know it's an angle but haven't got the facts and data to back it up or prove it.

[Saxon Warrior]

Excellent SW, how far back do you have them?

I 'know it's an angle but haven't got the facts and data to back it up or prove it.

Horse	Trainer	Date of Rating	Race and Type	Distance	Irish Rating	UK Rating	Difference	Runner?	Final Position
Tullybeg	Gordon Elliott	23rd October	Ballymore Trial Hurdle	2M4F	0	0	0
Galvin	Gordon Elliott	23rd October	3M Novice Chase	3M	148	152	4
Grand Roi	Gordon Elliott (tfr from Nicky H)	24th October	2M 4yo Hurdle	2M	140	140	0
Tullybeg	Gordon Elliott	24th October	3M Pertemps Qualifier	3M	0		0
Dallas Des Pictons	Gordon Elliott	24th October	3M Pertemps Qualifier	3M	144		-144
Tullybeg	Gordon Elliott	24th October	3M Novice Hurdle	3M	0		0
Streets Of Doyen	John McConnell	24th October	3M Novice Hurdle	3M	130		-130
Fakiera (novice)	Gordon Elliott	13th November	2M5F Handicap Hurdle	2M5F	0		0
Elite Trooper Grey	Gordon Elliott	11th December	2M1F Handicap Hurdle	2M1F	114	120	6
Column Of Fire	Gordon Elliott	13th December	3M Pertemps Qualifier	3M	145	148	3		Prov 148
Commander Of Fleet	Gordon Elliott	13th December	3M Pertemps Qualifier	3M	149	149	0
Duffle Coat	Gordon Elliott	12th December	2M Juvenile Hurdle	2M	0	140	140		Prov 140
Glorious Zoff	Gordon Elliott	12th December	2M Juvenile Hurdle	2M	0	131	131
Fakeira	Gordon Elliott	12th December	3M Grade 2 Novice Hurdle	3M	133	141	8
Make Good	John McConnell	12th December	3M Grade 2 Novice Hurdle	3M	131	137	6
Amor Verdadero	Gordon Elliott	12th December	2M4F Mares Hcap Hurdle	2M4F	105	113	8