The Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

[Quevega]

I think these juvenile ratings can be stupidly inflated & don’t necessarily agree with them, but putting my UK handicapper hat on, I’d probably have Quilixios 151 and zanahiyr 153. That’s using adagio and other juveniles that have already been rated as a baseline to work from.

I do think Quilixios hasn’t had a race yet, so we’re yet to see what his true ceiling is (suppose the same could be said for zanahiyr) but he looks outright made for a triumph hurdle. Let something go a good clip out from and then take it up hard jumping the last staying on strongly to the line.

I will be absolutely gutted if they go for the handicap with him, gutted I tell you

If we're right with the ratings then I think you'll be fine.

[Madmoose]

Isn’t there a ceiling of 145 for this race like the Martin Pipe?

[Quevega]

Isn’t there a ceiling of 145 for this race like the Martin Pipe?

Not any more

[Splinterboy82]

147 would be lenient and Id think it likely he could be 150 or higher. Aspire tower got 152 last year. Sir erec 151 the year before. He’s got 4 1s next to his name & beat a decent field comfortably at Leopardstown, much more comfortably than the bare 6 lengths.

selfishly I hope he gets mullered by the capper but also as a racing fan I do as well

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/dashel-drasher-battles-to-first-grade-1-success/

Looks like Quilixios is 147 according to BHA handicappers blog released before this weekend....quite from above link:

“There was also a change at the top of the GB juvenile division following Monmiral’s comprehensive success over Nassalam (141) in a conditions event at Haydock. The latter had given Adagio (145) a good race in the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow on his previous start but was brushed aside impressively by Paul Nicholls’ charge who maintained his unbeaten record over timber. A new rating of 147 puts Monmiral top of the pile amongst the British-trained juveniles, usurping Adagio, and has him behind only the Gordon Elliott-trained Zanahiyr in the overall pecking order (Zanahiyr’s stablemate Quilixios is also 147). He would clearly be a strong contender for the Triumph if supplemented (isn’t entered at present) but he’s reportedly likely to skip Cheltenham and head to Aintree.”

[ToniC]

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/dashel-drasher-battles-to-first-grade-1-success/

Looks like Quilixios is 147 according to BHA handicappers blog released before this weekend....quite from above link:

“There was also a change at the top of the GB juvenile division following Monmiral’s comprehensive success over Nassalam (141) in a conditions event at Haydock. The latter had given Adagio (145) a good race in the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow on his previous start but was brushed aside impressively by Paul Nicholls’ charge who maintained his unbeaten record over timber. A new rating of 147 puts Monmiral top of the pile amongst the British-trained juveniles, usurping Adagio, and has him behind only the Gordon Elliott-trained Zanahiyr in the overall pecking order (Zanahiyr’s stablemate Quilixios is also 147). He would clearly be a strong contender for the Triumph if supplemented (isn’t entered at present) but he’s reportedly likely to skip Cheltenham and head to Aintree.”

Surely that Quilixios rating is from his Chepstow entry? In which case, he will almost certainly be higher now

[Quevega]

l

https://www.britishhorseracing.com/dashel-drasher-battles-to-first-grade-1-success/

Looks like Quilixios is 147 according to BHA handicappers blog released before this weekend....quite from above link:

“There was also a change at the top of the GB juvenile division following Monmiral’s comprehensive success over Nassalam (141) in a conditions event at Haydock. The latter had given Adagio (145) a good race in the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow on his previous start but was brushed aside impressively by Paul Nicholls’ charge who maintained his unbeaten record over timber. A new rating of 147 puts Monmiral top of the pile amongst the British-trained juveniles, usurping Adagio, and has him behind only the Gordon Elliott-trained Zanahiyr in the overall pecking order (Zanahiyr’s stablemate Quilixios is also 147). He would clearly be a strong contender for the Triumph if supplemented (isn’t entered at present) but he’s reportedly likely to skip Cheltenham and head to Aintree.”

That explains a lot.
And is lenient.
Makes Aspire Tower's mark last year look unfair.
Although since proven to be correct of course

[Splinterboy82]

Surely that Quilixios rating is from his Chepstow entry? In which case, he will almost certainly be higher now

No he was 140 then, I made a note at the time as he’d run 3 times in case Gordon wrapped him up for a big plunge....defo new rating as of last week, maybe he’ll adjust but no correlating form to really need to unless while frame of ratings band

[Craigy14]

What I can’t understand is why run him in the grade 1 at leopardstown if this was the plan?

Rated 140 back then he could have just ran him in another juvenile race and kept his mark down.

Must have been an idea within the last week and I for one have no idea why he’s potentially decided this.

Its compete bullshit for racing, yes he trains both horses but he doesn’t own them. If I was the owners Cheveley Park I’d be telling him he is running in the triumph.

Its just nonsense. We have horses avoiding each other all season, now at the pinnacle he’s splitting 2 grade 1 horses so they don’t race each other. I can’t for the life of me understand the decision. He may think Zanahiyr will beat him, so what, it’s not proven that will happen.

Suppose we’ll find out post weights if Q is on a 147 mark, likely get a statement soon after.

[Kevloaf]

What I can’t understand is why run him in the grade 1 at leopardstown if this was the plan?

Rated 140 back then he could have just ran him in another juvenile race and kept his mark down.

Must have been an idea within the last week and I for one have no idea why he’s potentially decided this.

Its compete bullshit for racing, yes he trains both horses but he doesn’t own them. If I was the owners Cheveley Park I’d be telling him he is running in the triumph.

Its just nonsense. We have horses avoiding each other all season, now at the pinnacle he’s splitting 2 grade 1 horses so they don’t race each other. I can’t for the life of me understand the decision. He may think Zanahiyr will beat him, so what, it’s not proven that will happen.

Suppose we’ll find out post weights if Q is on a 147 mark, likely get a statement soon after.

They may look at bringing in the ratings cap again.... if it does happen, it's hopefully the first and last time?

[riccirich]

For anyone who hasnt already done it, a good cover for this scenario is quilixios (boodles) doubled with zanahiyr (triumph) if you think the 6/1 on quilixios for the boodles is too short.

if elliott sends quilixios to the boodles off top weight he must obviously think he is a lot better than his other entries in that race, who are all fancied runners in their own right, while also being very confident that zanahiyr has everything covered in the triumph.

The double is probably best price about 23/1 if the 6s for quilixios in the boodles is still available.

[HoldenTheReins]

For anyone who hasnt already done it, a good cover for this scenario is quilixios (boodles) doubled with zanahiyr (triumph) if you think the 6/1 on quilixios for the boodles is too short.

if elliott sends quilixios to the boodles off top weight he must obviously think he is a lot better than his other entries in that race, who are all fancied runners in their own right, while also being very confident that zanahiyr has everything covered in the triumph.

The double is probably best price about 23/1 if the 6s for quilixios in the boodles is still available.

No 6's left for Quilixios

[Goldentouch]

Ladbrokes are offering 5/1 (11/2 boosted)

[Saxon Warrior]

What I can’t understand is why run him in the grade 1 at leopardstown if this was the plan?

Rated 140 back then he could have just ran him in another juvenile race and kept his mark down.

Must have been an idea within the last week and I for one have no idea why he’s potentially decided this.

Its compete bullshit for racing, yes he trains both horses but he doesn’t own them. If I was the owners Cheveley Park I’d be telling him he is running in the triumph.

Its just nonsense. We have horses avoiding each other all season, now at the pinnacle he’s splitting 2 grade 1 horses so they don’t race each other. I can’t for the life of me understand the decision. He may think Zanahiyr will beat him, so what, it’s not proven that will happen.

Suppose we’ll find out post weights if Q is on a 147 mark, likely get a statement soon after.

It would be a shocking decision for the NH season, and would spell the end of the Boodles being an open-ended handicap.

I don’t really see the sense of it.

Just because a 7lb claimer could be employed to take the weight off? - hmmmm - I would think the other owners with runners in the race at Gordon’s stable (for starters) would ask for the same, and claimers booked for them too - defeating the object.

Nothing stopping other trainers employing the same tactic too.

[Saxon Warrior]

For anyone who hasnt already done it, a good cover for this scenario is quilixios (boodles) doubled with zanahiyr (triumph) if you think the 6/1 on quilixios for the boodles is too short.

if elliott sends quilixios to the boodles off top weight he must obviously think he is a lot better than his other entries in that race, who are all fancied runners in their own right, while also being very confident that zanahiyr has everything covered in the triumph.

The double is probably best price about 23/1 if the 6s for quilixios in the boodles is still available.

Maybe Gordon’s developed a God complex, and thinks everything he does has to be right.

I would think the BHA/racecourse would become well miffed if Grade 1 winners started targeting the relative peanuts prize money in the Boodles, rather than the Grade 1 Triumph.

Automatic rule amendment back to a 140-max rating in 2022, just for trying this on, whether the horse wins or not.

Maybe Gaillaird du Mesnil, Bravemansgame and Bob Olinger should run in the Coral Cup with a claimer on.
and
Metier and Appreciate It for the County Hurdle.

I think that’s the answer, scrap all of the Grade 1’s and fill the week with handicaps.

[Quevega]

Maybe Gordon’s developed a God complex, and thinks everything he does has to be right.

I would think the BHA/racecourse would become well miffed if Grade 1 winners started targeting the relative peanuts prize money in the Boodles, rather than the Grade 1 Triumph.

Automatic rule amendment back to a 140-max rating in 2022, just for trying this on, whether the horse wins or not.

Add in a ban on conditionals in high grade handicaps while we're at it.
Not ideal for Pro's who've done the hard yards is it ?