The CORAL CUP Handicap Hurdle

[nortonscoin200]

I think Janadil could end up here after a fall at the weekend and jumping badly the time before. Not even quoted for the Coral yet but off 148 he’d be a big player at a price.
Can’t see him turning up in a handicap chase now but JP will surely see this as a decent option after his fine season over hurdles as a novice - and this is probably a better option than the County.

[Saxon Warrior]

I think Janadil could end up here after a fall at the weekend and jumping badly the time before. Not even quoted for the Coral yet but off 148 he’d be a big player at a price.
Can’t see him turning up in a handicap chase now but JP will surely see this as a decent option after his fine season over hurdles as a novice - and this is probably a better option than the County.

148 is Janidil’s Irish Chase rating. They don’t quote a Hurdle rating on their HRI website.

Looking at the Racing Post site, Janidil was given a UK hurdle rating of 149 when he was entered and ran in the Albert Bartlett last March.

[nortonscoin200]

148 is Janidil’s Irish Chase rating. They don’t quote a Hurdle rating on their HRI website.

Looking at the Racing Post site, Janidil was given a UK hurdle rating of 149 when he was entered and ran in the Albert Bartlett last March.

Apologies SW, that was off the top of my head - should have checked.

Five of the last 7 Coral Cup winners have been rated between 148 and 153: Medinas (148), Whisper (153), Diamond King (149), Supasundae (148) and William Henry (151).

[Saxon Warrior]

Apologies SW, that was off the top of my head - should have checked.

Five of the last 7 Coral Cup winners have been rated between 148 and 153: Medinas (148), Whisper (153), Diamond King (149), Supasundae (148) and William Henry (151).

I think given his hurdle rating last season, he’s going to be late-140’s

[Can't Catch Me]

Could they be tempted by this with Blue Lord? WPM must fancy he has better darts for the novice races and would have a nice mark.

[Kevloaf]

Could they be tempted by this with Blue Lord? WPM must fancy he has better darts for the novice races and would have a nice mark.

Has he not been running on merit?

Has he hidden his ability?

[Can't Catch Me]

Has he not been running on merit?

Has he hidden his ability?

Don't doubt he has been running on merit Kev.

But first time up, over the intermediate distance he pulled like a lunatic the whole way and still finished 2nd to Bob Olinger with some decent horses behind, so I would mark that run up considerably myself. Then last time he finished 3rd to Appreciate It and Ballyadam, over a trip that is probably short of ideal, and he stayed on well. Just granted normal improvement for a novice like him, Id be very surprised if a mark of 140 represents the ceiling of his potential. A fast run festival race would look to suit him really well.

Not really sure it would normally be the Double Green's MO to go into a handicap with a horse that has been placed in Graded races, but think he could be a decent NRNB play.

[Kevloaf]

Don't doubt he has been running on merit Kev.

But first time up, over the intermediate distance he pulled like a lunatic the whole way and still finished 2nd to Bob Olinger with some decent horses behind, so I would mark that run up considerably myself. Then last time he finished 3rd to Appreciate It and Ballyadam, over a trip that is probably short of ideal, and he stayed on well. Just granted normal improvement for a novice like him, Id be very surprised if a mark of 140 represents the ceiling of his potential. A fast run festival race would look to suit him really well.

Not really sure it would normally be the Double Green's MO to go into a handicap with a horse that has been placed in Graded races, but think he could be a decent NRNB play.

Yes that's fair enough.

Not the usual plot as you say but he could well be much better than that rating in time!

[jonthehammer]

Blue Lord seems to be this years Captain Guinness, keeps finding excuses every race not to win, not getting him at all yet.

[Speedy17]

If Damalisque comes here he'd be one of my strongest handicap fancies of the week, don't think he got the 3m at DRF.

[Can't Catch Me]

Blue Lord seems to be this years Captain Guinness, keeps finding excuses every race not to win, not getting him at all yet.

Really Jon? In two runs over hurdles this season, its quite possible he will have only been beaten by the Ballymore winner and the Supreme 1st and 2nd! I think his form looks rock solid.

[Ray]

If Damalisque comes here he'd be one of my strongest handicap fancies of the week, don't think he got the 3m at DRF.

Hed be around the foot of the weights?

[Quevega]

Hed be around the foot of the weights?

Looks the type to get a few extra from the UK fella.

[nortonscoin200]

NB: HEALTH WARNING (prepared to be bored witless if you read this)


Been trying to work out a way to narrow down the search for the sort of horse likely to run well in this race at decent odds.

Looked at the last 5 runnings of the Coral Cup.

10 of the 20 horses to finish in the first four - including 3 of the 5 winners - were rated 147-153.

That's a pretty narrow band and accounted for only 37 of the 127 runners over that period.

So more than one in four (27 per cent) of horses rated 147-153 made the frame.

That compares to just one in 9 (11 per cent) of the 90 horses who were rated 137-146 and 154-156.

What's more, even though the 147-153 rated horses performed markedly better - their SPs were also better than the other group.

Prices of the 147-153 brigade were: 33-1, 28-1, 28-1, 14-1, 9-1, 8-1, 16-1, 10-1, 66-1, 12-1 Total 224…average SP 22-1
Prices of the 137-146 and 154-156 group were: 5-1, 12-1, 10-1, 10-1, 20-1, 16-1, 33-1, 16-1, 28-1, 8-1 Total 158 average SP just under 16-1.

So finding a horse who fits the bill in that 147-153 rating range seems to offer punters a significant edge here.

Out of those 10 horses who hit the frame from the 147-153 bracket:

7 of them had decent/strong previous Festival form.
5 of them had at least one outing in a chase in their prep races that season.
8 of them were aged 8-10 which I found surprising.
Aged 6: 1
Aged 7: 1
Aged 8: 4
Aged 9: 2
Aged 10: 2
5 were Irish trained: Gordie (2), Willie, Jessie and Noel Meade.
The 5 English based horses were with: Hendo (2), Twiston-Davies, Nicholls and Jojjo.
So every horse was with a front rank handler.

So which horses could be on the short-list this time round?

Here are a few possibles who may fall in that 147-153 band although it's hard to be too dogmatic about Irish horses because the handicapper might have other ideas:

Bacardys (151 10year-old, 3rd in the Stayers Hurdle last year. 3 in the Champion Bumper in 2016 (Betfair go 20-1 NRNB)

Call Me Lord (150)8-year-old, 13th in Champion Hurdle last year at 10-1, won Unibet Hurdle in 2019. (Betfair 20-1NRNB)

On The Blind Side (153) 9-year-old, 2 decent runs over 3miles at the track this season. Pulled up in the RSA only Festival appearance (Sky 16-1 NRNB)

Others quoted by the bookies include The Bosses Oscar (151)unlikely to run here, Column of Fire (144) would no doubt get extra from the h'capper if he came here, Cracking Smart (150) who was 4th in this last year and is a tempting 40-1 NRNB with Skybet. Also Black Tears (147) who was second in this last year (best price 25-1 or 18-1 NRNB) and my old pal Janidil (149) who has been novice chasing without distinction since finishing 5th in the Bartlett.

I backed Black Tears each way a while ago before I did this little exercise and I'd be interested in a NRNB price on Janidil if anyone can get one.

The stats are heavily against horses at the foot of the handicap - only 2 horses rated below 140 have made the frame in the last 5 years. They were both 3rd off 139 and 137.

Here's how they finished (1 to 4) in the last 5 years rating-wise:

2020: 140. 144 139. 153
2019: 151. 153 148. 146
2018: 143. 150 137. 151
2017: 148. 148. 146. 147
2016: 149. 140. 144. 141



2020


4th Cracking Smart (8) 33-1 off 153 (less 7lb claimer) Gordie. 7 prep runs, first 4 over fences. Won Grade 2 at Naas over 2m 5f off 11st 3lb in last prep. 11th in Coral beaten 10 lengths off 11st 9lbs at 12-1 in 2019. Gordie.

2019

1st William Henry (9) 28-1 off 151. Pulled up in only prep. Then had wind op. 4th in this in 2018 off 151 (less 3lb claimer) at 8-1 joint fav. Hendo.

2nd Wicklow Brave (9) off 153 at 28-1 2nd in Grade 3 over 2m at Naas behind Espoir D’Allen in January. 7th in Champion Hurdle previous season. Willie.

3rd Ballyandy (8) 14-1 off 148. Twiston-D. 2nd in 28k Ascot handicap over 2m 3f off 11st 12lbs in February. 5 previous prep runs - first 2 over fences. 4th in 2017 Supreme.

2018

2nd Topofthegame (6) 9-1 off 150. Nicholls, carried 11st 9lbs. Won Betfair Hurdle in February. 2 previous outings, the first in a chase.

4th William Henry (8) 8-1 jf off 151 (less 3lb claim). Won Lanzarotte Hurdle previous start and twice ran well at Cheltenham but not at the festival. Hendo.

2017:

1st Supasundae (7) at 16-1 off 148. 4th in Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle at Navan in February. 7th in Supreme previous season. Jessie.

2nd Tarquin Du Seiul(10) at 12-1 off 148. Last 3 prep races over fences after 1 hurdle run to start campaign. 6th in Ryanair previous season. Won 2014 JLT and 6th in 2013 Neptune. Jonjo.

4th Monksland (10) at 66-1 off 147 (less 3lbs claimer). 3 chase runs followed by 2 over hurdles in prep for this. 3rd in 2012 Neptune, 14th in 2015 Stayers Hurdle. Noel Meade.


2016:

1st Diamond King (8) at 12-1 off 149. 3 hurdle preps. Last time out won 8k 2m 4f hurdle at Punchestown in January. No Festival experience.Gordie.

[ComplyOrDie]

I enjoy reading these sorts of things nortonscoin200 so thank you

I enjoy them even more when horses I like for the race and have already backed match quite a bit of the criteria in this case, Call Me Lord, who I actually got priced up in the first instance!