Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase - formerly the Browns Advisory

[ToniC]

I think he has discretion to do most things with marks to be fair.

Just found this on the BHA site, FYI:

“All handicappers use the same guideline. No horse can have its mark increased for anything that happens before the second last obstacle. Once a horse gets to that obstacle it comes down to the handicapper’s judgement whether a rise is appropriate. While this isn’t an ideal solution, a line has to be drawn somewhere to suggest a cut-off point when a race is too far from the finish to suggest a definitive estimate”

[Spectre]

That is an interesting stat Lobos, I thought it was wrong but yes Festival debut not Cheltenham debut, most of the horses in the top 10 of the betting have raced at the festival before.

A horse making his festival debut is Protecktorat. I wonder if his poor run on the weekend was part of his handicap plot and not a horse on the decline. He’s gone off the radar after being a hype horse a few months ago and with Spirit of the Games possibly heading towards the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle maybe Protecktorat is the Skeletons main hope this festival

It's a stat to note, but it's one I'm happy to dismiss. It'll take something from left-field to uphold it this year given the market is doiminated by horses that have been to the Festival before. It's a race that runners from the previous season have a habit of running well again in too.

[Quevega]

Just found this on the BHA site, FYI:

“All handicappers use the same guideline. No horse can have its mark increased for anything that happens before the second last obstacle. Once a horse gets to that obstacle it comes down to the handicapper’s judgement whether a rise is appropriate. While this isn’t an ideal solution, a line has to be drawn somewhere to suggest a cut-off point when a race is too far from the finish to suggest a definitive estimate”

Not conclusive is it.
With what they did recently with Shishkin's mark, I'd be pretty sure he'll do what the fuck he wants to do.

Assigning a mark after three runs is different to whether a rise is appropriate. Or could be argued as such.

Anyway, I certainly don't know any of this for sure.
I'll not be backing it yet myself as I've backed his other 2 in the race, but will watch with interest to see if he's declared at the weekend. They seem keen to run him, for some reason. But seems unlikely it's in preparation for Cheltenham.

[Middle_Of_March]

That is an interesting stat Lobos, I thought it was wrong but yes Festival debut not Cheltenham debut, most of the horses in the top 10 of the betting have raced at the festival before.

A horse making his festival debut is Protecktorat. I wonder if his poor run on the weekend was part of his handicap plot and not a horse on the decline. He’s gone off the radar after being a hype horse a few months ago and with Spirit of the Games possibly heading towards the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle maybe Protecktorat is the Skeletons main hope this festival

Was rewatching the handicaps from last year for hard luck stories and I 100% remember seeing Protektorat in the Coral Cup out wide as they swung for home in the bright yellow Politologue colours. So not festival debut.

[Carnage at Taunton]

That is an interesting stat Lobos, I thought it was wrong but yes Festival debut not Cheltenham debut, most of the horses in the top 10 of the betting have raced at the festival before.

A horse making his festival debut is Protecktorat. I wonder if his poor run on the weekend was part of his handicap plot and not a horse on the decline. He’s gone off the radar after being a hype horse a few months ago and with Spirit of the Games possibly heading towards the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle maybe Protecktorat is the Skeletons main hope this festival

TKK, It looked to me that the Skeltons went up to Scotland to get as many winners as they could as they have been everywhere lately, just think for whatever reason the horse just ain’t the same as early in the season, nowhere near in fact.
And to think I thought he was a credible rival to EA!!!

[Big Bucks]

Correct MOM because I backed him in the coral! (Protektorat)

[Native River]

Only 3 of the 11 horses priced under 20/1 have entries here, so there is definitely value to be had here! (A Wave Of The Sea, Conflated & Farclas)

I know the case for Midnight Shadow has been made long before now but he still looks a good punt at 20s based on that run behind Chatham Street Lad, and the hurdles run last weekend stinks of a run to protect the chase mark.

[Saxon Warrior]

Only 3 of the 11 horses priced under 20/1 have entries here, so there is definitely value to be had here! (A Wave Of The Sea, Conflated & Farclas)

I know the case for Midnight Shadow has been made long before now but he still looks a good punt at 20s based on that run behind Chatham Street Lad, and the hurdles run last weekend stinks of a run to protect the chase mark.

Yes, the market will collapse and reform today, based on its real entries not the imaginary ones.

Great time to look for true value, at that point, although for Irish horses we will still be guessing about ratings until next week.

Only the Boodles and Pertemps have mature markets, the other 7 handicaps will have restructured markets this afternoon when the entries are published and the bookmakers strip out all the non-runners and replace them with the horses that are entered.

There's got to be some value to be had then.

[Grand Canyon]

could anybody confirm if Benatar only entry is here in the plate?


Rated 138, but entered at Warwick on Friday.

Form in behind Chatam Street Lad makes him of interest.

[Lobos]

Only 3 of the 11 horses priced under 20/1 have entries here, so there is definitely value to be had here! (A Wave Of The Sea, Conflated & Farclas)

I know the case for Midnight Shadow has been made long before now but he still looks a good punt at 20s based on that run behind Chatham Street Lad, and the hurdles run last weekend stinks of a run to protect the chase mark.

Yep. Of those, only Conflated is a festival virgin so I'm very interested in him.

[Topofthegame2021]

Quick question: as this is now sponsored by PP are we expecting any promotions or specials on this exclusive to PP?

[Istabraq]

Quick question: as this is now sponsored by PP are we expecting any promotions or specials on this exclusive to PP?

I'm sure there'll be some, but it doesn't always follow that the race sponsor has the best offers.
The Supreme has been sponsored by Sky for some time bow but it's the race Hills have gone all out on extra places for a few years now.
Didn't PP used to pay the Arkle runner up as a winner despite not sponsoring the race ?

[Lobos]

Quick question: as this is now sponsored by PP are we expecting any promotions or specials on this exclusive to PP?

They may go 8 places on the day ? Think this year there will be all sorts of specials and boosts in order to entice people in and make up for the lost millions on course.

[Lobos]

Is Capeland or Crossed My Mind entered here please ?

[Quevega]

Is Capeland or Crossed My Mind entered here please ?

https://twitter.com/ryanOTHx?ref_src...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Have a check.
Don't think crossed my mind is, or capeland

Looks like you're going alphabetically so the lists will help you