Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase - formerly the Browns Advisory

[Saxon Warrior]

TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 23rd

CHELTENHAM

Thursday, March 17th

THE BROWN ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE STABLE PLATE HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1)
(Grade 3)

TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 110,000

Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code
GBP 61,897 to the winning horse
The second to receive GBP 23,320,
the third GBP 11,671,
the fourth GBP5,830, the fifth GBP2,926, the sixth GBP1,463, the seventh GBP726 and the eighth GBP374

for five yrs old and upwards
TWO MILES ABOUT FOUR AND A HALF FURLONGS (2m 4f 127yds)

Enter by noon, February 23rd and pay GBP135 stake
Confirm by noon, March 13th and pay GBP415
Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 15th

Weights published on March 3rd

Penalties, after February 28th, 2022, a winner of a steeple chase 5lb
(No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)

PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of three times in Steeple Chases in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code


2021. The Shunter 8-10-5 9/4F Emmet Mullins - Jordan Gainford (7) RPR 154
2020. Simple The Betts 7-11-4 10/3F H. Whittington Gavin Sheehan RPR 158
2019. Siruh Du Lac. 6-10-8. 9/2. Nick Williams. Lizzie Kelly (3). RPR 151
2018. The Storyteller. 7-11-4. 5/1F. Gordon Elliott. Davy Russell. RPR 161
2017. Road To Respect. 6-10-13. 14/1. Noel Meade. B J Cooper. RPR 161
2016. Empire Of Dirt. 9-10-11. 16/1. C A Murphy. B J Cooper. RPR 154
2015. Darna. 9-10-11. 33/1. Kim Bailey David Bass. RPR 148
2014. Ballynagour. 8-10-9. 12/1. David Pipe. T. Scudamore. RPR 156
2013. Carrickboy. 9-10-5. 50/1. Venetia Williams. Liam Treadwell. RPR 149
2012. Salut Flo. 7-10-10. 9/2F. David Pipe. T. Scudamore. RPR 151
2011. Holmewood Legend 10-10-6. 25/1. Patrick Rodford. Keiran Burke(3). RPR 146


2021 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 146, 3rd OR 154, 4th OR 143 - Highest OR 154, Lowest OR 130, 21 ran
2020 1st OR 149, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 152 - Highest OR 157, Lowest OR 140. 23 ran
2019 1st OR 141, 2nd OR 156, 3rd OR 147 - Highest OR 156, Lowest OR 135. 22 ran
2018 1st OR 147, 2nd OR 137, 3rd OR 139 - Highest OR 155, Lowest OR 137. 22 ran
2017 1st OR 145, 2nd OR 146, 3rd OR 145 - Highest OR 158, Lowest OR 133. 24 ran
2016 1st OR 142, 2nd OR 149, 3rd OR 150 - Highest OR 157, Lowest OR 135. 22 ran
2015 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 138, 3rd OR 141 - Highest OR 155, Lowest OR 137. 23 ran
2014 1st OR 140, 2nd OR 146, 3rd OR 140 - Highest OR 157, Lowest OR 131. 23 ran
2013 1st OR 136, 2nd OR 145, 3rd OR 134 - Highest OR 157, Lowest OR 134. 22 ran
2012 1st OR 137, 2nd OR 128, 3rd OR 130 - Highest OR 153, Lowest OR 127. 22 ran
2011 1st OR 130, 2nd OR 127, 3rd OR 137 - Highest OR 147, Lowest OR 125. 20 ran



Clearly it seems that this race has had a boost in the quality of the runners with the lowest ratings rising in the last six years and 140+ horses taking over the winning from 130+.

The cancelling of the Novice Handicap Chase could lead to more novices rated above 140 targeting this race, which could drive up the Lowest OR required to get a run up by a 1lb or 2.

I will put the new betting market up on this first post when it arrives (could be around Boxing Day)

All dates for entries etc have been moved forward 6 days to match the race being 6 days later in 2021.

No Jump Racing Pattern programme has been produced yet, so we dont know these entry dates for sure yet, nor the prize money values (I will update in full when these are known)

xxxxxxxxxxxx

Betting as of 15-12-10 (Hills)


20/1
Clondaw Castle, Greaneteen. Spiritofthegames', Off You Go

25/1
Magic Saint, Midnight Shadow, Assemble, Siruh du Lac, Simply The Betts, Oldgrangewood, Mister Whitaker, Coole Cody,
Espoir de Guye, Al Dancer, Happy Diva, Phoenix Way, Sevarano

33/1
Ofalltheginjoints, Vision des Flos, Brelan d'As, Aso, Saint Sonnet, Moonlighter, Crossed My Mind, Not That Fuisse, Benatar
Demachine

40/1
January Jets

50/1
Kauto Riko

[Lobos]

Brilliant work once again Saxon. A real help.
Looking at the ratings of previous winners of this race I think we need a mid to low140 horse which brings me back to Shattered Love. It's her optimum trip, shes won at the fez and her rating I'm sure can be wriggled down to 145 or lower by Gordon. The one thing against her is her age but in that list of previous winners there are 3 9yo's and a 10yo so maybe it's not so big an issue. I'll be keeping a proper eye on her !

[Birds Nest]

Benatar 37s with hills boost... Lovely run there, just blew up at the end..

[doctorwu]

Benatar 37s with hills boost... Lovely run there, just blew up at the end..

Indeed it was BN. I'd be concerned he's a bit old as this race seems to go to a more progressive chaser these days. And with the loss of the handicap on the 1st day its gonna be even more of a race for 6/7yo.

[jackh50]

I’ll put up off you go for this one, his mark continues to drop and he looks particularly dangerous for a big handicap now, whether that’s at the festival or not we will have to wait and see.

I fully expect the Irish contingent to start mopping this race up again following the loss of the novices handicap. The race for me wouldn’t be one where I’d find trend analysis useful for the next few years at least.

[Pendil]

[QUOTE=Saxon Warrior;n3437][CENTER]TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 24th

CHELTENHAM

Thursday, March 18th

THE BROWN ADVISORY & MERRIEBELLE STABLE PLATE HANDICAP STEEPLE CHASE (CLASS 1



Clearly it seems that this race has had a boost in the quality of the runners with the lowest ratings rising in the last six years and 140+ horses taking over the winning from 130+.

The cancelling of the Novice Handicap Chase could lead to more novices rated above 140 targeting this race, which could drive up the Lowest OR required to get a run up by a 1lb or 2.

I completely agree with you on the mark needed to getting a run. With 20 novices between OR 140-145 now without the option of the novices handicap the game will be attaining a mark to be competitive but being High enough to get a run. Lowest OR could be 143+

[Might_Bite]

Cepage ran a horrid race yesterday but after going for the ultima last year, and running a big race but just not quite seeing it out. I can't help but think this will be this years aim.

The only price of 25s at the moment isn't as nice as you'd hope for after that run though.

[Eggs]

Cepage ran a horrid race yesterday but after going for the ultima last year, and running a big race but just not quite seeing it out. I can't help but think this will be this years aim.

The only price of 25s at the moment isn't as nice as you'd hope for after that run though.

....Cepage is 27-1 (with boost) in Hills TWAR market if you prefer to cover all bases.

[Might_Bite]

That is quite nice, but personally couldn't see him going for the ultima again. It'll be interesting to see if more bookies price up for the handicaps before his next race and if we get a better price.

[Faugheen_Machine]

That is quite nice, but personally couldn't see him going for the ultima again. It'll be interesting to see if more bookies price up for the handicaps before his next race and if we get a better price.

He was awful yesterday and nothing like the horse of last season. I'd be wanting to see serious improvement next time as he ran like a horse with issues.

[Liammet]

Interested in severano for this
always thought he would improve for going chasing and seems to be still improving
Anyone think he has a chance in this ?

[Birds Nest]

Interested in severano for this
always thought he would improve for going chasing and seems to be still improving
Anyone think he has a chance in this ?

Very impressive last time out but sherwood mentioned him stepping up in trip later in the season, would think rsa is on the agenda.

[Liammet]

Very impressive last time out but sherwood mentioned him stepping up in trip later in the season, would think rsa is on the agenda.

Thanks
suppose that also brings the ultima into the equation
think I will look for the TWAR option

[Birds Nest]

Thanks
suppose that also brings the ultima into the equation
think I will look for the TWAR option

Yes your right it does bring that into view too.. Looking more likely each day thats its going to be a festival handicaps novice year.. The absence of the novices chase is going shake things up this year, impacting not only on the fest but on saturday racing too.. Thanks for reminding me about severano, he'd slipped my net on handicaps.

[jonthehammer]

Betting as of 15-12-10 (Hills)


20/1
Clondaw Castle
Greaneteen
Spiritofthegames
Off You Go

25/1
Magic Saint
Midnight Shadow
Assemble
Siruh du Lac
Simply The Betts
Oldgrangewood
Mister Whitaker
Coole Cody
Espoir de Guye
Al Dancer
Happy Diva
Phoenix Way
Sevarano

33/1
Ofalltheginjoints
Vision des Flos
Brelan d'As
Aso
Saint Sonnet
Moonlighter
Crossed My Mind
Not That Fuisse
Benatar
Demachine

40/1
January Jets

50/1
Kauto Riko