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Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase - formerly the Browns Advisory
Amazed to have just found Top Moon at 40/1 NRNB for this.
He's had a low key start to life as a novice chaser but Joseph's form this season is well documented and this horse was always likely to be one for handicaps. Anyway he has built up plenty of experience in the process and finally sprung to life on Saturday when pushed along from a fair way out and stayed on really well all the way to the line for a close 2nd. All runs this season have come over 2 miles (give or take) but interestingly his 2 best performances last season were at the middle distance when 1st and 2nd in two decent handicaps. Even more interestingly the post race analysis suggested that he would likely benefit from going up even further in trip, making his performance on Saturday over 2m even more noteworthy.
RP analysis after win over 2m 4f at Cork, Nov 2019: "His best days are still in front of him and on this evidence he will certainly stay further"
JJ Slevin comments post race: "never travelled. I thought I was beaten turning in but he stuck at it well and won well in the end. He'll probably stay further and he's a nice horse"
RP analysis after 2nd at Navan over 2m 4f, Dec 2019: "lost his position at a crucial stage and was always on the back foot up the home straight. He looks like he will have no problem staying 3m on this evidence"
I think this leaves little doubt that his optimum trip is at least 2m 4f, which I would suggest makes this race the most likely destination, despite being priced at just 16s for the Grand Annual. The fact he went for the Coral Cup last year adds to this theory, although admittedly he was disappointing there.
His Irish mark (136) is 6lb below his hurdles rating but whether the UK handicapper will take a similar view is anyone's guess. He was 146 for the Coral Cup last year and will have been marked down for that effort. I'd expect the UK handicapper not to take too many chances in departing much from his hurdles mark. Something in the low-140s is probably realistic and that should get him in this race off a nice weight.
- Unexposed 6yo.
- Proven to handle a big field handicap.
- Improvement to come stepping up in trip.
- Green and Gold.
- 40/1.
- Money back if he doesn't run.
Another good call this.
Have been ignoring O'Brien horses but this would not go unbacked if it turned up.
As a backer of his in the Coral Cup I was really disappointed with his performance.
Was there any reason noted for his bounce back to form at the DRF or was it just a case of the handbrake being taken off by Frank/JP? Because prior to that run he's been beat a total of 188 lengths in 5 runs this season.
It may be he just liked the DRF as, despite finishing 13th of 22, he wasn't disgraced last season there before running a stinker at the festival.
Not sure COD re the bounce back to form, but it isn't unusual for horses who will ultimately be targeting handicaps to run round the back of a few beginners chases. It's all good experience and helps ensure they end up on a competitive mark. What I think is key is that he HAS bounced back to form. And he's a young horse who potentially has more to show.
His Coral Cup performance would be something for the negatives column. But at 40/1 that's factored into the price... for me.
Not sure COD re the bounce back to form, but it isn't unusual for horses who will ultimately be targeting handicaps to run round the back of a few beginners chases. It's all good experience and helps ensure they end up on a competitive mark. What I think is key is that he HAS bounced back to form. And he's a young horse who potentially has more to show.
His Coral Cup performance would be something for the negatives column. But at 40/1 that's factored into the price... for me.
...coincidentally, I went back to the October JoB stable tour yesterday (mainly to consider if Cerebus might be a plot), and read about Top Moon. Back then, JoB said he still wasn’t sure if it would be campaigned over hurdles or fences.
Top Moon with a nice run there over a shorter trip than ideal to hopefully get him in near the bottom of the weights. 40/1 with Paddy Power.
Fancied him for the Coral Cup last year but sacrificed to make the pace and he will improve for the step up over fences.
Good shout. Viking Flagship has also made a good case and he won't be 40/1 on the day if he runs here. Raised 5lb for this run to 136 and likely to get a couple more from English handicapper so he sneaks in at the bottom. Recent runnings have gone to novices. 40/1 NRNB well worth taking each way 5 places.
Oh excellent, so 4 lbs lower than when a 1 length 2nd to SImply The Betts last year. (Although R.PAtrick was claiming 3).... but still..... handicapped to give it a right good go again.
His Coral Cup performance would be something for the negatives column. But at 40/1 that's factored into the price... for me.
I'd ignore the Coral Cup run. He was never happy leading (hadn't done this previously) and I'd expect improvement this year as he was only a 5 year old last year. He's been put in 2m races this year when he is a 2 and a half mile plus horse.
Usually races behind the leaders which is always a positive in this race.
Only negative is that like last year, JP may decide another of his has a better chance and another of his is sacrificed to make the pace.
I’m extremely sweet on Tony Martin’s AT THE ACORN for this. He was sent off 9/2 fav for last years 2m5 Gaelic plant hire handicap at Leopardstown festival, only to be hampered badly twice including while traveling sweetly up to make a move.
In running comments -
‘Waited with towards rear, hampered 4th, headway going well 10th, close up disputing 8th when badly hampered at last (normal 2 out), soon ridden and some headway into straight, kept on one pace in 6th run-in (op 11/2)’
It was a performance that stuck with me and it’s also of interest that Tony has protected his Mark by running in fodder hurdle races until entering the same race at this years DRF - only to be ballotted out missing a run by one.
Now rated 130 he is entered up at Naas on Saturday in a (0-130) handicap chase which he will be looking to win to sneak into the bottom of this years Festival plate with some English tax. (Last years bottom weight 140).
There is no doubt this horse is well handicapped and primed for a big run - there’s also the possibility if things don’t go quite to plan this weekend that he could make the Kim Muir cut, but that can be considered post race.
25/1 nrnb Plate with PP, or 33/1 unibet without insurance.
I’m extremely sweet on Tony Martin’s AT THE ACORN for this. He was sent off 9/2 fav for last years 2m5 Gaelic plant hire handicap at Leopardstown festival, only to be hampered badly twice including while traveling sweetly up to make a move.
In running comments -
‘Waited with towards rear, hampered 4th, headway going well 10th, close up disputing 8th when badly hampered at last (normal 2 out), soon ridden and some headway into straight, kept on one pace in 6th run-in (op 11/2)’
It was a performance that stuck with me and it’s also of interest that Tony has protected his Mark by running in fodder hurdle races until entering the same race at this years DRF - only to be ballotted out missing a run by one.
Now rated 130 he is entered up at Naas on Saturday in a (0-130) handicap chase which he will be looking to win to sneak into the bottom of this years Festival plate with some English tax. (Last years bottom weight 140).
There is no doubt this horse is well handicapped and primed for a big run - there’s also the possibility if things don’t go quite to plan this weekend that he could make the Kim Muir cut, but that can be considered post race.
25/1 nrnb Plate with PP, or 33/1 unibet without insurance.
He’s also entered in a 3m hurdle on Sunday & when pulled up last time - was reported by the jockey to have made an abnormal respiratory noise. Do you know if it’s had a wind op?
He’s also entered in a 3m hurdle on Sunday & when pulled up last time - was reported by the jockey to have made an abnormal respiratory noise. Do you know if it’s had a wind op?
You’ve got me there Saxon.
Plenty of smokescreens as far as Tony Martin is concerned anyway, including the hurdles entry. He would have been spitting feathers that he missed the cut by one last weekend.
If the horse needed a breathing op to improve I’m sure Tony would have administered ready for the stewards room...
You’ve got me there Saxon.
Plenty of smokescreens as far as Tony Martin is concerned anyway, including the hurdles entry. He would have been spitting feathers that he missed the cut by one last weekend.
If the horse needed a breathing op to improve I’m sure Tony would have administered ready for the stewards room...
UK made the wind-ops compulsory notices on racecards 3 years ago.
I don't think anyone has thought about it in Ireland yet.
I don't recall ever seeing them mentioned in their racecards.
I'm waiting for Kevin Blake to ruffle feathers with their racing authorities about it in the near future. (after "about" race distances, and CCTV in stables)
Maybe will only know when the 5-day decs appear at Cheltenham with 30 Irish wind-ops in them.
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