Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase - formerly the Browns Advisory

[Saxon Warrior]

I've already backed Coko Beach for this race , but wondering as today's race was over 3m 1 f , would another race be more likely ??. - k.muir / n.h.chs ??.

Coko Beach is already entered in the RSA/Festival Chase, the National Hunt Chase, and the Marsh, so there’s a lot of possibility he could run in a Graded race.

Whether he runs in a Cheltenham handicap will depend firstly what the Irish rating changes to, next Tuesday.
Then what the UK handicapper does on March 4th if Coko Beach is entered in any Handicaps at the Festival.

The only ones available to him now are probably the Ultima and the Brown Plate, and I can see Gordon putting him in both to see what the UK handicapper gives him.

I have backed him for this NRNB at 33/1, and I would say it’s odds-on that the bookie gives me the money back and he doesn’t run here.

But antepost betting is all about hope.
and while there is hope of a 150-ish UK mark (or less) then we have a chance he could come here.

Top weight in the last 8 Brown Plates has been on average 156-157, so if Coko Beach got a UK mark of 150 then he could easily give the Ultima or Brown Plate a go, whilst not being that close to top-weight.

Last year Gordon had Death Duty off 151 in this race carrying 10st 13lb with a 7 allowance from a claimer.

[charlie]

wrong thread

[Muswell]

25s with PP for RWF

[archie]

The demise of the novice handicap (hooray) is likely to have an effect on the stats for this race. It was already a bargepole job until weight allocation but I'd suggest that it's even more so now.

[BigChaang]

Coko Beach is already entered in the RSA/Festival Chase, the National Hunt Chase, and the Marsh, so there’s a lot of possibility he could run in a Graded race.

Whether he runs in a Cheltenham handicap will depend firstly what the Irish rating changes to, next Tuesday.
Then what the UK handicapper does on March 4th if Coko Beach is entered in any Handicaps at the Festival.

The only ones available to him now are probably the Ultima and the Brown Plate, and I can see Gordon putting him in both to see what the UK handicapper gives him.

I have backed him for this NRNB at 33/1, and I would say it’s odds-on that the bookie gives me the money back and he doesn’t run here.

But antepost betting is all about hope.
and while there is hope of a 150-ish UK mark (or less) then we have a chance he could come here.

Top weight in the last 8 Brown Plates has been on average 156-157, so if Coko Beach got a UK mark of 150 then he could easily give the Ultima or Brown Plate a go, whilst not being that close to top-weight.

Last year Gordon had Death Duty off 151 in this race carrying 10st 13lb with a 7 allowance from a claimer.

Thankyou Saxon , Much appreciated .

[TigerRolllllll]

Benatar looks interesting for this.....33s NRNB and decent festival form

Risk is runs at weekend, but current mark well below best

[Istabraq]

Benatar looks interesting for this.....33s NRNB and decent festival form

I don’t know why but I always expected him to run in the Ultima, I saw him as a stayer 2+ years ago but he hasn’t been tested over 3m+.
142 gives him options for sure...

[Kevloaf]

I don’t know why but I always expected him to run in the Ultima, I saw him as a stayer 2+ years ago but he hasn’t been tested over 3m+.
142 gives him options for sure...

I remember Kevin Blake getting all giddy about him back down in trip.

I was inclined to agree, Moore seemed to try and make him a stayer but he's shown pace, pace, pace?


He's too keen for 3m?

[Outlaw]

I remember Kevin Blake getting all giddy about him back down in trip.

I was inclined to agree, Moore seemed to try and make him a stayer but he's shown pace, pace, pace?


He's too keen for 3m?

Was keen as Clap in the 2018 JLT, did very well to get 3rd that day considering, 3 years later he’s doing exactly the same albeit not had chance to race much. I’d find it hard to see him lasting 3M given what we’ve seen to date in an Ultima. Still potentially very interesting over intermediate trips thou.

[Kevloaf]

Was keen as Clap in the 2018 JLT, did very well to get 3rd that day considering, 3 years later he’s doing exactly the same albeit not had chance to race much. I’d find it hard to see him lasting 3M given what we’ve seen to date in an Ultima. Still potentially very interesting over intermediate trips thou.

I hink for me, trying to be as ruthless as I can (as a chap who has no issue backing plenty), he's had enough chances to win and has being trying often enough for me to think he's probably not "well handicapped" no matter what happens. He'd need things to go perfectly, and even then, Gordon will probably have one, too-good!

I can overlook him, fair enough if he wins and at the right price I might back him....but he'd surely be value on the day... not an ante post play we need to be getting in the book!



It's important to remember there is value on the day in handicaps... for us Cheltenham ante-post experts..... outside of Elliott, Mullins and anything that's "super-obvious", the ante post for handicaps isn't as important as other races?

[Outlaw]

It’s important to remember there is value on the day in handicaps... for us Cheltenham ante-post experts..... outside of Elliott, Mullins and anything that's "super-obvious", the ante post for handicaps isn't as important as other races?

Fair comments agree with what you say especially ^ paragraph,was just against him going up in trip at the fez.

Being 9, still headstrong and living off the JLT tie in a bit he’s not one I’m rushing in on either. I do feel he seems to get a bit of support regularly from the odd tipster/preview,so can see a few putting him up at 33s+ with two placed effort efforts at HQ,and showing well after his layoff for a long way lto.

This weekend muddies the water a tad(if on) win and it makes life much tougher obvs, lose and it’s another hcap chalked up and adds to the getting more exposed argument then.

[Kevloaf]

Just mulling over Happy Diva who admittidely may well be going for the Mares Chase this year (as it's the kind of horse the race is made for?)

....but...... she's got some really good big field form (16+ runners) of 1 2 F

All at Cheltenham too, the win doesn't need much explaining. Obviously a huge positive.

The 2 was in this race last year, off 149, which is the same mark as now. She has a penalty tomorrow, would we forgive another 'average' looking run, where she gets beat and perhaps drops 1-2 lbs. An extra 2 lbs off her back last year and she'd have come out ahead of Simply The Betts??


I can't quite justify this campaigning being a plan/plot .... and tomorrow she may well hack up or run really well and go for the Grade 2 Mares Chase instead....but......

I think even a 'poor' or 'average' run tomorrow, would have me look at her price, OR and position in the race last year and think.....


At 25/1 (5 places) and NRNB, I'm willing to back her to find out here....

[RufusFlynn]

Interesting Kev, I was also just thinking the same for Annie Mc

Form is perhaps not as strong but has ran some decent races over fences including a reasonable enough run in the Caspian Caviar. Connections obviously think highly of her... Chris Hughes has said the target isn’t decided yet

Cant actually see her priced up for this but could be a decent E/W shout NRNB

[Kevloaf]

Reverse forecast?

[Birds Nest]

Still hoping espoir de romay comes here, that 2nd behind royal pag looks excellant form considering he was giving RP 5lbs too. I know bailey is keen to get a 3rd run in for him as he was due out end of jan but had a slight trace so kept him back. 140 plus whatever he gets for the 3rd run would be very interesting.