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It's an obscure one, and way out of left field, but I'll be keeping at eye on Dream Conti for Noel Meade. I cannot for the life of me understand why Noel ran Dream Conti in a competitive looking Grade 2 vs the likes of Minella Indo 7 days after his first run in 400 days. To my mind, Noel either completely lost his shit, or he thought he came out of the race well enough to take his chance in that type of company vs 150+ rated animals. He made a mistake and the race clearly came too soon so 132 could be a competitive mark, might try and get him quoted and talk a small EW position.
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I see hes got an entry for the paddy power over xmas, not sure he'd get in that though, currently 45 on the list... Maybe meade's thinking kim muir rather than plate,.. But your right about it all being a little off... Certainly one to keep an eye on though..Originally posted by charlie View PostComment
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I like phoenix way for this of jps..i think hes a nice horse was pulled up in the henry viii novice chase..but thats most likely the strong pace that allmankind seems to go at, i also think hell be better at the intermediate trip soon as he was seen as a 3 mile hurdler..he also had nice form at 2m 4f beating third wind who was 4th in this years pertemps..im hoping and i think hell imrove in his next run..if anyone is a fan of paul ferguson jumpers to follow he has a nice mention aswellComment
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Vet report said Phoenix Way bled at Sandown so be carefulComment
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Ahead of PP going NRNB I've risked a point e/w on spiritofthegames at 20s, one who will surely set off a single digit price and with 5 places seems too good a value in my head for an ultra consistent horse.Comment
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Don’t do it!Originally posted by Native River View Post
he’s been 16/1 SP the last 2 years ask, me how I know! I can definitely see the appeal having backed him twice but I’d be surprised if he can now find enough improvement to win this. There are definitely worse bets and he’s consistent but I’d be surprised if he price was much if any lower on the day, maybe getting an extra place too.
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I don't know why I thought he set off low last year after looking at it. I would suspect there are less exposed types that will appear but surely he's due a big one soonOriginally posted by ToniC View Post
Don’t do it! he’s been 16/1 SP the last 2 years ask, me how I know! I can definitely see the appeal having backed him twice but I’d be surprised if he can now find enough improvement to win this. There are definitely worse bets and he’s consistent but I’d be surprised if he price was much if any lower on the day, maybe getting an extra place too.
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Just backed Chatham Street Lad for this race, 25/1 currently, which can be boosted.
I understand connections have entered him in pretty much everything, from the novice chase races to the Ryanair, to handicap options. He is now 9 years of age, I would rule out the Marsh Chase, as they'd only likely be chasing Envoi Allens back side anyway, and 2nd place prize money in that race is not worth it, who wants to be 2nd anyway? I'm also ruling out the Ryanair, although 9 year olds do win it, he'll have to improve an absolute bundle, which I just don't see happening.
His latest performance at Cheltenham was very reminiscent of Simply The Betts, before he turned up and won this race last season, so there may be a case of recency bias in my case, however the figures also support this, in fact, CSL was slightly ahead of STB's performance from January last year.
What makes me think he will end up down the handicap route is the plan they go for the 2m1f chase at Fairyhouse as his next target (which he's entered for). For a start in the interview where this plan is outlined, trainer Mick Winters also says “The big, galloping tracks suit him and if you had a choice of going left or right with him you’d go left.”, so for all that Fairyhouse is a galloping track, it is a right handed one, so this contradicts what he actually believes. Secondly I'm not convinced he'll benefit from dropping back down to 2m. His best performance by far was that one at Cheltenham over 2m4 1/2f. His best hurdles performances also came over this distance. Makes me believe they expect to just keep him ticking over, but not necessarily win, thus not hurting his mark at all.Comment
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CSL likely to be hit with OR of 157 next time he is entered in GBComment
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You think he'll get a 16lb rise from his Cheltenham run? The Irish have put him up 10lbs for that, so sits at 151.Originally posted by Pendil View Post
If CSL wasn't in the race then Midnight Shadow wins that by 12 lengths, and he'd have been given a 5-7lbs, IMO. Given it's an Irish horse I think they'll up that of course, but I think 10lbs is fair, and 151 I could quite see being manageable. If he takes up his engagement in about a weeks time, over a trip I think is too short anyway, he'll likely be beat too, so they may also take this into account.Comment
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Midnight Shadow got a 1lb hike for the second place.
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I think the entries for the Champion Chase and Ryanair show the intent of connections and as a 9 year old I think they might as well go for the Ryanair. It might be easier to win than the Marsh
I can't see him going down the handicap route CoD - surely they'll be aiming much higher than that.Comment
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This race will be very tough to find the unexposed ones this year seeing as it will be totally jam packed more than ever with the removal of the novice cap chase, might need to find some more solid more exposed ones each way like Midnight Shadow and the likes.Comment
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