Paddy Power Plate Handicap Chase - formerly the Browns Advisory

[jack1092]

Only 3 of the 11 horses priced under 20/1 have entries here, so there is definitely value to be had here! (A Wave Of The Sea, Conflated & Farclas)

I know the case for Midnight Shadow has been made long before now but he still looks a good punt at 20s based on that run behind Chatham Street Lad, and the hurdles run last weekend stinks of a run to protect the chase mark.

While i get the horse is interesting, i'd be concerned she's 0% run to form in 14days, and Sue Smith's best runner was 17ls beaten. Suggests to me things still ain't right in her yard. Maybe she'll bounce back in time for the festival!?

[Lobos]

https://twitter.com/ryanOTHx?ref_src...Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Have a check.
Don't think crossed my mind is, or capeland

Looks like you're going alphabetically so the lists will help you

Cheers Q !

[RufusFlynn]

I know GE has targeted a few at this, but from the last few years it is a race that the Brits have done fairly well in and dominated the places; horses who have run well in Cheltenham handicaps throughout the season seem do well in this race. Obviously this year, a few of the meetings were lost to the weather but I think the following are fo interest:

Coole Cody
Al Dancer
Aso

Spiritofthegames, Oldgrangewood and Happy Diva are all also fairly consistent handicappers and ran well last year.

As a wild card - if Samcro were to turn up here.... what price would he go off?!

[ComplyOrDie]

I know GE has targeted a few at this, but from the last few years it is a race that the Brits have done fairly well in and dominated the places; horses who have run well in Cheltenham handicaps throughout the season seem do well in this race. Obviously this year, a few of the meetings were lost to the weather but I think the following are fo interest:

Coole Cody
Al Dancer
Aso

Spiritofthegames, Oldgrangewood and Happy Diva are all also fairly consistent handicappers and ran well last year.

As a wild card - if Samcro were to turn up here.... what price would he go off?!

Don't get Quevega started on Al Dancer, although I do quite like him myself. Nigel Twiston-Davies only has a couple of other entries in the race, and they are a 10 year and an 11 year old, I could easily see Al Dancer being their main hope in the race, albeit they've never won it! They have had horses run well in the race in the past though.

[Spectre]

I know the quality is increasing but you usually want something below 150 which would rule all three of those out for win purposes. You could perhaps see Al Dancer 153 and Aso 158 running on into a place though. I'm not sure the latter will turn up though.

[Quevega]

Al Dancer has not been rated properly since he won the worst betfair hurdle in the history of the universe.

[ComplyOrDie]

Al Dancer has not been rated properly since he won the worst betfair hurdle in the history of the universe.

TBF you're probably bang on about that. I never liked him for the Supreme, I think he's a handicapper, which this race is, and although he is likely too high at the weights he could run a place. He's 28/1 but only 4 places. If there is 25's (maybe wishful thinking) for extra places come the day he'd be of further interest, the problem is the NRNB prices are very skinny on him.

[Mr X]

could anybody confirm if Benatar only entry is here in the plate?


Rated 138, but entered at Warwick on Friday.

Form in behind Chatam Street Lad makes him of interest.

Yes just entered in the plate at Cheltenham. Went through all the form for this horse and good to soft is the ideal ground and with a decent run on Friday on much better ground than when P.U. at Sandown last time in heavy (ran well before tiring and P.U.) is very much one to take note of off a 138 rating or less come Cheltenham on decent ground.

[Viking Flagship]

I know GE has targeted a few at this, but from the last few years it is a race that the Brits have done fairly well in and dominated the places; horses who have run well in Cheltenham handicaps throughout the season seem do well in this race. Obviously this year, a few of the meetings were lost to the weather but I think the following are fo interest:

Coole Cody
Al Dancer
Aso

Spiritofthegames, Oldgrangewood and Happy Diva are all also fairly consistent handicappers and ran well last year.

As a wild card - if Samcro were to turn up here.... what price would he go off?!

These mid-trip Cheltenham handicaps do seem to have a habit of throwing up some familiar faces - although you've managed to miss out the one from last year that I quite like for this in Mister Whitaker. Excellent course form with figures of 114P153 (most of these runs coming in big competitive handicaps) and is 2lbs lower when running a cracker in the race last year, beaten just 3L. He's only been since twice this season and warmed up for this with a nice little 'never dangerous' 8L defeat behind Two For Gold and Aso at Warwick, keeping on well from the last. He needs a stiffer test than what that race offered and managed to get himself dropped 2lb for it, to a mark just 1lb higher than his last winning mark. Former festival winner too. At 25s/33s I like him as an each way shot in what will be an open race.

[Spectre]

I've got him and Oldgrangewood backed each way for this for very similar reasons.

Happy Diva is also very interesting off her revised mark.

The course and distance has a habit of throwing up perennial placers.

[Istabraq]

The course and distance has a habit of throwing up perennial placers.

Bring back Buywise....

[Spectre]

Bring back Buywise....

How frustrating was that horse!

[Viking Flagship]

I've got him and Oldgrangewood backed each way for this for very similar reasons.

Happy Diva is also very interesting off her revised mark.

The course and distance has a habit of throwing up perennial placers.

I've been very close to adding the 2 of them myself. I was on Oldgrangewood last year and would kick myself if he pulled it off this year. Amazingly consistent horse.

[Spectre]

To be fair I think the Farclas, Conflated and Defi Bleu for Gigi are the big guns, and I presume they'll send two of them here. But there's palces up for grabs and the UK horses do well in the race.

[Grand Canyon]

Yes just entered in the plate at Cheltenham. Went through all the form for this horse and good to soft is the ideal ground and with a decent run on Friday on much better ground than when P.U. at Sandown last time in heavy (ran well before tiring and P.U.) is very much one to take note of off a 138 rating or less come Cheltenham on decent ground.

Thanks Mr X for confirming.

I'll hold fire for now and see does he turn up at Warwick.

I reckon he might need to go up a pound or two to get a run here.