MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle 2021

[ToniC]

A Boat is perfect for this race. Just need to look at all previous winners.
Even last years winner has proven to be slower than slow.

Yeah point taken, I’d already backed him since before he won the last day as he appealed on the stats & was running in the right race. This yoke looks such a boat santini would be a jet ski next to him though

[FinalFurlong91]

20/1 seems fair, may as well throw a small bet at him

[taylorch1990]

I've ended up siding with Does He Know for this. Needs to be forgiven his last 2 runs but the Run Out seemed a one off and he didn't stay 2 mile 7 in heavy ground imo. Before then he had won twice over 2 mile 5 at Cheltenham on Good to soft ground including a grade 2.

[DenmanSacre]

I've ended up siding with Does He Know for this. Needs to be forgiven his last 2 runs but the Run Out seemed a one off and he didn't stay 2 mile 7 in heavy ground imo. Before then he had won twice over 2 mile 5 at Cheltenham on Good to soft ground including a grade 2.

I like him for this if lining up. Still in the Ballymore and Coral Cup, but unlikely to line up in the Coral. I think he will be 16s or higher on the day with more places so waiting for that and for them to confirm the race.

[taylorch1990]

I like him for this if lining up. Still in the Ballymore and Coral Cup, but unlikely to line up in the Coral. I think he will be 16s or higher on the day with more places so waiting for that and for them to confirm the race.

I tend to agree didn't want to risk the 25s with Hills. 365 are bog at least and I do think he'll shorten a bit if declared. I'll probably go in again if he is declared too.

[Saxon Warrior]

There’s been mixed messages about MAZE RUNNER’s participation at Cheltenham, this week, with Willie picking him as his best handicap chance, and Ruby not being certain he will turn up.

Looking through for alternatives for him in the Irish racing calendar for handicap hurdles at mid-trips or over 3M there’s nothing with a total prize fund of of above €40,000 until a mid-trip race worth €85,000 at Punchestown on 1st May.

Given he ran away with the €100,000 3M Handicap Hurdle at the DRF over a month ago, it would seem odd (if the horse is fit and well) not to come over for one of his two Cheltenham entries (Coral Cup and Martin Pipe), as he has had only two runs over hurdles this season, and missed last season completely.

If he does come, I like the profile of a run in the Martin Pipe.

On the face of it, he won that DRF Graded Handicap Hurdle off 125, and it looks like he has a lot to prove off a much higher mark.

He has been raised 10lb in Ireland to 135, and the UK capper gave him 5lb more, to a new 140 mark.

However, If we compare his place in the Martin Pipe and his performance in the 3M DRF handicap with Gordon Elliott’s two Martin Pipe plots that came through that race in the last two years, then his chances look a lot lot brighter.

DALLAS DES PICTONS ran 2 years ago in the 3M handicap hurdle at the DRF off 130, won by a neck and with a race RPR of 142.
He went to the Martin Pipe as the 7/2JF off a UK mark of 140.

COLUMN OF FIRE ran last year in the 3M handicap hurdle at the DRF off 132, finishing 1&3/4 lengths 3rd, with a race RPR of 146.
He went to the Martin Pipe as a 13/2 shot, off a UK mark of 143.

MAZE RUNNER won the 3M handicap hurdle at the DRF off 125, by 4&1/2 lengths with a race RPR of 144.
His mark in the Martin Pipe is 140, and his price is 20/1 NRNB.

In a normal year, if he wore the Gigginstown silks and Gordon Elliott trained him for this race, he would be a lot shorter, with the same race profile as his two previous years runners that both went oh so close to winning the race.

To put it in perspective he has the same UK mark as Dallas Des Pictons had in the Martin Pipe and has put up a 2lb higher RPR in the 3M DRF Hcap than DDP.

He has a 3lb lower UK mark in the Martin Pipe than Column Of Fire had, and put up an RPR when winning the same Hcap Hurdle at the DRF with a 2lb lower RPR.

That makes him a 1lb better proposition than COF, and a 2lb better proposition than DDP, based on those numbers and ratings.

Fingers well and truly crossed that he comes over and runs in this race, given the linked history in recent years between the 3M DRF Handicap Hurdle and the Martin Pipe.

If there is confirmation of a run then I will be backing him again NRNB and adding him into some doubles/multis too.

Only Monte Cristo (by 1lb) has a higher adjusted RPR for the Martin Pipe in the top 30in the betting market than Maze Runner, which would prove that he maybe isn’t handicapped out of the race by his big weight rise.

[punterorplonker]

Like the write up saxon. Was it only Ruby that thought he wouldn't come here. ? He sounded quite confident on paddy show. There was alot of money again for it just before he said it lol. Doh

[Saxon Warrior]

Like the write up saxon. Was it only Ruby that thought he wouldn't come here. ? He sounded quite confident on paddy show. There was alot of money again for it just before he said it lol. Doh

As I looked through this particular Gordon Elliott route to the Pipe, via the 3M DRF hcap, again, it was evident to me that MAZE RUNNER is being overlooked in the market, in favour of 'sexier' Willie Mullins Novices.

Maze Runner in that one run, and even with his new higher rating, joined Dallas Des Pictons and Column Of Fire as a horse with an equal chance to the ones that they had but at a much bigger price.

He jumped out to me on entries day and I backed him immediately given that despite his lack of racing, and the major improvement he found to thrash a big handicap field at the DRF.

I

[Birds Nest]

Not sure if hes been mentioned somewhere but i've marked Grumpy charlie for this race. Trainers confirmed the target and also said he'll improve going up in distance. His bit of form that marked him for me was last time out beating Eamon An Cnoic.
Eac was having a quick reappearance before being put up after exploiting his low handicap hurdle mark previously, in essence he was 13lbs well in when getting beat by Grumpy C. Both came well clear and i know grumpy got a 143 mark afterwards but it still was a striking performance beating such a well handicapped horse over an inadequate distance.

[Kevloaf]

Not sure if hes been mentioned somewhere but i've marked Grumpy charlie for this race. Trainers confirmed the target and also said he'll improve going up in distance. His bit of form that marked him for me was last time out beating Eamon An Cnoic.
Eac was having a quick reappearance before being put up after exploiting his low handicap hurdle mark previously, in essence he was 13lbs well in when getting beat by Grumpy C. Both came well clear and i know grumpy got a 143 mark afterwards but it still was a striking performance beating such a well handicapped horse over an inadequate distance.

I think I saw they were leaning towards the Supreme as they didn't feel he was well handicapped off that mark.

[Quevega]

With Maze Runner not entered for the Coral cup, it doesn't bode well for the Pipe entry now.
I've also heard and just read again that Mcnamara is set to ride Gabynako.

I'd also say that with both Column of Fire and Wide Receiver not being entered in the coral cup that they look unlikely now also. Tough call for anyone on antepost I reckon.
Shame Elliot's in hiding as we may well have been given much more of a nod from this yard by now.

The only thing that may mean they get an entry in the Pipe is that they have secured a conditional already so no need to keep them in the Coral - But I'd say this is unlikely.

[Kevloaf]

To be fair, NRNB has been widely available since Mullins mentioned Maze Runner and since Column Of Fire got his rating, so hopefully nobody too badly stung.

[chunker86]

Kevin Blake on Twitter says Front View won't run.

[Istabraq]

There’s only a couple of small orders Column of Fire on the lay side left but if he wasn’t coming someone who knows would surely have taken these ?
#liveinhope

[ToniC]

With Maze Runner not entered for the Coral cup, it doesn't bode well for the Pipe entry now.
I've also heard and just read again that Mcnamara is set to ride Gabynako.

I'd also say that with both Column of Fire and Wide Receiver not being entered in the coral cup that they look unlikely now also. Tough call for anyone on antepost I reckon.
Shame Elliot's in hiding as we may well have been given much more of a nod from this yard by now.

The only thing that may mean they get an entry in the Pipe is that they have secured a conditional already so no need to keep them in the Coral - But I'd say this is unlikely.

Can cash WR for a bit of profit & I’m not on NRNB. Decisions...