MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle 2021

[Pendil]

For Cheltenham it’s all about the UK ‘capper though, he probably would have been left embarrassed last year had COF stood up and, for me, there’s no way he will take a sympathetic view of any poor run(s) between now and March.
What would help him is a sterner approach by Irish stewards but that won’t happen any time soon...

him
I think I was saying the same in if "he ran a poor race first time out (FTO) in Ireland they wouldnt drop him" meaning of course the UK handicapper. If connections are aiming for Cheltenham with COF, I would expect only one run before March.
Sorry that you dont have faith in the integrity of Irish racing, but expect you forgot the IMO

[Istabraq]

him
I think I was saying the same in if "he ran a poor race first time out (FTO) in Ireland they wouldnt drop him" meaning of course the UK handicapper. If connections are aiming for Cheltenham with COF, I would expect only one run before March.
Sorry that you dont have faith in the integrity of Irish racing, but expect you forgot the IMO

It’s not that I don’t have any integrity in Irish racing, I’ve always struggled with the concept of handicap racing, in both Ireland and UK (I don’t follow any international racing so can’t comment on other countries).
The past few years have taught us that Irish trainers in particular have become exceptional at hiding a horses true ability making the handicappers job extremely difficult, UK trainers are no doubt trying to do the same but are either not as good at it or, as you alluded to a few days ago (I think it was you) the UK handicap system is overly harsh, but I’ve seen enough races over the years (Ireland and UK) where jockeys have taken country routes, targeted the worst of the ground, taken positions behind slowing horses and a host of other tactics to ensure their horse isn’t seen to the best of their abilities which of course goes against the rules of racing.
I assure you it is not an anti-Irish thing...

[archie]

The UK handicapper says he keeps his own ratings so what his Irish counterpart does is meaningless in terms of Cheltenham.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

The UK handicapper says he keeps his own ratings so what his Irish counterpart does is meaningless in terms of Cheltenham.

Is the second part of your comment your inference? Is another maybe slightly more balanced take that the UK handicapper keeps their own ratings which they judge alongside the ratings given in Ireland? I struggle to believe looking at their Irish counterparts assessment is not part of the whole process they go through when giving their official final rating.

[Istabraq]

The UK handicapper says he keeps his own ratings so what his Irish counterpart does is meaningless in terms of Cheltenham.

Archie, are you aware of any instance where the UK handicapper has given an Irish horse a rating significantly lower than his Irish counterpart ?
We've all seen certain horses getting (what appears to be) wild hikes but I just wondered whether the UK 'capper had ever taken a view in the opposite direction...

[archie]

Is the second part of your comment your inference? Is another maybe slightly more balanced take that the UK handicapper keeps their own ratings which they judge alongside the ratings given in Ireland? I struggle to believe looking at their Irish counterparts assessment is not part of the whole process they go through when giving their official final rating.

I imagine he takes several factors in to account but the difference in the tax for each horse is evidence that he only takes the Irish rating as a minor piece of evidence. Whenever he's asked about this, he just says he keeps his own ratings, full stop.

[archie]

Archie, are you aware of any instance where the UK handicapper has given an Irish horse a rating significantly lower than his Irish counterpart ?
We've all seen certain horses getting (what appears to be) wild hikes but I just wondered whether the UK 'capper had ever taken a view in the opposite direction...

I remember a case a few years ago where he suspected a plot for the Kim Muir (?) and rated the horse low enough to ensure that it wouldn't get in. I think it was Patricks Park.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

I imagine he takes several factors in to account but the difference in the tax for each horse is evidence that he only takes the Irish rating as a minor piece of evidence. Whenever he's asked about this, he just says he keeps his own ratings, full stop.

Fair enough, I see what you are saying

[Istabraq]

I remember a case a few years ago where he suspected a plot for the Kim Muir (?) and rated the horse low enough to ensure that it wouldn't get in. I think it was Patricks Park.

Wow, I wasn't aware of that...

[archie]

If it was Patricks Park, the sequence of events was:
- joined Willie about Christmas 2017 possibly with Patrick as part of the group.
- on 1/1/2018 finished 6th in a handicap hurdle off 104 with Patrick on board (11/8 favourite).
- on 3/2/2018 won a 40k handicap chase off 123. I can find no reference but I think that the Kim Muir with Patrick aboard was mentioned then.
- raised to 133 in Ireland. From memory, little or no raise in the UK.
- bottom weight in the Kim Muir ran off 126.
- runs in novice handicap at Fairyhouse off 133. Finishes 5th at 2/1F
- runs in valuable Punchestown handicap off 133. Wins at 11/2.
- second in Galway Plate off 141.

Edit: Bonjers has come up with The Crafty Butcher which is almost certainly the correct example. I'll leave the Patricks Park details up just to show how difficult it can be for the handicappers.

If we can spot it on here, it's almost certain that the official handicapper will spot it as well.

[Bonjers]

I remember a case a few years ago where he suspected a plot for the Kim Muir (?) and rated the horse low enough to ensure that it wouldn't get in. I think it was Patricks Park.

The Crafty Butcher?. Finished second in the Paddy Power and I seem to recall he was dropped a couple of pounds off the back of it...

[Kevloaf]

Phil Smith was pretty vocal about the ratings they kept seperate, but it involved having to watch "Ask The Handicapper"

It's not Phil Smith anymore though is it.... how that's changed the dynamic, if at all, who knows...

[archie]

The Crafty Butcher?. Finished second in the Paddy Power and I seem to recall he was dropped a couple of pounds off the back of it...

Think you're correct, Bonjers. Thanks.

[Saxon Warrior]

The UK Novice Chase Handicap system is built around hurdle ratings, to begin with, if you enter a Novice Handicap Chase you can run off your Hurdles rating, until they have enough info to rate the horse as a chaser.

Ireland are different, when you start chasing, your hurdle rating doesn’t seem to form a significant part of the Chase handicapping process.

Thats why Chosen Mate was going to struggle last year to get into the Cheltenham Novice Handicap Chase, as his previous seasons Irish hurdle rating was 142 (probably more if he had ran in UK). (He had a UK Novice Hurdle mark of 148 at Aintree at one point)

Run Wild Fred’s Official Hurdle mark finished at 144 last March after winning a Grade 3 Hurdle.

The UK handicapper would be interested in the hurdles marks of Irish Novice Chasers coming to run in UK handicap chases, as well as examining their Chase runs, particularly if an Irish Novice Chaser was currently lower-rated chasing in Ireland, than last years Novice Hurdles mark.

[TigerRolllllll]

Not sure if this has been put up....

Fantasio D’alene apparently gone down same route as Dallas Des Pictons and CoF for this....still 20-25s

Looks interesting