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Whatever mark he gets, probably wouldn't be enough to get in.
So he def needs another run
It would need to be either a convincing win in a "nothing" race, or a good run in a decent race at the DRF.
It's not all over yet BUT, I'm less confident than I was
Not possible he's gone 4f further than optimum too?
He's still finished second, beaten everything else despite being knackered?
Ground and trip? I'm not crying...
Last 4 Gordon Elliott main hopefuls for this race have either won or just been beat over 3m prior to coming over.
Column Of Fire 3rd of 28 beaten 1 3/4 lengths in a 3m valuable handicap at the DRF
Dallas Des Pictons 1st of 12 in a valuable 3m handicap at the DRF
Blow By Blow 1st of 5 over 2m 7f
Champagne Classic 2nd of 11 over 3m 1/2f
Fantasio D'Alene 2nd of 7 beaten 52 lengths.
We talk about patterns of trainers, I just find it highly unlikely Fantasio D'Alene is now 'the one'.
Best bet for me now will be to see which ones he enters in the William Fry handicap at the DRF, where both Column Of Fire & Dallas Des Pictons ran good races.
Whatever mark he gets, probably wouldn't be enough to get in.
So he def needs another run
It would need to be either a convincing win in a "nothing" race, or a good run in a decent race at the DRF.
It's not all over yet BUT, I'm less confident than I was
Given he split Stattler and Vanillier, I'd be surprised if he doesn't get in myself.
Surprised if they didn't factor that in and also, it's just quite clear he didn't stay well today.
I don't see why at 4f shorter, he wouldn't still be of interest.
Perhaps the Column of Fire tip last year has set the bar too high....
Let's see where he goes next time, and how he runs, before we get too upset. I wouldn't (and won't) cash out for now that's fo' sho.
Last 4 Gordon Elliott main hopefuls for this race have either won or just been beat over 3m prior to coming over.
Column Of Fire 3rd of 28 beaten 1 3/4 lengths in a 3m valuable handicap at the DRF
Dallas Des Pictons 1st of 12 in a valuable 3m handicap at the DRF
Blow By Blow 1st of 5 over 2m 7f
Champagne Classic 2nd of 11 over 3m 1/2f
Fantasio D'Alene 2nd of 7 beaten 52 lengths.
We talk about patterns of trainers, I just find it highly unlikely Fantasio D'Alene is now 'the one'.
Best bet for me now will be to see which ones he enters in the William Fry handicap at the DRF, where both Column Of Fire & Dallas Des Pictons ran good races.
That said, this is Gordon, so who bloody knows!!
The issue is if there is something amiss.
That clearly wasn't him at his best or anywhere near it.
He'll probably run in Dublin, unless he's not very well.
Fitness also possibly an issue today. One run back in November where he split Stattler and Vanillier, so Gordon may have been concerned about the mark he'll get. This way he's likely to get something more to his liking and he can slip another run in if he needs to.
Perhaps he'll be sent up the hill at Culentra a few times before his next race!
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
25/1 NRNB wasn't he..... not sure why everyones so upset haha
If he ran like that, then had his run with Stattler, people would be foaming.
Over reaction in my opinion. Saying he has 'no chance' when there have already been 3 reasons offered up as to why he could improve on today?
I'm not saying it was great, but it's not a write off.
Im not talking about his 25/1 NRNB price though Kev. He was 30/100 today. And beaten 52l by a 120 horse! I think its pretty hard to find any positives from that. He wasnt even travelling well and then went out like a light. He was struggling a long way from home. And his hurdling was very poor.
The only crumbs to cling on to are some of Gordons have underperformed the past few weeks... And he maybe hated the ground.
Obviously any horse can be forgiven one bad run, but we can't try and put positives on that today. The only positive is that you can try and put a line through it.
Im not talking about his 25/1 NRNB price though Kev. He was 30/100 today. And beaten 52l by a 120 horse! I think its pretty hard to find any positives from that. He wasnt even travelling well and then went out like a light. He was struggling a long way from home. And his hurdling was very poor.
The only crumbs to cling on to are some of Gordons have underperformed the past few weeks... And he maybe hated the ground.
Obviously any horse can be forgiven one bad run, but we can't try and put positives on that today. The only positive is that you can try and put a line through it.
Fair enough.
I very much was talking about him as an ante post prospect though, as that's what thread we're in
I don't personally think that winner today is actually a 120 rated horse, time should prove that was a very low mark for him?
To be fair, it's easy to put a line through the race isn't it.... clearly didn't stay. If the Martin Pipe was over 3m, I'd say the bet is dead...but it's not.
On balance of his form, for me, I wouldn't give up on him... you clearly have, and fair enough - nobody is claiming to have nailed the winner of the Martin Pipe this early.... unless you're me, 12 months ago - and we all know how that went.
I don't personally think that winner today is actually a 120 rated horse, time should prove that was a very low mark for him?
It's easy to forget this when you're focusing on another horse. Ted's horse was stepped up from 2 miles to 3 and probably improved two stones for it, which exaggerates the feeling about Fantasio, who probably didn't want heavy ground over a trip too far.
It'll be really interesting to see how Pure Genius is campaigned now given connections, as I suspect he's going to be in a very handy mark in the low 130's. Could he turn up in the last Irish qualifier for example?
Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more I sweat, the luckier I get.
It's easy to forget this when you're focusing on another horse. Ted's horse was stepped up from 2 miles to 3 and probably improved two stones for it, which exaggerates the feeling about Fantasio, who probably didn't want heavy ground over a trip too far.
It'll be really interesting to see how Pure Genius is campaigned now given connections, as I suspect he's going to be in a very handy mark in the low 130's. Could he turn up in the last Irish qualifier for example?
Ted mentioned him as a possible for the Four Miler next year in his RTV interview
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- and we all know how that went. 
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