MARTIN PIPE Conditionals Handicap Hurdle 2021

[nortonscoin200]

Easy As That got off the mark heavily eased down at Chepstow today - could he end up here if he gets a high enough mark.

He's got quite an engine but still can't jump.

[dannycraigpirates]

His jumping was so so bad...but he really did pull clear quite easily.

I can’t see him given anything over 130’ tbh

[nortonscoin200]

His jumping was so so bad...but he really did pull clear quite easily.

I can’t see him given anything over 130’ tbh

Yeah bottom weight in the Pipe the last 5 years (latest first): 136,126,136, 135,135.

Probably need to squeeze in another run before March if they want to go for it.

[Nortons who]

...Hills have added a couple of DRF/M Pipe specials:

Pure Genius @ 80-1
Julie’s Stowaway @ 150-1

Please can someone explain the attraction of To Win Today / Chelt specials, where both relate to handicaps?

Surely the likelihood is that if the selection wins a handicap at the DRF, their mark is going to increase to the extent that they then won't be competitive at Cheltenham. Realise there are exceptions but is this not generally the case. A place / win special might be more attractive with handicaps in mind.

[Quevega]

Please can someone explain the attraction of To Win Today / Chelt specials, where both relate to handicaps?

Surely the likelihood is that if the selection wins a handicap at the DRF, their mark is going to increase to the extent that they then won't be competitive at Cheltenham. Realise there are exceptions but is this not generally the case. A place / win special might be more attractive with handicaps in mind.

Depends what mark they are starting from.
The 2 valuable hurdle handicaps have thrown up winners that have gone on to Cheltenham as warm orders.
Even when they were not part of the Dublin festival.
They don't all do the double though.
Think Final Approach did it one year, in the county though.

Obviously, JP in particular often has horses who climb the handicap steeply in the Spring.
From low to mid 120's up to the mid 140's in a couple of runs.

edit - I'd want bigger prices than those though, although if Pure Genius wins Sunday I'd be surprised if he's not 6 or 7 to 1 for the Pipe.

[Eggs]

Please can someone explain the attraction of To Win Today / Chelt specials, where both relate to handicaps?

Surely the likelihood is that if the selection wins a handicap at the DRF, their mark is going to increase to the extent that they then won't be competitive at Cheltenham. Realise there are exceptions but is this not generally the case. A place / win special might be more attractive with handicaps in mind.

....agree, unless they need their mark to increase. I presume somebody requested these offers.

[Saxon Warrior]

Depends what mark they are starting from.
The 2 valuable hurdle handicaps have thrown up winners that have gone on to Cheltenham as warm orders.
Even when they were not part of the Dublin festival.
They don't all do the double though.
Think Final Approach did it one year, in the county though.

Obviously, JP in particular often has horses who climb the handicap steeply in the Spring.
From low to mid 120's up to the mid 140's in a couple of runs.

edit - I'd want bigger prices than those though, although if Pure Genius wins Sunday I'd be surprised if he's not 6 or 7 to 1 for the Pipe.

After he beat Fantasio D'Alene (when FD had bled) Ted Walsh was chattering on afterwards that he always thought PURE GENIUS and that it was the first time he'd got a performance out of him.

He seemed to dismiss travelling to Cheltenham this year and mentioned that he was a stayer and the National Hunt Chase 2022 was in his thinking for the future.

Maybe if he won tomorrow then he might change his mind for a handicap.

I got him added for NHC 2022 by Unibet and WH and they're both 66/1.

Probably worth a long-range bet on that if he were to scoot in tomorrow (maybe it's a market they won't immediately pull the price for).

[Nortons who]

Thanks Quevega, Eggs and Saxon Warrior for responding to my querey above, also for the useful steer on Pure Genius.

[Kevloaf]

Please can someone explain the attraction of To Win Today / Chelt specials, where both relate to handicaps?

Surely the likelihood is that if the selection wins a handicap at the DRF, their mark is going to increase to the extent that they then won't be competitive at Cheltenham. Realise there are exceptions but is this not generally the case. A place / win special might be more attractive with handicaps in mind.

I agree with this quite strongly, especially as you've acknowledged the caveat that there are some exceptions. In general though, winning a handicap decreases your chances of winning a handicap at Cheltenham, that's just obvious and I'm surprised it's not better understood IMO!


There are some horses who you can sense will be WELL AHEAD of their mark, and be able to rattle off a sequence, but they're not the norm.

[Eggs]

....Frontal Assault 1st 7 tomorrow & win M Pipe 50-1 Sky.

[Quevega]

After he beat Fantasio D'Alene (when FD had bled) Ted Walsh was chattering on afterwards that he always thought PURE GENIUS and that it was the first time he'd got a performance out of him.

He seemed to dismiss travelling to Cheltenham this year and mentioned that he was a stayer and the National Hunt Chase 2022 was in his thinking for the future.

Maybe if he won tomorrow then he might change his mind for a handicap.

I got him added for NHC 2022 by Unibet and WH and they're both 66/1.

Probably worth a long-range bet on that if he were to scoot in tomorrow (maybe it's a market they won't immediately pull the price for).

Yep,
I think if Ted has one that could be competitive at Cheltenham in normal non covid times then he'd be well up for it.
The fact he has the NH chase in mind is a clue that his current hurdles rating is possibly decent, over a trip.
And with a conditional on him tomorrow, a win for both jockey and horse would mean the Pipe would have to be discussed.

[Birds Nest]

I agree with this quite strongly, especially as you've acknowledged the caveat that there are some exceptions. In general though, winning a handicap decreases your chances of winning a handicap at Cheltenham, that's just obvious and I'm surprised it's not better understood IMO!


There are some horses who you can sense will be WELL AHEAD of their mark, and be able to rattle off a sequence, but they're not the norm.

I think its a great betting angle this time of the year when its at the stage of last run before the festival, only back the specials where a horse needs the rise, other graded of course. Pure genius would need to win today to get to the fest but, imo, with benatar (142) it would be detrimental and with damalisque 135 its borderline and so on..

[Winging The Last]

Wide Receiver out to 11/1 with Bet 365 in this now 7/1 nearly everywhere else. That's way too much of an over reaction when he won't have been trying

[Kautostar]

Wide Receiver out to 11/1 with Bet 365 in this now 7/1 nearly everywhere else. That's way too much of an over reaction when he won't have been trying

Might not get in after that effort

[Kevloaf]

Might not get in after that effort

You'd get your money back if that was the case though, as long as he's entered....