COUNTY Handicap Hurdle 2021

[Quevega]

Blue Lord's price is a fucking joke.
He's not definitely well in off his Irish mark and we've yet to see his UK mark.
It mat depend on how ahead the UK handicapper thinks the Irish form is - Metier is 149, and Appreciate it 153 Irish.
I tend to think he will add a couple more to the Irish, as per usual.
And it's the county hurdle.
Be extremely unlikely the favourite for that goes off shorter than 5-1 - IMO.
Unless there is something else lurking.

The bookies know what they're doing with a lot of these fancy types, at this stage of the season.
Many of the ones that look short now will be available at bigger on the day.
I'd say Blue Lord is one of them, and doubt he'll run here anyhow.

[germanshepherd]

If Mullins is concerned about Blue Lord's jumping for the County he'd be equally concerned about Ganapathi. He jumps slow and awkward. He did say he didn't know what to do when he got to the front in the Moscow Flyer. He didn't stay 2m6 but was going well enough 2f out. I think the Pipe is more likely than the County.

[Quevega]

You can get reasonable sums on betfair at 16 and 14's for blue lord

[RufusFlynn]

I actually think Heaven Help Us could be of interest here. Small yard so likely to be overlooked and likely to be a big price on the day.

7th in last years Supreme, has won at the course before in October 19. Has been chasing but returned to hurdles with a win at DRF. Several of those she beat are shorter than her in the relative markets.

Same owners as Buildmeupbuttercup, who placed in the race last year. Strong pace should suit. Also entered in the Coral Cup but despite running over further over fences has stuck to 2m over hurdles.

Will likely wait until the day and extra places but think there are worse EW shouts...

[jonthehammer]

I actually think Heaven Help Us could be of interest here. Small yard so likely to be overlooked and likely to be a big price on the day.

7th in last years Supreme, has won at the course before in October 19. Has been chasing but returned to hurdles with a win at DRF. Several of those she beat are shorter than her in the relative markets.

Same owners as Buildmeupbuttercup, who placed in the race last year. Strong pace should suit. Also entered in the Coral Cup but despite running over further over fences has stuck to 2m over hurdles.

Will likely wait until the day and extra places but think there are worse EW shouts...

With you on that one and she is on my list i have earmarked. Her mark is still pretty fair and she idled a bit last time in front when well clear. Just checked 33/1 nrnb 5 places is a cracking price with PP.

[Quevega]

The shunter off a mark of 134 is a very solid option for this. Unless he runs at Kelso next week in the morebattle.
anyone thinking of betting in the county should check those entries

[Spectre]

The shunter off a mark of 134 is a very solid option for this. Unless he runs at Kelso next week in the morebattle.
anyone thinking of betting in the county should check those entries

I agree. He was the first one I backed for this. He's well handicapped wherever he goes. We just need someone to tell us where that is.

[FinalFurlong91]

I hope he runs in one of the 2m4f races, looked to be crying out for a step up in trip

may need some tax from the handicapper to get in

[jack1092]

I hope he runs in one of the 2m4f races, looked to be crying out for a step up in trip

may need some tax from the handicapper to get in

Wasn't it suggested by Davy Russell that the jockey lost his irons quite far out in the Matheson? Would explain him losing positioning etc.

over 2m at Chelt i'd say he's just fine.

[jonthehammer]

The shunter off a mark of 134 is a very solid option for this. Unless he runs at Kelso next week in the morebattle.
anyone thinking of betting in the county should check those entries

Trying to work out where he goes is a nightmare, i think hes got 5 entries.

[germanshepherd]

Power post race said he's a 2m4 horse and they were thankful for the rain that day. Outpaced down the hill stayed on strong.

[Saxon Warrior]

After the euphoria of the 9 handicap races entries coming out midweek I have been walking through each race one-by-one, to see if there is anything I can spot to back (NRNB) before the weights come out.

I hadn’t had a good go at the County, so I’ve spent far to long this evening, into the early morning sifting through the field for anything that may stand out, above the others,.

The one I have landed on in this race is

CAYD BOY 25/1 (NRNB)
6yo 1/122-12
J P McManus
Elizabeth Doyle

Not a trainer that travels many over to Cheltenham, she has three horses entered for this years Festival, but has only had two runners (the same horse ran reasonable races in the Novice Hcap Chase and the Plate) in the last 5 years at the showpiece Festival

This horse could end up being Mark Walsh’s ride as the number one jockey for J P McManus.
The owner has little of interest running for him from Britain, but does have a good few from Ireland.

Cayd Boy has ran in two Graded 2M Handicap Hurdles this year, and looks like he may have been put away since November for the spring races.

He is a horse that is ridden for speed from the rear, and learned the hard way on his final start of three novice hurdle runs last season, when cruising all over the field, joining Floueur a little too early in the straight, looking all over the winner when jumping the last, but being ground down in the last fifty yards, when collared late on by Floueur.

This season he started straight into a Grade B Handicap Hurdle at the "Gordon Elliott Benefit" - Down Royal meeting and was Mark Walsh’s choice of four (including Drop The Anchor).

He was ridden out wide, got a good look at all of the hurdles, and jumped like a cat all the way.

He took it up at the last, cleared away by a couple of lengths with a turn of speed, and was closed down a little, late on, when he had the race was won.
The horse seemed to have Drop The Anchor well covered, when that horse was BD after 2 out, and gave him 10lbs (5lbs plus Simon Torrens claimed 5 more off him).

The following month in another Grade B 2M Handicap Hurdle (raised 9lb to 143), Mark Walsh chose him again, from 5 JP entries, including Ciel de Neige, and Drop The Anchor (JPs two shortest priced County entries).

This time the jockey took a position near the rear of the field, but crucially on the inside covered up, not the outer.

He jumped okay, but without the room to see the hurdles, he lacked the same fluency as his last race over the flights.

However, from an uninspiring position, he managed to forge a path through on the inside, after Advanced Virgo had nicked a lead from a favourable clear run on the outside of the field.

Cayd Boy threw down a challenge late on, again with a turn of speed that looked like he could catch the leader, only to come up short, settling with a fine runner-up placing.

Drop The Anchor was a close up in 3rd receiving 19lbs - a stone plus Simon Torrens 5lb claim, as Cayd Boy shouldered top weight of 11st 10lbs giving lumps of weight away to the field.

Drop The Anchor has since ran once, winning the 2M Grade B Handicap Hurdle at the DRF meeting, EUR 73,000 to the winner, and has risen 10lbs in the weights from 131 to 141.

Until the UK handicapper has his say then Cayd Boy has to give 4lb to Drop the Anchor, far less than the two previous times they have met this season, and Drop The Anchor is the joint shortest priced Irish horse in the County Hurdle at 14/1 or 12/1 NRNB.

I can’t see why Cayd Boy couldn’t be even better, on better ground, where he could use his potent turn of foot, and be ridden “icy” from the rear of the pack.

This would suit the County Hurdle, as its usually a race that suits hold-up horses, and a changing "end-of-race complexion".

If I am right (or nearly right), then he would have to be travelling well, possibly out wide with a good sight of his hurdles, to get him back in that cat-like swift jumping rhythm, and then stalk his way through (like Saint Roi last season, and Ferny Hollow in the Bumper) to take it up on the run-in.

I see Mark Walsh picking him again, but happy if Simon Torrens gets on him and claims 5lbs.

If the latter happened, and their 4lb weight differential was confirmed by the UK capper then Cayd Boy would have a quality 5lb claimer and receive 1lb from Drop The Anchor, instead of last time they met when he gave him 19lbs.

CAYD BOY has had 6 career starts (1 bumper and 5 hurdle races, finished 1st or 2nd in them all) and rapidly turned into a quality top 2M handicapper.

His body of work (for me) is a better profile than any novice hurdler entered here, with a similar amount of lifetime runs.

A lot depends on the UK handicapper now, hence why the 25/1 NRNB is the play.

Update: The one piece of 33/1 (without NRNB) with Unibet magically disappeared at 7.36am this morning.

Maybe an early-bird FJ reader took a flyer on the 'value' gamble of the extra points and gobbled it up.
Thats stopped me doing the same on 'weights day' if we had good news from the capper.

[Quevega]

Very thorough job Saxon .
Sounds convincing to me.
I started going through the JP entries for the Coral & County yesterday but only did the Coral.

I landed on Alfa Mix.

Fans of the US gameshow Jeopardy, may want to add the reasoning.

I may just skim read the county now, thanks to you.

[Saxon Warrior]

Very thorough job Saxon .
Sounds convincing to me.
I started going through the JP entries for the Coral & County yesterday but only did the Coral.

I landed on Alfa Mix.

Fans of the US gameshow Jeopardy, may want to add the reasoning.

I may just skim read the county now, thanks to you.

On waking from my slumbers, I've added a better end to the Cayd Boy article.

I am going to check out Alfa Mix now, though I know he had a very good profile last season already, as I srudied then backed him in last years Coral Cup.

[Quevega]

On waking from my slumbers, I've added a better end to the Cayd Boy article.

I am going to check out Alfa Mix now, though I know he had a very good profile last season already, as I srudied then backed him in last years Coral Cup.

Yep.
I've still not backed him (Cayd Boy) as I want to see his weight.
I've only backed horses that I think will be rated in the 130's so far. A couple might not be.
Like this trend.
But Cayd Boy might get clobbered.
This could affect whether they travel or stay at home.