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COUNTY Handicap Hurdle 2021

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  • #1

    COUNTY Handicap Hurdle 2021

    TO CLOSE BY NOON ON FEBRUARY 23rd

    CHELTENHAM
    Friday, March 18th
    THE RANDOX HEALTH COUNTY HANDICAP HURDLE RACE (CLASS 1)
    (Grade 3)

    TOTAL RACE VALUE GBP 100,000
    Distributed in accordance with Stakes and Prize Money Code GBP 56,270 to the winning horse The second to receive GBP 21,200, the third GBP 10,610, the fourth GBP 5,300, the fifth GBP 2,660, the sixth GBP 1,330, the seventh GBP 660 and the eighth GBP 340 for five yrs old and upwards

    TWO MILES ABOUT ONE FURLONG (2m 179yds)

    Enter by noon, February 23rd and pay GBP 125 stake
    Confirm by noon, March 12th and pay GBP 375
    Declare by 10.00 a.m. March 16th
    Weights published on March 3rd
    Penalties, after February 28th, 2022, a winner of a hurdle race (No penalty to increase a horse’s weight above 11st 12lb)


    PLEASE NOTE: A novice horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of three times in Hurdle Races in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code


    2021 Belfast Banter 6-10-0 33/1 Peter Fahey - Kevin Sexton RPR 137 (OR 129) 25 ran
    2020 Saint Roi 5-10-13 11/2F. W P Mullins - Barry Geraghty RPR 151 (OR 137) 24 ran
    2019 Ch’tibello 8-11-5. 12/1. Dan Skelton - Harry Skelton. RPR 154 (OR 146) 24 ran
    2018 Mohaayed. 6-10-8. 33/1. Dan Skelton - Bridget Andrews 3. RPR 145 (OR 139) 24 ran
    2017 Arctic Fire. 8-11-12 20/1. W P Mullins - Paul Townend. RPR 163 (OR 158) 25 ran
    2016 Superb Story. 5-10-12 8/1. Dan Skelton - Harry Skelton. RPR 148 (OR 138) 26 ran
    2015 Wicklow Brave 6-11-4. 25/1. W P Mullins - Paul Townend. RPR 153 (OR 138) 24 ran
    2014 Lac Fontana. 5-10-11. 11/1 Paul Nicholls - Daryl Jacob. RPR 149 (OR 139) 28 ran
    2013 Ted Veale. 6-10-6. 10/1. A J Martin - B J Cooper. RPR 146 (OR 134) 28 ran
    2012 Alderwood. 8-11-1. 20/1. Thomas Mullins - A P McCoy. RPR 148 (OR 139) 26 ran
    2011 Final Approach. 5-10-12. 10/1. W P Mullins - R Walsh. RPR 143 (OR 139) 26 ran
    2010 Thousand Stars. 6-10-5. 20/1. W P Mullins - Ms K Walsh 3. RPR 142 (OR 134) 28 ran


    2021 1st OR 129, 2nd OR 155, 3rd OR 140, 4th OR 139: Highest OR 156, Lowest OR 129
    2020 OR High 150, Low 132
    2019 OR High 153, Low 127
    2018 OR High 154, Low 133
    2017 OR High 158, Low 135
    2016. OR High 152, Low 138
    2015. OR High 146, Low 134
    2014. OR High 154, Low 132
    2013. OR High 154, Low 133
    2012. OR High 150, Low 132
    2011 OR High 153, Low 129
    2010. OR High 152, Low 129


    All dates for entries etc have been moved forward 6 days to match the race being 6 days later in 2021.

    No Jump Racing Pattern programme has been produced yet, so we dont know these entry dates for sure yet, nor the prize money values (I will update in full when these are known)
    xxxxxxxxx


    Betting as at 15/12/20 (Hills)

    20/1
    Main Fact
    Make Good

    25/1
    Benson
    Third Time Lucki
    Verdana Blue
    Capodanno
    Milkwood

    33/1
    Mohaayed
    Fire Attack

    40/1
    Scaramanga
    Oakley
    Sea Ducor
    Good Time Jonny
    Proschema

    100/1
    Christopher Wood
    Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 23 March 2021, 01:59 PM.
    "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
    Tags: None
    • Likes 1
  • #2
    Love it when these sorts of threads appear from you SW, I just know we must be getting closer to the season getting fully underway

    Comment

    • #3
      Love these threads, great work Saxon

      Comment

      • #4
        Was just rewatching day 4 of last year and took particular interest to Saint Roi and the path it went leading to cheltenham and he started off clonmel on Thursday just gone meeting and started with a fifth. Seen Willie Mullins had Capodanno with same connections finishing 3rd and given his record in race thought I’d have little speculative 1pt each way at 33-1 was interesting that he was one of a very few priced (although I fully appreciate that may mean absolutely nothing)
        • Likes 1

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by Smiley View Post
          Was just rewatching day 4 of last year and took particular interest to Saint Roi and the path it went leading to cheltenham and he started off clonmel on Thursday just gone meeting and started with a fifth. Seen Willie Mullins had Capodanno with same connections finishing 3rd and given his record in race thought I’d have little speculative 1pt each way at 33-1 was interesting that he was one of a very few priced (although I fully appreciate that may mean absolutely nothing)
          Yes, Saint Roi was stuffed in the race 12 months ago, then won easily next time out, at New Year.
          "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".

          Comment

          • #6
            In terms of profile and trends for the race, Saint Roi was a bit unusual. He was the first horse since Thumbs Up in 1993 to win the race on his handicap debut.

            I don't know for sure but I'm assuming the yard thought Saint Roi was going to be a very good Novice before his hudle debut at Clonmel and were surprised that as 1-3 Fav he finished 5th and 23 lengths behind the winner. Was the County County Hurdle already in their minds after that run or only when they saw the subsequent improvement at Tramore?

            Given the same connections, It will certainly be interesting to see whether Capodanno follows in the same footsteps but currently is it just a coincidence rather than history repeating itself.

            In terms of race trends, the OR rating of the winner hss got my attention to help narrow down the field.

            Between 2005 and 2016 all 12 winners had an OR in the 130s. Following recent wins by Arctic Fire 158 and Ch'tibello 146 its now 14/16 with an OR in the 130s but in that 16 year period 169 horses rated 140 or higher have been beaten.
            • Likes 1

            Comment

            • #7
              They are fantastic stats, what I found interesting was that he was in market for county hurdle already! Someone could have simply looked at same analysis I did, but agree on your commentary Saint Roi could be bit of anomaly, but was hoping that as they seen it worked it might be tried and tested methodology

              Comment

              • #8
                ...no idea why, but Ladbrokes have a ‘special’ for Miranda to win this @ 40-1. In the Handicap Watch thread Garrison Savannah suggests Miranda is normally kept to right handed tracks.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by Nortons who View Post
                  In terms of profile and trends for the race, Saint Roi was a bit unusual.
                  Yes definitely, but maybe we should be expecting more and more of these curve balls ?
                  Novices are hoovering up all the big handicaps, is that because the handicapper over penalises second season horses or maybe trainers are focussing on concealing horses abilities with the sole aim of sscuring a rating that can win races like the County.

                  No question in my mind Saint Roi falls into the latter category here, you don’t go from being beaten half the Clonmel straight by pigs to finishing a neck runner up in a G1 a few months later, and of course in between winning the most prestigious 2m handicap hurdle race along the way.

                  This is now an impossible race to call so far out where the leading contenders could all be currently sitting in the Supreme/Ballymore market or considered too bad to come here...

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Eggs View Post
                    ...no idea why, but Ladbrokes have a ‘special’ for Miranda to win this @ 40-1. In the Handicap Watch thread Garrison Savannah suggests Miranda is normally kept to right handed tracks.
                    Just to expand on this she’s run over hurdles at Ludlow, Musselburgh, Kempton, Sandown, and Wincanton.

                    I’ve never noticed anything “Asterion Forlonge” like about her and it could be a coincidence that all those tracks are right handed?

                    Incidentally, she has got a little form that ties in with this years County in that she beat Elusive Belle in a race at Kempton over Xmas. She was receiving 5lbs from Elusive Belle in that race mind, who of course finished 9 lengths behind Saint Roi back in March when 5th.

                    Wouldn’t be on my radar for this but just thought there may be some who find the above of interest on an otherwise slow news day
                    • Likes 1

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Garrison Savannah View Post

                      Just to expand on this she’s run over hurdles at Ludlow, Musselburgh, Kempton, Sandown, and Wincanton.

                      I’ve never noticed anything “Asterion Forlonge” like about her and it could be a coincidence that all those tracks are right handed?

                      Incidentally, she has got a little form that ties in with this years County in that she beat Elusive Belle in a race at Kempton over Xmas. She was receiving 5lbs from Elusive Belle in that race mind, who of course finished 9 lengths behind Saint Roi back in March when 5th.

                      Wouldn’t be on my radar for this but just thought there may be some who find the above of interest on an otherwise slow news day

                      ...just thought it was a strange one for Ladbrokes to price up as they only have one or two ‘specials’ and they tend to be in respect of high-profile Festival runners. I’m not aware of them taking RaBs.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Eggs View Post


                        ...just thought it was a strange one for Ladbrokes to price up as they only have one or two ‘specials’ and they tend to be in respect of high-profile Festival runners. I’m not aware of them taking RaBs.
                        Anyone can contact Ladbrokes on Twitter and ask for a Special to be added.

                        Some they put on for a few days, some they leave there.

                        I got four added on Sunday but didn’t like the prices, so didn’t back any of them. They said they would be put online for 3 days.
                        "Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".
                        • Likes 1

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Betting as at 15/12/20 (Hills)

                          20/1
                          Main Fact
                          Make Good

                          25/1
                          Benson
                          Third Time Lucki
                          Verdana Blue
                          Capodanno
                          Milkwood

                          33/1
                          Mohaayed
                          Fire Attack

                          40/1
                          Scaramanga
                          Oakley
                          Sea Ducor
                          Good Time Jonny
                          Proschema

                          100/1
                          Christopher Wood

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Anyone think cilaos Emery could come here ?

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Liammet View Post
                              Anyone think cilaos Emery could come here ?
                              Off 158 at the moment, Same as what Arctic Fire won it off.

                              Comment

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