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Upgrading the Fat Jockey forum!: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/fatjockeyforum

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Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

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  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

    Haha, he didn't really mention The New One did he?!
    Yep - full story.
    He was asked which was the race he would most like to win ?
    Obviously the champion hurdle.
    Then reeled it all off with tears and hand gestures and everything

    Cruel question really.

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    • Really struggling to understand why Ballyadam is still 7/1. Absolute EW bet to nothing with plenty near the top of the market looking like they might not line up for this. He's the clear 2nd best horse in the race for me.

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Can't Catch Me View Post
        Really struggling to understand why Ballyadam is still 7/1. Absolute EW bet to nothing with plenty near the top of the market looking like they might not line up for this. He's the clear 2nd best horse in the race for me.
        Without there really being any link in the form lines between Metier and the Irish. How can you be so sure that Ballyadam is the clear 2nd best in the race?

        I mean just reading basic stats Metier has a better OR and RPR. Is younger and less tried over hurdles so there is potentially a larger amount of improvement.

        Comment


        • Furthermore, Metier was impressive on the clock in the tolworth. Recording the quickest overall 2m time on the day and the fastest time, carrying more weight than the winners of the other 2m hurdle races, from 1 out to the line. This suggests he wil be able to stay on well off a quick pace which he will need to do in the supreme.

          I see that BF have just cut him into 9/2 clear 2nd Fav 4 places.

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          • 6 day decs

            The owls are not what they seem

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            • Originally posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
              6 day decs

              Going to be one of the smallest Supreme fields that I can remember, based on that list.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Diamond Geezer View Post
                6 day decs

                Who will / won’t be going from this list?

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Might_Bite View Post

                  Without there really being any link in the form lines between Metier and the Irish. How can you be so sure that Ballyadam is the clear 2nd best in the race?

                  I mean just reading basic stats Metier has a better OR and RPR. Is younger and less tried over hurdles so there is potentially a larger amount of improvement.
                  I did say 'for me' MB. I think his form amounts to very little and a rating of 148 is inflated on what he's achieved in my opinion. Is there a single horse he's beaten that has given his form any substance whatsoever? Shakem'uparry probably the only one that's done anything remotely respectable and Soaring Glory beat him just as easily as Metier did.

                  I'd have his rating sub 145 myself and probably the same as Soaring Glory on 143.

                  Obviously he can only beat what's in front of him, but Id like to see the form having a bit more depth before tackling a Supreme. I'd also have a biq question mark over him on the better ground, whereas I think Ballyadam will thrive on it.

                  Im hoping to find a nice match bet between these two.

                  Comment


                  • If I was being picky I’d say not quite as easily as soaring glory was getting 3lbs
                    plus arry had the benefit of dictating in the tolworth

                    Backtracking - I also quite like Ballyadam and if he can clean up his jumping then I think he can get close to AI. But, I think Metier is the one who we don’t have a clear measure of and (as the market suggest) has most likely chance of trumping AI.

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                    • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                      Going to be one of the smallest Supreme fields that I can remember, based on that list.
                      Good news for your FOR PLEASURE bet.
                      more chance of them letting him go. Might even back him myself now.
                      Although the fucking idiots will probably run in the champion hurdle and spoil that race.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Quevega View Post

                        Good news for your FOR PLEASURE bet.
                        more chance of them letting him go. Might even back him myself now.
                        Although the fucking idiots will probably run in the champion hurdle and spoil that race.
                        Haha yeah, although I'd be extremely surprised if he was good enough to trouble the principals. Will take nerves of steel and the fractions will need to be spot on from Harry Bannister.

                        He is also entered in the Champion Hurdle too, so who knows which way they will go.

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                        • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

                          Haha yeah, although I'd be extremely surprised if he was good enough to trouble the principals. Will take nerves of steel and the fractions will need to be spot on from Harry Bannister.

                          He is also entered in the Champion Hurdle too, so who knows which way they will go.
                          Would make Townends job that bit trickier.

                          Comment


                          • Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post
                            Will take nerves of steel and the fractions will need to be spot on from Harry Bannister.
                            Lets hope he's learnt where the inside rail is.

                            Comment


                            • Noticed some of the bookies are getting edgy with the prices for Bob Olinger in this

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                              • Originally posted by Quevega View Post
                                Noticed some of the bookies are getting edgy with the prices for Bob Olinger in this
                                Yes, I don't like it!!!

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