Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Big Bucks]

Metier price shortening, was toss up between it and Keskonrisk for my no loss Ten sheet, glad went with metier!

[Winging The Last]

https://twitter.com/RacingPost/status/1368896224737296393

Deal Dreal confirmed to not be going.

Top 4 in the betting are all shortening now with the two absentees in the last 24 hours

[Exar Essay]

I've got AI in a ton of multiples, BA covered and Metier in a win today and at the festival from the Tolworth ... which leaves me with a bit of a Hail Mary here. Keskonrisk or Gowel Road are the two I have my eye on.

Think I'll go Gowel Road at 25/1. I think he'll either be right there or found out. Don't think he's going to be staying on for a place which makes the Sky 'win only' offer appealing.

Will then look to cover Keskonrisk in the Hills 'paying 7 places' offer (if they do it again). On good ground, I could see him chasing a couple home.

[Quevega]

I've got AI in a ton of multiples, BA covered and Metier in a win today and at the festival from the Tolworth ... which leaves me with a bit of a Hail Mary here. Keskonrisk or Gowel Road are the two I have my eye on.

Think I'll go Gowel Road at 25/1. I think he'll either be right there or found out. Don't think he's going to be staying on for a place which makes the Sky 'win only' offer appealing.

Will then look to cover Keskonrisk in the Hills 'paying 7 places' offer (if they do it again). On good ground, I could see him chasing a couple home.

Just watching sam twiston davies mentioning they like his mark for the county and he's not good enough for the supreme, on ratings.
Obviously they my still take their chance - just coincidence I was watching it on youtube as you posted.

[Quevega]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9YdgVnJyUY

Think sam starts talking about 14 minutes in.

[ComplyOrDie]

Before the 40/1 disappears I do think Irascible is being overlooked in this market.

I've seen a lot on here about Ballyadam & Keskonrisk being the E/W value but Irascible finished ahead of the pair of them over the Christmas period, and probably could have beaten them further but for having to switch just before the run in, and, IMO, the only reason he didn't hold that form at the DRF was down to a change in tactics, trying to go from the front, and he cut his own throat doing this but still stayed on to finish 5th.

If connections resort back to the tactics from the Christmas period (which I think Henry said they would do) I think he's a cracking chance of holding that form with Ballyadam & Keskonrisk, despite the supposed excuses the pair had over that period, and at 40/1 is a pretty big E/W pop.

[Exar Essay]

Just watching sam twiston davies mentioning they like his mark for the county and he's not good enough for the supreme, on ratings.
Obviously they my still take their chance - just coincidence I was watching it on youtube as you posted.

Ah! Thanks for posting. I'd very much fancy him in the County. I liked his mark but didn't think Nigel would pass up the opportunity to have a pop at the Supreme.

[PresentingPercy]

I've got AI in a ton of multiples, BA covered and Metier in a win today and at the festival from the Tolworth ... which leaves me with a bit of a Hail Mary here. Keskonrisk or Gowel Road are the two I have my eye on.

Think I'll go Gowel Road at 25/1. I think he'll either be right there or found out. Don't think he's going to be staying on for a place which makes the Sky 'win only' offer appealing.

Will then look to cover Keskonrisk in the Hills 'paying 7 places' offer (if they do it again). On good ground, I could see him chasing a couple home.

With the way this race is shaping up, might only be 4 or 5 places max offered by the likes of Hills this year. I don't see a big field lining up. Take advantage of the PPBF 4 places now while there is juice in the bigger prices.

[Hurdles or chasing]

Galopin Des Champs priced up like he's not going here at 100/1 NRNB with 365. His target is hardly set in stone as it's Willie Mullins were talking about.
Mullins has plenty of horses a lot shorter in the betting for handicaps.

Bit of good ground could bring some improvement and only 9 and a half lengths behind AI the last day.

[Kevloaf]

Before the 40/1 disappears I do think Irascible is being overlooked in this market.

I've seen a lot on here about Ballyadam & Keskonrisk being the E/W value but Irascible finished ahead of the pair of them over the Christmas period, and probably could have beaten them further but for having to switch just before the run in, and, IMO, the only reason he didn't hold that form at the DRF was down to a change in tactics, trying to go from the front, and he cut his own throat doing this but still stayed on to finish 5th.

If connections resort back to the tactics from the Christmas period (which I think Henry said they would do) I think he's a cracking chance of holding that form with Ballyadam & Keskonrisk, despite the supposed excuses the pair had over that period, and at 40/1 is a pretty big E/W pop.

Yeah he's one I've cashed then re-backed as they're a standout price and NRNB.

The more it cuts up, you can see why he'd have a chance at hitting the frame.

Personally have the horse as a 3 miler in the future (well, I even thought this year!) but they wouldn't put me off a horse in a Supreme to stay on for a place.

Galopin Des Champs priced up like he's not going here at 100/1 NRNB with 365. His target is hardly set in stone as it's Willie Mullins were talking about.
Mullins has plenty of horses a lot shorter in the betting for handicaps.

Bit of good ground could bring some improvement and only 9 and a half lengths behind AI the last day.

Yep, said similar in my diary.

No downside at 100/1 NRMB... bar tying your money up.

[Cashew King]

Galopin Des Champs priced up like he's not going here at 100/1 NRNB with 365. His target is hardly set in stone as it's Willie Mullins were talking about.
Mullins has plenty of horses a lot shorter in the betting for handicaps.

Bit of good ground could bring some improvement and only 9 and a half lengths behind AI the last day.

Ruby has just been talking if Galopin for the Martin Pipe on the Paddy Power preview

[Al Ferof]

I really, really like Blue Lord for this to get Mullins off the mark early but as a second string.

I can’t logically tell you he will turn the form around, but for me he is on the upgrade, this is definitely his trip, and I just got the impression he’d absolutely love some spring ground. There’s a bit of Arctic Fire about him.

If he were to line up if also cover Ganapathi e/w who looked to have ability within his obvious inexperience. Again I think 2m would be the right trip.

[Kevloaf]

I really, really like Blue Lord for this to get Mullins off the mark early but as a second string.

I can’t logically tell you he will turn the form around, but for me he is on the upgrade, this is definitely his trip, and I just got the impression he’d absolutely love some spring ground. There’s a bit of Arctic Fire about him.

If he were to line up if also cover Ganapathi e/w who looked to have ability within his obvious inexperience. Again I think 2m would be the right trip.

I don't think any Mullins 2nd/3rd string have finished ahead of the first string, bar Getabird, when he was 11th and Sharjah romped into 8th.

jono posted in post 1...... looks solid





I'd be amazed if Blue Lord beat Appreciate It

[Al Ferof]

I don't think any Mullins 2nd/3rd string have finished ahead of the first string, bar Getabird, when he was 11th and Sharjah romped into 8th.

jono posted in post 1...... looks solid





I'd be amazed if Blue Lord beat Appreciate It

There’s always this time Kev

[charlie]

I don't think any Mullins 2nd/3rd string have finished ahead of the first string, bar Getabird, when he was 11th and Sharjah romped into 8th.

jono posted in post 1...... looks solid

I'd be amazed if Blue Lord beat Appreciate It

Me too, he runs in the county

Plenty of people seem to think AI will ‘get done for toe’, I personally think and hope he’ll piss up