Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Geordieboy83]

https://www.attheraces.com/news/2021...-ronan-mcnally

I am going to try and take the positives out of the article, but not ideal at all.

[Atlantic Viking]

there was a great side angle from their last race where you saw Ballyadam speed up and close on AI, it took AI about 5 strides before he matched the pace and 2-3 more before he went away again

Yep, as much as the contrarian in me wants to get AI beat given he's looked so solid for so long now, i'm struggling to see it. Almost as soon as Ballyadam looked like he might bridge the gap, it was put to bed. AI is certainly far from the greatest hurdler you'll ever see, but he's a good bit better at them than Ballyadam. It's certainly more profitable for me if Ballyadam does turn the tables but i'm struggling to see how.

There's some consistent form to look at in behind. Irascible has been held 9l by AI twice now.
Thedevilscoachman had Fire Attack held be 3 1/4l in a race AI won, then later the pair met again without AI and the gap was 4l in the same order.

Ballyadam was nearly 16l back from AI in that first Irascible encounter but improved to close the gap to 3 1/4l in the next. Again though, as soon as he looked like getting close, he was well held.
If we're clutching at straws then Keskonrisk was 3l infront of Ballyadam in that first match so he'd be entitled to further improvement, but we haven't seen him since and will he even turn up?

Which in my mind leaves us with Metier as the main (relatively) unknown quantity...
I know most hate overall time comparisons especially on different days and for good reason, I don't put faith in them either and wouldn't pretend to know what i'm on about, but I find them interesting regardless and it does no harm to look.
Orange entries to the list are ones on different ground to the main list but which I found noteworthy along the way.

Out of 3 appearances, Appreciate It only ran the fastest time of the day once. Metier did it both times and is the fastest at both tracks he's run at so far this season, but against much weaker opposition on paper.

2020/21 season
Cork 2m hurdle winners (Heavy, 9 hurdles)
Ganapathi, 4min 6.7sec (22/11/20)
Take All, 4m 11s (22/11/20)
Appreciate It, 4m 12.5s (22/11/20)
Thedevilscoachman, 4m 16.7s (22/11/20)
These are all well ahead of the times on soft-heavy on 06/12/20, with the best of the 4 runnings that day being Master McShee in 4m 19.6s

Leopardstown 2m hurdle winners (Soft, 8 hurdles)
Sharjah, 3min 56.4sec (29/12/20)
Get My Drift, 3m 57s (26/12/20)
Wide Receiver, 3m 58.4s (26/12/20)
Dysart Diamond, 3m 58.5s (26/12/20)
Honeysuckle, 4m 1.5s (Soft-Heavy) (06/02/21)
Drop The Anchor, 4m 4.1s (Soft-Heavy) (06/02/21)
Quilixios, 4m 5s (Soft-Heavy) (07/02/21)
Appreciate It, 4m 6.9s (Soft-Heavy) (07/02/21)
Appreciate It, 4m 7.1s (27/12/20)
Master McShee, 4m 8.1s (27/12/20)
Zanahiyr, 4m 9.6s (26/12/20)
French Aseel, 4m11.8s (27/12/20)

Ascot 1m 7 1/2f hurdle winners (Soft, 8 hurdles)
Metier, 3min 48.77s (20/11/20)
Buzz, 3m, 49.18s (20/11/20)
My Drogo, 3m 51.04s (18/12/20)
Not So Sleepy, 3m 51.90s (Heavy ground, Buzz 1 3/4l behind in 2nd) (19/12/20)
Tritonic, 3m 55.31s (23/01/21)

Sandown, 2m hurdle winners (Heavy, 8 hurdles)
Metier, 4min 10.3sec (02/01/21)
Guard Your Dreams, 4m 13.3s (02/01/21)
Benson, 4m 14.26s (05/12/20)
Hudson De Grugy, 4m 16.8s (02/01/21)
Fifty Ball, 4m 18.79s (05/12/20)
Elham Valley, 4m 20.56s (05/12/20)
Eamon An Cnoic, 4m 27.20s (18/02/21)
Golden Boy Grey, 4m 27.28s (05/12/20)
Red Rookie, 4m 37.60s (18/02/21)

[Priceiskey]

The way I’m seeing the race....
In the last 7 runnings of the Supreme 6 of them had one or more runner rated 150+
Shiskin (153)
Klassical Dream (154)
Summerville boy (150)
Labaik (144)
Altior (155)
Douvan (155)
Vautour (155)
Those horses went on to win with only Labaik busting the trend. The year Labaik won there was no horse rated 150+ will Melon top rated (149) who done very well to run 2nd on just his second ever start over hurdles.
Looking at this year Appreciate It is the only horse who fits the 150+ rating box sitting on (153)
Plenty seem to want to take him on but if you look at the facts, 2 x grade 1 hurdle winner and clear on ratings, he looks a solid favourite. Closest to him on ratings is Metier (149) who is ex flat bred and looked speedy like his pedigree suggests but he’s never been in a real race and never raced on an undulating track like Cheltenham. His trainer has also said more than once the soft/testing conditions are key to him and looking at the forecast it’s likely to start good to soft. I would make Ballyadam his biggest danger and Gordy says he’ll improve for better ground. His jumping is a little slow and cumbersome for a race like this though so he would need to improve on that front to get closer to Appreciate It who jumped poorly himself last time and still won. Soaring Glory was impressive in the Betfair but that was off just (133) and even with a 10 pound rise he’s still 10 pound off Appreciate it. Everything else looks like they have too much to find with possibles Blue Lord and The Devilscoachman coming out best of the rest if they come here.

[Hardy Eustace]

The way I’m seeing the race....
In the last 7 runnings of the Supreme 6 of them had one or more runner rated 150+
Shiskin (153)
Klassical Dream (154)
Summerville boy (150)
Labaik (144)
Altior (155)
Douvan (155)
Vautour (155)
Those horses went on to win with only Labaik busting the trend. The year Labaik won there was no horse rated 150+ will Melon top rated (149) who done very well to run 2nd on just his second ever start over hurdles.
Looking at this year Appreciate It is the only horse who fits the 150+ rating box sitting on (153)
Plenty seem to want to take him on but if you look at the facts, 2 x grade 1 hurdle winner and clear on ratings, he looks a solid favourite. Closest to him on ratings is Metier (149) who is ex flat bred and looked speedy like his pedigree suggests but he’s never been in a real race and never raced on an undulating track like Cheltenham. His trainer has also said more than once the soft/testing conditions are key to him and looking at the forecast it’s likely to start good to soft. I would make Ballyadam his biggest danger and Gordy says he’ll improve for better ground. His jumping is a little slow and cumbersome for a race like this though so he would need to improve on that front to get closer to Appreciate It who jumped poorly himself last time and still won. Soaring Glory was impressive in the Betfair but that was off just (133) and even with a 10 pound rise he’s still 10 pound off Appreciate it. Everything else looks like they have too much to find with possibles Blue Lord and The Devilscoachman coming out best of the rest if they come here.

Spot on Priceiskey.

1) Appreciate it
2) Ballyadam
3) Blue lord

Easy.

[ComplyOrDie]

Spot on Priceiskey.

1) Appreciate it
2) Ballyadam
3) Blue lord

Easy.

I don't think it will be that simple, but you never know

[Hardy Eustace]

I don't think it will be that simple, but you never know

I wish it was CoD!!

[Priceiskey]

Spot on Priceiskey.

1) Appreciate it
2) Ballyadam
3) Blue lord

Easy.

if only it was that easy haha.

[Jrow]

Imagine BO rocks up here, rated 150 and not a 7 year old. Can only assess his ability over 16F off of one run but he gave FH a run for his money and FH would have been fav this year, potentially shorter than evens had he progressed

[Priceiskey]

Imagine BO rocks up here, rated 150 and not a 7 year old. Can only assess his ability over 16F off of one run but he gave FH a run for his money and FH would have been fav this year, potentially shorter than evens had he progressed

Yes I have him on side 12/1 NRNB. He’s definitely not short of speed but I could only see him come here if ground was testing enough, which is unlikely.

[Spectre]

I think we all pretty much think Appreciate It is the most likely winner, but I can't shake the feeling there's going to be a boilover in the race.

If that happened what wins?

So my question is, remove Appreciate It, Metier, and Ballyadam from the field. What horse would you back and why?

[Istabraq]

I think we all pretty much think Appreciate It is the most likely winner, but I can't shake the feeling there's going to be a boilover in the race.

If that happened what wins?

So my question is, remove Appreciate It, Metier, and Ballyadam from the field. What horse would you back and why?

I’m still a Blue Lord believer but fear, once again, another G1 novice could head to a handicap....

[Spectre]

I’m still a Blue Lord believer but fear, once again, another G1 novice could head to a handicap....

I think so too. Saint Roi showed Willie the way last season, and Blue Lord looks to be Willie's best shot at the County.

[taylorch1990]

I think we all pretty much think Appreciate It is the most likely winner, but I can't shake the feeling there's going to be a boilover in the race.

If that happened what wins?

So my question is, remove Appreciate It, Metier, and Ballyadam from the field. What horse would you back and why?

Ganapathi. Last time out looked to be the only one gonna serve it up to Gaillard Du Mesnil then didn't see out the trip. Before that looked the best horse coming to the last before Dreal Deal swooped by but that was an odd race ran too quickly. Finally his debut maiden hurdle was 10 seconds quicker than The devil's coachman and 6 seconds quicker than Appreciate It on the same day.

[Spectre]

What's Willie said about him? He was at pains to say 'the owners' have entered Blue Lord in the County. Presumably he doesn't have the same excuse for Ganapathi's entry. Hmmm..............

[taylorch1990]

What's Willie said about him? He was at pains to say 'the owners' have entered Blue Lord in the County. Presumably he doesn't have the same excuse for Ganapathi's entry. Hmmm..............

GANAPATHI
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle or Ballymore Novices' Hurdle

He’s a horse I want to bring there. I think he was very green when I ran him over two mile six furlongs at Leopardstown to get more experience into him.

Willie Mullins stable tour on racing tv website.