Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Madmoose]

Metier going straight to supreme.

Worth covering small in a roll up if you have the fav and Ballyadam

[Mills182]

What’s everyone’s opinion on Dreal Deal? Won a messy looking Moscow Flyer and the form isn’t really stacking up but could have an EW shout at 20/1.

[Tangodelta]

What’s everyone’s opinion on Dreal Deal? Won a messy looking Moscow Flyer and the form isn’t really stacking up but could have an EW shout at 20/1.

I’ve had a small each way on dreal dreal

[ComplyOrDie]

What’s everyone’s opinion on Dreal Deal? Won a messy looking Moscow Flyer and the form isn’t really stacking up but could have an EW shout at 20/1.

He's had a brilliant season, but he's not one for me I'm afraid. Just struggle to see where the extra improvement required to even place in a Supreme is coming from. That said. he does seem to keep finding some sort of improvement. As you noted though, the Moscow Flyer form is pretty average.

[Geordieboy83]

I’ve been banging the drum all season for dreal Deal, but was for the handicaps, will be super tough for the horse in supreme, but you never know.

[ComplyOrDie]

Not much in the way of support behind Ballyadam on the exchanges at the moment for this, which would be a little bit of a worry. I'm sure it's nothing, but thought it may worth noting on here anyway.

[Moby123]

Not much in the way of support behind Ballyadam on the exchanges at the moment for this, which would be a little bit of a worry. I'm sure it's nothing, but thought it may worth noting on here anyway.

If you mention every one like this in the next few weeks you'll be busy!

[ComplyOrDie]

If you mention every one like this in the next few weeks you'll be busy!

I'll not be mentioning every single one, but those near the top of the market are sometimes worth noting, especially as we get closer to the festival. The exchanges usually liven up a bit, and indeed have done so since the DRF, so I wouldn't be expecting the 3rd fav in the Supreme to be friendless.

[isitmarchyet]

Not much in the way of support behind Ballyadam on the exchanges at the moment for this, which would be a little bit of a worry. I'm sure it's nothing, but thought it may worth noting on here anyway.

I love and loathe this time of year so much, haha. Hopefully it won't be anything but if Zanahiyr starts getting backed for this I'll be a bit worried.

[Billyboo]

I can't see the relevance of comparing times for a race, years apart?

How do you compare horses then if you dont compare how fast they run compared to others???? By looking at times between fences and the sections you can work out if a horse can run at a fast pace for the duration of the race and how it would fare depending on whether its tactical or a truly run race.

I only used summerville boy as an example as he was the last tolworth winner to go on and win the supreme, I understand people have backed metier and dont like the facts regarding the times but the horse has no chance in the supreme it's as simple as that.

I will keep using my proven methods of finding winners you can just keep backing as many horses as possible and claiming you know what your doing

[Kevloaf]

How do you compare horses then if you dont compare how fast they run compared to others???? By looking at times between fences and the sections you can work out if a horse can run at a fast pace for the duration of the race and how it would fare depending on whether its tactical or a truly run race.

I only used summerville boy as an example as he was the last tolworth winner to go on and win the supreme, I understand people have backed metier and dont like the facts regarding the times but the horse has no chance in the supreme it's as simple as that.

I will keep using my proven methods of finding winners you can just keep backing as many horses as possible and claiming you know what your doing

On to you early this time wasn't I?

[Billyboo]

On to you early this time wasn't I?

No I'm interested if you dont go by times and statistics what are your selections based on???

[Kevloaf]

No I'm interested if you dont go by times and statistics what are your selections based on???

You want me to explain why comparing times of races on different days, in different years, on different grounds, is not my favoured method of picking horses?



All I did was ask you a question. It's interesting you'd have a pop at my approach after 5 years of me sharing it on here, compared to your "proven methods" after less than 15 posts?

Forgive me for not bowing down to your greatness immediately.... perhaps you have some graphs to back up what you're saying?

[ComplyOrDie]

You want me to explain why comparing times of races on different days, in different years, on different grounds, is not my favoured method of picking horses?

In graph format only please

[Milbear0]

You want me to explain why comparing times of races on different days, in different years, on different grounds, is not my favoured method of picking horses?



All I did was ask you a question. It's interesting you'd have a pop at my approach after 5 years of me sharing it on here, compared to your "proven methods" after less than 15 posts?

Forgive me for not bowing down to your greatness immediately.... perhaps you have some graphs to back up what you're saying?

It’s like where’s Wally