Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Garrison Savannah]

Whether he is or isn’t, cracking post

[DenmanSacre]

What's interesting about the times concerning summerville boy and metier is at the last fence in the tolworth summerville boy was a full 12 seconds ahead of metier which on heavy going equates to approx 36 lengths, the ground for the last tolworth was actually better with soft in places.

Not sure I would agree the ground was better for this Tolworth compared to Summerville Boys. The going stick readings for the day show the track was softer this year. Every race on the card was also considerably slower than 2018.

[Run4Home]

The horse I'm really interested in a big way going on sectional times is my drogo now I'm not saying he is supreme winner material but his times reveal he is an out and out stayer with speed, his fastest times have been at the end of his races which means he has plenty left in the tank and even though he only has a g2 win this season he won that with ease considering it was only his 2nd start.

If he wins this weekend in style.which I think he will I think he will be rated around 146 which firmly puts him in with a solid each way chance, I have already had a few bets on him and I think his price will half by sunday evening.

I think I read My Dorgo skips Cheltenham for Aintree somewhere

[Billyboo]

Yeah aintree is the spoken about destination unfortunately but I'm hoping they decide to go supreme, I'm sure a dominant display sunday may have them thinking again

[Skysthelimit]

What's interesting about the times concerning summerville boy and metier is at the last fence in the tolworth summerville boy was a full 12 seconds ahead of metier which on heavy going equates to approx 36 lengths, the ground for the last tolworth was actually better with soft in places.

Metier actually runs the final section from the last quicker than sb by 5 seconds but still would finish a full 7 seconds behind, metier also hit a flat spot coming to the last while sb hits every hurdle!!!

I can send sections for most horses in the top of the betting in the supreme when I get a spare day!!!, it's all how you judge a race but for me for many years I have always found times a good way of finding winners!

What does interest me about metier is that metier runs solid consistent sections throughout his races which means he will most probably be finishing the supreme well picking off horses who have gone a clip but imo I really dont think he will have the tactical speed needed to be in contention at the bend if the supreme is run like is normally is, I dont think he is a stayer especially on soft ground and he hasn't shown he can quicken off a fast pace.

The horse I'm really interested in a big way going on sectional times is my drogo now I'm not saying he is supreme winner material but his times reveal he is an out and out stayer with speed, his fastest times have been at the end of his races which means he has plenty left in the tank and even though he only has a g2 win this season he won that with ease considering it was only his 2nd start.

If he wins this weekend in style.which I think he will I think he will be rated around 146 which firmly puts him in with a solid each way chance, I have already had a few bets on him and I think his price will half by sunday evening.

I think he's interesting as well and made a case for him in post 926. The race on Sunday is over a shorter trip than his intended run in the Sidney Banks which could be seen as a positive. There is some doubt about him coming here but 16/1 NRNB takes this risk away and there's been a bit of interest in him on the exchanges.

I think we're all looking for something that may challenge AI and a win at the weekend would see him shorten for this. Skelton thinks an awful lot of him, comments below after last run. This does also reference he may miss the festival but perhaps plans have changed, particularly with TTL disappointing last weekend.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horse...-drogo-allart/

[taylorch1990]

Trying to find some EW value in this as Appreciate It looks a rock solid favourite in this and in the end came back to Ganapathi. Thought his run at the Dublin Festival was very promising. Other than Gallaird Du Mesnil he travelled better than anything into the straight then blatantly didn't stay. Watched his second run back where Dreal Deal won and think he was the best horse in the race. They went a crazy pace due to Echoes In Rain and again he's seemingly beat everything and Dreal Deal sweeps past benefitting from being way out the back and picking up the pieces. Only had the 3 runs and seems to be improving for each run and experience. My issue would be that he's shorter for the Martin Pipe and his NRNB price at 16s is short enough to put me off for now.

The other one at a bigger price is Pipesmoker. Been mentioned in here a few times by others. Solid enough form last season and entered for Saturday over 2 miles. If the meeting goes ahead (looks very doubtful) and he wins he'd be Hendersons most likely runner for this and that in itself means he'd go off much shorter than the 40-1 NRNB available.

[Pendil]

I think he's interesting as well and made a case for him in post 926. The race on Sunday is over a shorter trip than his intended run in the Sidney Banks which could be seen as a positive. There is some doubt about him coming here but 16/1 NRNB takes this risk away and there's been a bit of interest in him on the exchanges.

I think we're all looking for something that may challenge AI and a win at the weekend would see him shorten for this. Skelton thinks an awful lot of him, comments below after last run. This does also reference he may miss the festival but perhaps plans have changed, particularly with TTL disappointing last weekend.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horse...-drogo-allart/

Looks like the Sidney Banks will be rescheduled for Market Rasen on Sunday week and hopefully My Drogo will wait for that. Soaring Glory may frank his form also by running well in the Betfair

[Billyboo]

I think he's interesting as well and made a case for him in post 926. The race on Sunday is over a shorter trip than his intended run in the Sidney Banks which could be seen as a positive. There is some doubt about him coming here but 16/1 NRNB takes this risk away and there's been a bit of interest in him on the exchanges.

I think we're all looking for something that may challenge AI and a win at the weekend would see him shorten for this. Skelton thinks an awful lot of him, comments below after last run. This does also reference he may miss the festival but perhaps plans have changed, particularly with TTL disappointing last weekend.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horse...-drogo-allart/

yeah after ttl at the weekend that's why I had a bit more on md, hopefully he runs here, a price for next years arkle would be interesting

[Skysthelimit]

Looks like the Sidney Banks will be rescheduled for Market Rasen on Sunday week and hopefully My Drogo will wait for that. Soaring Glory may frank his form also by running well in the Betfair

Thanks I wasn't aware of that being rescheduled. I'd see a run this weekend over the shorter trip as a bigger positive for this race as it would give them an extra week between races. If he runs at Cheltenham I think he may come here as it just looks a much weaker race than the Ballymore.

I liked Soaring Glory for this earlier in the season but he's been disappointing in his last two runs and I've written off the bet. It wouldn't be a huge surprise for Jonjo to get him ready for a big purse and he looks on a decent mark.

[opatcho]

The horse I'm really interested in a big way going on sectional times is my drogo now I'm not saying he is supreme winner material but his times reveal he is an out and out stayer with speed, his fastest times have been at the end of his races which means he has plenty left in the tank and even though he only has a g2 win this season he won that with ease considering it was only his 2nd start.

Just throwing in some pace maps into this, for the crack

Newbury

H1

27/11/2020

My Drogo

6

9

-3

-1

-3

4

-4

-10

They went slow over the first few furlongs, wont have that luxury in the supreme... but they went at a very strong gollap all the way to the line, even more so down the final 2-3 furlongs

Ascot

H3

18/12/2020

My Drogo

-2

-2

2

-4

-1

5

2

4

Ascot, the opposite even pace, slightly on the strong side, and then slowing down the final third


I'd be concerned about his experience heading into this. On a plus side, he could improve plently.
Watching him, he looks a big short, so not sure how he'll go in a supreme.

If he's a big price, he could one to back in the W/O markets. Will see how he fairs when I complete my analysis on this race

[Kevloaf]

What's interesting about the times concerning summerville boy and metier is at the last fence in the tolworth summerville boy was a full 12 seconds ahead of metier which on heavy going equates to approx 36 lengths, the ground for the last tolworth was actually better with soft in places.

Metier actually runs the final section from the last quicker than sb by 5 seconds but still would finish a full 7 seconds behind, metier also hit a flat spot coming to the last while sb hits every hurdle!!!

I can send sections for most horses in the top of the betting in the supreme when I get a spare day!!!, it's all how you judge a race but for me for many years I have always found times a good way of finding winners!

What does interest me about metier is that metier runs solid consistent sections throughout his races which means he will most probably be finishing the supreme well picking off horses who have gone a clip but imo I really dont think he will have the tactical speed needed to be in contention at the bend if the supreme is run like is normally is, I dont think he is a stayer especially on soft ground and he hasn't shown he can quicken off a fast pace.

The horse I'm really interested in a big way going on sectional times is my drogo now I'm not saying he is supreme winner material but his times reveal he is an out and out stayer with speed, his fastest times have been at the end of his races which means he has plenty left in the tank and even though he only has a g2 win this season he won that with ease considering it was only his 2nd start.

If he wins this weekend in style.which I think he will I think he will be rated around 146 which firmly puts him in with a solid each way chance, I have already had a few bets on him and I think his price will half by sunday evening.

I can't see the relevance of comparing times for a race, years apart?

[FrenchHolly]

I can't see the relevance of comparing times for a race, years apart?

Totally agree, unless it’s the same day and even then it can be folly too. Appreciate all the efforts that went into that post and everyone has different methods but really think that’s clutching.

[DenmanSacre]

I can't see the relevance of comparing times for a race, years apart?

Especially when he's stated the ground was softer for Summerville Boys Tolworth when every other piece of data tells you the opposite.

[Quevega]

Metier going straight to supreme.

[Kevloaf]

Metier going straight to supreme.

Ah balls, that doesn't help me

He's now just a bit annoying orange blur in my Supreme plans.