Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Can't Catch Me]

No I haven't but it's from a PTP / Bumpers background and according to the trainer it was being aimed at the Supreme so hopeful that if they go chasing it will target the Arkle with Appreciate It going for the Marsh perhaps. Given it's beaten Bob Olinger and Appreciate It in it's last two races I'm happy to take the 33s and find out anyway!

If he's going chasing then 33/1 could be one of the greatest bets of all time! He was my biggest bet of the season. Going to have a dabble myself... worth a few points risk.

[Viking Flagship]

I know many are heavy into this race by now, have taken positions and potentially even downed tools etc, but there are plenty of others (me) who aren’t in that position and there are still angles to be found.

As I just mentioned on the general thread, it’s not all about how your existing bets did this weekend, but also how you can react to these races and potentially find new value. The one who I’ve gone in on after today is Blue Lord who is 20/1 NRNB for both the Supreme and Ballymore. He’s now run well in 2 big trials, looking like giving Bob O a fight before running out of steam having pulled hard, and today keeping on really strongly after seemingly being outpaced at a key stage. If they can teach him to settle then he could be a force over 2 and a half, alternatively a stiff 2m at Cheltenham could be right up his street, and he really may not need to do any more than he did today to place in a Supreme. I think he has a touch of quality but is a horse they’re still learning about and who is likely to be improving, perhaps more than some others. At that price I’d like him onside as an each way shot whichever way they choose to go. I’d prefer the Supreme due to the lack of depth but my position in the Ballymore is stronger with GDM and Bob O so I’m happy to have him as each way cover at 20s. He’s one i know I’d definitely be a bit scared of come the day.

If I was starting from scratch I’d definitely back him at 20/1 for the Supreme and as of right now I believe he’s the value play in the race.

[Ice]

No I haven't but it's from a PTP / Bumpers background and according to the trainer it was being aimed at the Supreme so hopeful that if they go chasing it will target the Arkle with Appreciate It going for the Marsh perhaps. Given it's beaten Bob Olinger and Appreciate It in it's last two races I'm happy to take the 33s and find out anyway!

I'm starting to give this some consideration, at 33's wouldn't need much on.

[Ice]

Though i do tend to do a lot of bets twar, especially this far out.

[Saxon Warrior]

The British are going to win at least 10 Festival races, aren’t they?

But they don’t get as many column inches from us across the board, to match that strike rate.

This year, with virtually no cross-fertilisation of form between Britain and Ireland there may be some value in British contenders in some of these races, as the brits only have around four favs in the Festival betting markets.

[Kevloaf]

The British are going to win at least 10 Festival races, aren’t they?

But they don’t get as many column inches from us across the board, to match that strike rate.

This year, with virtually no cross-fertilisation of form between Britain and Ireland there may be some value in British contenders in some of these races, as the brits only have around four favs in the Festival betting markets.

That's a very interesting angle.


Personally, those people who backed British horses in multi's will not be rewarded.



I'd have the Irish juveniles, novice hurdlers, novice chasers all ahead. Novice chasers too, bar Shishkin.


Gordon will account for a few handicaps..... it's just so tough to work out the right British horses.



The British only have 13 horses under 10/1 ante post over all 28 races (and that includes Royal Pagaille twice in the NH Chase and RSA and he's unlikely to run in either)!

[ryanh97]

The British are going to win at least 10 Festival races, aren’t they?

But they don’t get as many column inches from us across the board, to match that strike rate.

This year, with virtually no cross-fertilisation of form between Britain and Ireland there may be some value in British contenders in some of these races, as the brits only have around four favs in the Festival betting markets.

I worked it out earlier, I have the Irish winning 23

[Bert]

Winning the deepest Grade 1 2m Novice Hurdle by 3L ?

What should people be raving about instead?


I wouldn't say he's over rated.... he's rated as the best, and literally has shown that so far?


His Christmas performance was better than todays, but todays was a better race?

Maybe I was expecting a bit more from him.

[Kevloaf]

Maybe I was expecting a bit more from him.

A 3L win is pretty good, no?

[TigerRolllllll]

How many do we actually think will make this?

Could look more like a Ballymore field on the day

Echo everyone’s comments re looking out for switches or late entrants

[Exar Essay]

Thinking on this race opening up, the fav aside, and reading comments re Quilixios or Zanahiyr potentially coming here, I thought the following quote from GE today was interesting.

“I’d imagine they’ll both have to go to the Triumph.”

At face value it rules out a left field move for one of them, but it’s the slight resignation he appears to have in doing so. I wonder if he will try and work on either owner to see if they were willing to redirect here? I’d imagine He’d have more chance with Z given that Q’s owners have Ballyadam who was far better this time out and has a live chance himself.

[Kautostar]

Thinking on this race opening up, the fav aside, and reading comments re Quilixios or Zanahiyr potentially coming here, I thought the following quote from GE today was interesting.

“I’d imagine they’ll both have to go to the Triumph.”

At face value it rules out a left field move for one of them, but it’s the slight resignation he appears to have in doing so. I wonder if he will try and work on either owner to see if they were willing to redirect here? I’d imagine He’d have more chance with Z given that Q’s owners have Ballyadam who was far better this time out and has a live chance himself.

Quilixios isn’t a novice so can’t run here

[Exar Essay]

Quilixios isn’t a novice so can’t run here

Thanks. I hadn’t appreciated that at all! Well that’s more straight forward

[Dandrew99]

Anyone know why Keskonrisk was pulled today?

Finished ahead of Ballyadam at Christmas who got a lot closer today (I know he didn't run his race at Christmas), JOB's horses were terrible over Christmas and seem to have improved, still think he could be a lively outsider here. Could appreciate the spring ground a bit more too?

[Kevloaf]

Anyone know why Keskonrisk was pulled today?

Finished ahead of Ballyadam at Christmas who got a lot closer today (I know he didn't run his race at Christmas), JOB's horses were terrible over Christmas and seem to have improved, still think he could be a lively outsider here. Could appreciate the spring ground a bit more too?

Yes, ground.