Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[MTR]

The future a big concern imo, did see someone on here saying the prestbury cup for Ireland at 1.33 being a steal and I can’t disagree with that.

[opatcho]

The future a big concern imo, did see someone on here saying the prestbury cup for Ireland at 1.33 being a steal and I can’t disagree with that.

Saw that last night... its going to be a blood bath

[Carnage at Taunton]

Saw that last night... its going to be a blood bath

Yep, but as long as ive got a few Irish winners i can cope.
But seriously, i hope the brits can get their act together cos races with the novice form coming together,and clashes like Shishkin and Energumene are what its all about for me.

[opatcho]

Yep, but as long as ive got a few Irish winners i can cope.
But seriously, i hope the brits can get their act together cos races with the novice form coming together,and clashes like Shishkin and Energumene are what its all about for me.

Mullins to win most of the grade 1 races
JP to win most of the handicaps
GE/Giggs two may pick a few up, they all appear to be running below par (virus in yard being rumoured), at some point GE will have a shed load well handicapped horses

Hendo to make one or two challenges for us. We may have a few good ones for the stayers!! YAYAYY lol

[Carnage at Taunton]

Mullins to win most of the grade 1 races
JP to win most of the handicaps
GE/Giggs two may pick a few up, they all appear to be running below par (virus in yard being rumoured), at some point GE will have a shed load well handicapped horses

Hendo to make one or two challenges for us. We may have a few good ones for the stayers!! YAYAYY lol

Might have to change my name..........Carnage at Cheltenham!!!

[EnvoyAllen]

its 80/1 for a reason, enjoy this season without wishing it away mate. Horses like these don't around so often.

You’re right.

Especially when it went 40/1 a fortnight later.

Especially when it’s now been removed completely from the market..

80/1, regardless of all racing eventualities between now and 13 months time, was a nice one.

[Saxon Warrior]

Feel like they're still working Ballyadam out and got a bit closer today. Hard to see past Appreciate It at this point though, although I continue to have this nagging feeling he's vulnerable up the hill, the problem is I can't really answer with confidence from whom?! I like Metier but there's only one winner in that argument on the evidence so far.
Main thing personally to take from today is, like many, being glad my Ballyadam bets now feel like they're properly back in play, but even before the mistake at the last, as soon as he got to Appreciate It he could never get any closer.
The good news is that I always do dreadfully in the Supreme anyway so there's no expectations...

Not knocking a dual Grade 1 winner, but Appreciate It isn’t the nailed on winner that his price suggests, is he?

Ballyadam got the last all wrong and would have been maybe 2 lengths 2nd without that.

They are the best of the Irish, for the Supreme, but none have taken on a British horse yet, over obstacles, or won at the Festival before (like other short favs Envoi Allen, Easysland, Shishkin, Monkfish have).

I think the Bob Olinger, Gaillard du Mesnil, Bravemansgame, Ballymore shakedown has the better horses in it.

[Moby123]

Provided it's not done itself a mischief today the 50/1 on Third Time Lucki is a massive over-reaction. That race today has nothing in common with a Supreme other than the distance. 10/1 for a top 3 finish for a horse that was only a few lengths behind Appreciate It in last year's bumper would be great value in a race that looks like cutting up a fair bit.

[opatcho]

Provided it's not done itself a mischief today the 50/1 on Third Time Lucki is a massive over-reaction. That race today has nothing in common with a Supreme other than the distance. 10/1 for a top 3 finish for a horse that was only a few lengths behind Appreciate It in last year's bumper would be great value in a race that looks like cutting up a fair bit.

Nice angle there

[opatcho]

Not knocking a dual Grade 1 winner, but Appreciate It isn’t the nailed on winner that his price suggests, is he?

Ballyadam got the last all wrong and would have been maybe 2 lengths 2nd without that.

i think the price factors in that AI has beaten everything in Ireland
and there’s nothing standing out from GB

i wouldn’t want to be backing him now at the price, but those sitting happy on double figures should be sitting happy right now

[Kevloaf]

As is sensible, now the hard work is done on Appreciate It, it's time to look for dangers....


I feel like Zanahiyr at 7/1 NRNB and Bob Olinger 14/1 NRNB are potentially worth backing? (No point telling me how unlikely you feel they are to run, I understand how NRNB works and appreciate tying up funds isn't for everyone) - They're both very unlikely but.....


Firstly, Given Quilixios won today, Gordon would still be fav in the Triumph. Saxon Warrior has done some bits on the times and Quilixios was quicker than Appreciate It today.

Personally, I don't think Zanahiyr has actually got the form in the book to be shorter than Quilixios BUT have to respect the vibe coming from the yard that Z is better...the market and yard disagree with me, and that's worth following

So if Quilixios technically put in a performance that'd have beaten Appreciate It today, and Zanahiyr is better than him, does it make it unfeasible that Gordon does run Zanahiyr here?

At 7/1 though, it's tight isn't it... not a lucrative price.



At double the price, Bob Olinger is interesting too. His 2nd to Ferny Hollow, at 2m, is interesting, given Ferny Hollow is the only horse to finish ahead of Appreciate It! Now obviously that was not over hurdles so you could just ignore it... but at 14/1, on balance, that's a decent bet each way?

The Ballymore doesn't look 'easy' after Gaillard Du Mensil and Bravemansgame have won Grade 1 'trials' for the race ... and if we have soft (or worse) would they look at dropping him in trip?

I don't think Bob Olinger would go off a double figure price in the Supreme.... so I think he's probably worth considering?

[Skysthelimit]

As is sensible, now the hard work is done on Appreciate It, it's time to look for dangers....


I feel like Zanahiyr at 7/1 NRNB and Bob Olinger 14/1 NRNB are potentially worth backing? (No point telling me how unlikely you feel they are to run, I understand how NRNB works and appreciate tying up funds isn't for everyone) - They're both very unlikely but.....


Firstly, Given Quilixios won today, Gordon would still be fav in the Triumph. Saxon Warrior has done some bits on the times and Quilixios was quicker than Appreciate It today.

Personally, I don't think Zanahiyr has actually got the form in the book to be shorter than Quilixios BUT have to respect the vibe coming from the yard that Z is better...the market and yard disagree with me, and that's worth following

So if Quilixios technically put in a performance that'd have beaten Appreciate It today, and Zanahiyr is better than him, does it make it unfeasible that Gordon does run Zanahiyr here?

At 7/1 though, it's tight isn't it... not a lucrative price.



At double the price, Bob Olinger is interesting too. His 2nd to Ferny Hollow, at 2m, is interesting, given Ferny Hollow is the only horse to finish ahead of Appreciate It! Now obviously that was not over hurdles so you could just ignore it... but at 14/1, on balance, that's a decent bet each way?

The Ballymore doesn't look 'easy' after Gaillard Du Mensil and Bravemansgame have win Grade 1 'trials' for the race ... and if we have soft (or worse) would they look at dropping him in trip?

I don't think Bob Olinger would go off a double figure price in the Supreme.... so I think he's probably worth considering?

I've been thinking they might run Zanahiyr here and think he would go off shorter than 7/1. I think the bet is Zanahiyr (Supreme) and Quilixios (Triumph) at 47/1 NRNB. Would be a massive tip for Quilixios if they switched Zanahiyr here.

[Kevloaf]

I've been thinking they might run Zanahiyr here and think he would go off shorter than 7/1. I think the bet is Zanahiyr (Supreme) and Quilixios (Triumph) at 47/1 NRNB. Would be a massive tip for Quilixios if they switched Zanahiyr here.

Yes, an excellent consideration. In fact, that'll do me..... there is no way Gordon switches Zanahiyr, unless he feels he's got the Triumph already sewn up.

[Moby123]

Can't argue with that Kev in principle but as you say very unlikely that either rock up. Especially Zanahiyr. Imagine you are the owner of that and Gordon says "Look I've got another one for the Triumph, he's not as good as yours but anyways I'm sending you to take on Appreciate It instead in the Supreme so I have a better chance of training the winner of both races"
If they were both owned by the same person then there would be a chance but they're not and there isn't

Bob I would see as the more likely of the pair but must think something would have to happen to Appreciate It for them to consider it......so why not stick Bob in the Supreme in a NRNB double with Brave and/or Gaillard?

[Skysthelimit]

I agree got nice prices on Zanahiyr for Triumph so cover bet. 51/1 with BFS. Bob Olinger not a bad shout and would go off shorter than 16/1. I can't see them dropping him trip but you never know and only downside is tying up funds.