Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Carnage at Taunton]

Struggling to get on-side with Metier, and yet to read a post which makes me think otherwise
Will take another look ahead of the Betfair hurdle, but have the GB novice hurdle form 5-7lbs behind the Irish

Did you not like his performance in the Tolworth?

[Quevega]

If Appreciate It demolishes this field today, like I expect.
We may get the highest rated novice hurdler for many years that's not ran in a handicap to achieve his rating.

For anyone not on Metier would be hoping he then runs in the Betfair, and the special double would be the way to go, depending on value offered.
If he runs in that and doesn't win then he doubles in price for the supreme anyway.
So if you still want to be against the likely favourite you can.

[Ice]

I also think appreciate it is a strong favourite but haven't got any of the fancy prices so have backed him to win today/supreme double. I thought metier was visually impressive but nothing behind has run since so hard to gauge the form.

[opatcho]

Did you not like his performance in the Tolworth?

Yeah, I did

What impressed you in that performance? They way he travelled? The way he powered away from the field?

For me, I look at the performance and take a look at the field in that Tolworth

Shakem Up'Arry - a highly tried 130 handicapper beaten LTO by a Colin Tizzard 2 mile hurdler (jesus... I didnt know Colin Tizzard had a winner this season, nor trained horses over this discipline lol) who finished 46L LTO in a Grade 3.

Tile Tapper - 129 novice, beaten next time out by Stellar Magic (5L), same horse is entered in the Ballymore at 60/1 and the AB at 40/1.

Do Your Job - Beaten by Llandinabo Lad in a listed race,

Lets take a look at the trainers who entered the Tolworth... stuffed LTO by 21 lengths in grade 2

Ben Pauling, Chris Honour, Michael Scudamore, Jame Williams, Oliver Sherwood, Chris Gorden. It not like these lot pump out Grade 1 novice hurdlers regularly do they

I'm trying to be opened minded here, but that Tolworth was s***e, complete and utter dog cr*p.

Metier was entitled to win by 12 lengths against this lot and he's going to have to show improvement in the Betfair Hurdle, by winning it. I have our handicap hurdlers down as "utter rubbish" for this season, so if Metier is to be challenger he needs to be winning next weekend in a style to prove he can complete in the supreme.

If thats the case, then why not take up the 7/1 for the Betfair hurdle. He's currently carrying 11-4, and the card may fall apart.

7/1 for the Betfair hurdle feels more than decent
7/1 for the supreme, pshhhh no thank you

[Carnage at Taunton]

Yeah, I did

What impressed you in that performance? They way he travelled? The way he powered away from the field?

For me, I look at the performance and take a look at the field in that Tolworth

Shakem Up'Arry - a highly tried 130 handicapper beaten LTO by a Colin Tizzard 2 mile hurdler (jesus... I didnt know Colin Tizzard had a winner this season, nor trained horses over this discipline lol) who finished 46L LTO in a Grade 3.

Tile Tapper - 129 novice, beaten next time out by Stellar Magic (5L), same horse is entered in the Ballymore at 60/1 and the AB at 40/1.

Do Your Job - Beaten by Llandinabo Lad in a listed race,

Lets take a look at the trainers who entered the Tolworth... stuffed LTO by 21 lengths in grade 2

Ben Pauling, Chris Honour, Michael Scudamore, Jame Williams, Oliver Sherwood, Chris Gorden. It not like these lot pump out Grade 1 novice hurdlers regularly do they

I'm trying to be opened minded here, but that Tolworth was s***e, complete and utter dog cr*p.

Metier was entitled to win by 12 lengths against this lot and he's going to have to show improvement in the Betfair Hurdle, by winning it. I have our handicap hurdlers down as "utter rubbish" for this season, so if Metier is to be challenger he needs to be winning next weekend in a style to prove he can complete in the supreme.

If thats the case, then why not take up the 7/1 for the Betfair hurdle. He's currently carrying 11-4, and the card may fall apart.

7/1 for the Betfair hurdle feels more than decent
7/1 for the supreme, pshhhh no thank you

Yep, the way he travelled and the way he finished the race.
My visual impression told me hes a horse that will be fine in a Supreme . Is he good enough to mount a challenge? Dont know, but i am trusting my eyes, sometimes it works sometimes it dont.
I know all about what he beat in the Tolworth,not much, but appreciate your work on that.
I look forward to Newbury next week, we should find out more.

[Exar Essay]

7/1 for Metier seems superb value for the Betfair Hurdle. Does that perhaps indicate uncertainty re his attendance?

[Carnage at Taunton]

If Appreciate It demolishes this field today, like I expect.
We may get the highest rated novice hurdler for many years that's not ran in a handicap to achieve his rating.

For anyone not on Metier would be hoping he then runs in the Betfair, and the special double would be the way to go, depending on value offered.
If he runs in that and doesn't win then he doubles in price for the supreme anyway.
So if you still want to be against the likely favourite you can.

Its not about wanting to be against the fav, i have him @ 14 for the double before his last race. Its about following what my eyes told me........i want Metier on my side.
I shall be looking for any offers next week.
Thanks Q

[opatcho]

My visual impression told me hes a horse that will be fine in a Supreme
Dont know, but i am trusting my eyes, sometimes it works sometimes it dont.

Which is fine, but I'm going to need better than "fine in a Supreme". A lot of horses do fine in a supreme and finish fourth.
I need more than this to be backing a 7/1 shot in the hottest 2 mile novice hurdle race of the year

Have you backed him at 7/1 for supreme

[Quevega]

Its not about wanting to be against the fav, i have him @ 14 for the double before his last race. Its about following what my eyes told me........i want Metier on my side.
I shall be looking for any offers next week.
Thanks Q

Have you not backed him yet. ?

I backed immediately after the Tolworth at 13-1, cos my eyes and logic told me that was value and he'd shorten further.
If anyone was not impressed with his run that day then they weren't watching, but you also have to factor in the things people have said regards the form, as it's very fair comment.
He is currently the best of the UK runners but the best of a pretty average bunch, based on ratings and consistency of performance.

I think I understand a little bit of your overall viewpoint with approaching ante-post betting, in that you seem open minded to most horses chances, and don't get swayed by the momentum or hype for many horses. And this approach has it's pro's and cons like most.

But what have you actually backed ?

[Carnage at Taunton]

Which is fine, but I'm going to need better than "fine in a Supreme". A lot of horses do fine in a supreme and finish fourth.
I need more than this to be backing a 7/1 shot in the hottest 2 mile novice hurdle race of the year

Have you backed him at 7/1 for supreme

Well i cant say too much as to his chances cos the form is simply not there that says i can with any substance. I think he will be fine in a supreme as regards the conditions of the race.Whether he proves good enough against the opposition, thats another matter. We should find out more next week, and i am more than willing to hold my hands up and say i was wrong,if next week shows hes not up to it. i hope and think he will prove up to it.

Nope not backed him, missed prices and offers before the Tolworth unfortunately. Last few weeks was thinking price would not shorten. So wait.
Got some thinking to do this week though.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Have you not backed him yet. ?

I backed immediately after the Tolworth at 13-1, cos my eyes and logic told me that was value and he'd shorten further.
If anyone was not impressed with his run that day then they weren't watching, but you also have to factor in the things people have said regards the form, as it's very fair comment.
He is currently the best of the UK runners but the best of a pretty average bunch, based on ratings and consistency of performance.

I think I understand a little bit of your overall viewpoint with approaching ante-post betting, in that you seem open minded to most horses chances, and don't get swayed by the momentum or hype for many horses. And this approach has it's pro's and cons like most.

But what have you actually backed ?

I should have backed straight after Tolworth but sadly i was too slow.

Apart from AI at 14, i have TTL and a few outsiders from earlier in the season like Dreal Deal and Keskonrisk.
Have done Ballyadam and Blue lord to win today double,in case they improve enough to beat AI.......not likely but worth a small outlay at tyhe iodds in case i feel.

[opatcho]

I'm in a different position. I have nothing backed and, unlikely previous years, I'm not rushing to back anything

Decided 2-3 season ago to hold fire until the day of the race, and then make my selections. I no longer back AP for the supreme, I found myself being stuck on one or two decent AP bets, only then to be trying to build a book and failing miserably. Found more success using the bookies offers to maximum profit

The way I see it, take AI out of the race. Now pick a winner? .... It's a open race. Which means the W/O market could be extremely valuable, and thats the route I'm going to take, especially if AI wins convincing today.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I'm in a different position. I have nothing backed and, unlikely previous years, I'm not rushing to back anything

Decided 2-3 season ago to hold fire until the day of the race, and then make my selections. I no longer back AP for the supreme, I found myself being stuck on one or two decent AP bets, only then to be trying to build a book and failing miserably. Found more success using the bookies offers to maximum profit

The way I see it, take AI out of the race. Now pick a winner? .... It's a open race. Which means the W/O market could be extremely valuable, and thats the route I'm going to take, especially if AI wins convincing today.

Fair enough Opatcho, understand your position. Good points re W/O market, will take that on board.
Wish you luck.

[Istabraq]

I have nothing backed and, unlikely previous years, I'm not rushing to back anything

Decided 2-3 season ago to hold fire until the day of the race, and then make my selections. I no longer back AP for the supreme, I found myself being stuck on one or two decent AP bets, only then to be trying to build a book and failing miserably

Very wise.
I think all the novice (hurdles) are difficult at the best of times and this year even worse given the loss of time usually set aside for debuts in April/May, and who would have thought Appreciate It had the speed for a Supreme six months ago ?
Fair play to all those that did.

As you say, plenty of options on the day...

[Kevloaf]

Appreciate It was 8/11 last night..... 2/5 I can see now?

That is