Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Carnage at Taunton]

Still writing off Metier? Oh well!!
maybe you are right to do that, for me it’s foolish to be so bullish in this game of novices

[Kevloaf]

Still writing off Metier? Oh well!!
maybe you are right to do that, for me it’s foolish to be so bullish in this game of novices

I don't think Metier would win the race tomorrow....
I also don't think he'd win the Betfair Hurdle....

Now, if he was 16/1 still, I would have backed him..... but at 7/1, he's not a good bet IMO.


Maybe at some point I'll cover him...... and if Appreciate It bombs tomorrow then I'll change my mind.




I don't get why you have an issue with me not liking him at the moment? At the moment, I think he's a shit bet.... it's fluid.... I'm not (and haven't) said I think Appreciate it is a certainty (not seriously anyway)..... I just have argued he's going to be the most solid favourite..... and I don't see what the issue is with that.

How anyone can argue he isn't rock solid is beyond me.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I don't think Metier would win the race tomorrow....
I also don't think he'd win the Betfair Hurdle....

Now, if he was 16/1 still, I would have backed him..... but at 7/1, he's not a good bet IMO.


Maybe at some point I'll cover him...... and if Appreciate It bombs tomorrow then I'll change my mind.




I don't get why you have an issue with me not liking him at the moment? At the moment, I think he's a shit bet.... it's fluid.... I'm not (and haven't) said I think Appreciate it is a certainty (not seriously anyway)..... I just have argued he's going to be the most solid favourite..... and I don't see what the issue is with that.

How anyone can argue he isn't rock solid is beyond me.

I’ll get staggered if he’s beaten?? Sounds like you have decided, or is that another un serious comment?
Absolutely nowt wrong with the way Metier has been improving throughout the season and his Sandown performance, and no way of knowing if that is good enough to beat whoever turns up in the Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

I’ll get staggered if he’s beaten?? Sounds like you have decided, or is that another un serious comment?
Absolutely nowt wrong with the way Metier has been improving throughout the season and his Sandown performance, and no way of knowing if that is good enough to beat whoever turns up in the Supreme.

If he beats tomorrows field, I would be staggered if he's beaten....as I don't think Metier or Third Time Lucki would win tomorrows race.


I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying I'll be staggered... I would not expect it.

I get the impression you think only mug punters would fancy Appreciate It.... I think you're trying to be too clever, and trends and actual form show that Appreciate It has LOADS more in his favour...so yea, at this point, if Appreciate It wins tomorrow I'll be STAGGERED if he's beaten.





If he loses tomorrow, I'll end up getting Metier on board

[ComplyOrDie]

I'll repeat myself, as of RIGHT NOW, I feel Appreciate It is the strongest fav in the Supreme since Douvan. If I'm wrong, we'll know tomorrow... if he wins tomorrow, and Third Time Lucki and Metier are stil lthe main dangers.... I'll get staggered if he's beaten.

I hope you're right boss!

He's become a fair result for myself now, mostly down to your persistence about him, and to think I had him down as a Bartlett type early on What a dog!

[Carnage at Taunton]

If he beats tomorrows field, I would be staggered if he's beaten....as I don't think Metier or Third Time Lucki would win tomorrows race.


I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm saying I'll be staggered... I would not expect it.

I get the impression you think only mug punters would fancy Appreciate It.... I think you're trying to be too clever, and trends and actual form show that Appreciate It has LOADS more in his favour...so yea, at this point, if Appreciate It wins tomorrow I'll be STAGGERED if he's beaten.





If he loses tomorrow, I'll end up getting Metier on board

Well you can’t say it won’t happen cos of course you don’t know, like the rest of us.
I fancy AI and he’s a good winner for me, and I have not backed Metier yet as was too slow and missed prices and the special Tolworth supreme 33 job, but that don’t stop
me thinking at some point I need to back him cos I have this feeling he will relish the Supreme conditions. Might well be on the day now.
if you are in a position to back him Kev, then do it don’t worry about his price right now imo

[Kevloaf]

Well you can’t say it won’t happen cos of course you don’t know, like the rest of us.
I fancy AI and he’s a good winner for me, and I have not backed Metier yet as was too slow and missed prices and the special Tolworth supreme 33 job, but that don’t stop
me thinking at some point I need to back him cos I have this feeling he will relish the Supreme conditions. Might well be on the day now.
if you are in a position to back him Kev, then do it don’t worry about his price right now imo

I haven't said it won't happen... I am saying I'll be staggered.

Have you never been staggered by something? I'm staggered people are racist? ....but they are!


I've never suggested I wouldn't ever get Metier onside, in fact I've been nice about him....



I'm not sure what you're annoyed about..... I really fancy Appreciate It right now, if he wins tomorrow, I'll fancy him even more..... where I'll be staggered if he's beaten..... but being staggered means surprised doesn't it, not that I'm an idiot.

[Carnage at Taunton]

I haven't said it won't happen... I am saying I'll be staggered.

Have you never been staggered by something? I'm staggered people are racist? ....but they are!


I've never suggested I wouldn't ever get Metier onside, in fact I've been nice about him....



I'm not sure what you're annoyed about..... I really fancy Appreciate It right now, if he wins tomorrow, I'll fancy him even more..... where I'll be staggered if he's beaten..... but being staggered means surprised doesn't it, not that I'm an idiot.

Yep I know what staggered means. I hope you have Metier on your side come the day of the race, then I think we will both have a better chance of getting the winner.

[Kevloaf]

Yep I know what staggered means. I hope you have Metier on your side come the day of the race, then I think we will both have a better chance of getting the winner.

Obviously a better chance of having the winner.... I could back all of them and make that a fact (Not unfeasible)


If Appreciate It wins tomorrow, I don't think I'll be worried enough to need Metier in at 7/1....


Not saying he can't win, not saying I wouldn't back him at a bigger price.... but I would really fancy AI's chances if he wins tomorrow.




Are you backing Third Time Lucki, he's evens to win tomorrow and will shorten if he wins....



I'm not, as I'm not scared of him....

[opatcho]

Struggling to get on-side with Metier, and yet to read a post which makes me think otherwise
Will take another look ahead of the Betfair hurdle, but have the GB novice hurdle form 5-7lbs behind the Irish

[Carnage at Taunton]

Obviously a better chance of having the winner.... I could back all of them and make that a fact (Not unfeasible)


If Appreciate It wins tomorrow, I don't think I'll be worried enough to need Metier in at 7/1....


Not saying he can't win, not saying I wouldn't back him at a bigger price.... but I would really fancy AI's chances if he wins tomorrow.




Are you backing Third Time Lucki, he's evens to win tomorrow and will shorten if he wins....



I'm not, as I'm not scared of him....

Fair enough Kev, personally I can’t separate AI and Metier on the visual impression they have given me, so am happy that I will have both on my side.
Yes I have backed TTL.

[Kevloaf]

Fair enough Kev, personally I can’t separate AI and Metier on the visual impression they have given me, so am happy that I will have both on my side.
Yes I have backed TTL.

Fair enough....

If Metier wins, I assure you, you'll get my acknowledgement


I have said previously I just missed the price.... I should have backed pre-Tolworth.... it's my usual approach...

So there is an element of me knowing I've missed a price, but at 7/1 I know I can't add him right now...

If Appreciate It loses tomorrow, I might add at 7/1 straight away!


Hopefully I don't need to



TTL, for me, won't reverse the form from the bumper.... as AI has improved more for hurdles AND was better already....

I could be wrong, of course

[Carnage at Taunton]

Fair enough....

If Metier wins, I assure you, you'll get my acknowledgement


I have said previously I just missed the price.... I should have backed pre-Tolworth.... it's my usual approach...

So there is an element of me knowing I've missed a price, but at 7/1 I know I can't add him right now...

If Appreciate It loses tomorrow, I might add at 7/1 straight away!


Hopefully I don't need to



TTL, for me, won't reverse the form from the bumper.... as AI has improved more for hurdles AND was better already....

I could be wrong, of course

Ha ha, yeh we can all be wrong!! In this game most definitely.
Tomorrow I’m hoping that I’m not wrong I’m not giving up on Keskonrisk just yet and hoping that Mr Coldstone can prove to be a player in this.
wish you luck Kev.

[Kevloaf]

Ha ha, yeh we can all be wrong!! In this game most definitely.
Tomorrow I’m hoping that I’m not wrong I’m not giving up on Keskonrisk just yet and hoping that Mr Coldstone can prove to be a player in this.
wish you luck Kev.

Yes best of luck CaT

[charlie]

I'll repeat myself, as of RIGHT NOW, I feel Appreciate It is the strongest fav in the Supreme since Douvan. If I'm wrong, we'll know tomorrow... if he wins tomorrow, and Third Time Lucki and Metier are stil lthe main dangers.... I'll get staggered if he's beaten.

I agree and think staggered is right. 5/2 after a demolition job like last time becomes what later today, 5/4? For me it's not just weaker looking opposition, he actually looks really really good. Whilst I'd love Ballyadam to reverse the form, I see no chance of it happening and think AI will whallop him.