Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[FinalFurlong91]

Hopes of Blue Lord heading here receding as he’s entered in the 22f G1 race next week, looked a non stayer to me last time and really thought he’d have a sniff at the minimum trip, Mullins may yet surprise us of course....

Hes in both the 2m and 2m6 isn't he

[Istabraq]

Hes in both the 2m and 2m6 isn't he

He is, my thinking however is that if they believed he’d have the speed for 2m they wouldn’t even have considered the 22f option.
I could be way off, hope so....

[germanshepherd]

He is, my thinking however is that if they believed he’d have the speed for 2m they wouldn’t even have considered the 22f option.
I could be way off, hope so....

Elixir Dainay ran 2m4 then 2m6 before Supreme.

[Carnage at Taunton]

For Kev and Opatcho......would you be kind enough to provide details/specifics of profile you are referring to? Hope that’s ok, I would be very interested, tia

[Istabraq]

Elixir Dainay ran 2m4 then 2m6 before Supreme.

True, can’t help thinking it’s an odd prep for a Supreme bid...

[Kevloaf]

For Kev and Opatcho......would you be kind enough to provide details/specifics of profile you are referring to? Hope that’s ok, I would be very interested, tia

Have a read through that ... http://www.gaultstats.com/1-30-skybet-supreme-nov-hdle


As I've said multiple times, I personally do not agree with the profile thing or trends as a reason to rule out a horse, I'll always weigh them up on their own merits however I did say "it adds to the arguement of not fitting the profile" and the profile I reference, is in the above excellent trend research .... essentially, just because I don't follow it to the letter personally, doesn't mean I don't understand why people do - and I can't deny, on trends, I wouldn't be with Metier.... whether I end up with him or not will factor that in.

The "right profile" and "wrong profile" are how you interpret it.

Hope that helps explain my thoughts.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Have a read through that ... http://www.gaultstats.com/1-30-skybet-supreme-nov-hdle


As I've said multiple times, I personally do not agree with the profile thing or trends as a reason to rule out a horse, I'll always weigh them up on their own merits however I did say "it adds to the arguement of not fitting the profile" and the profile I reference, is in the above excellent trend research .... essentially, just because I don't follow it to the letter personally, doesn't mean I don't understand why people do - and I can't deny, on trends, I wouldn't be with Metier.... whether I end up with him or not will factor that in.

The "right profile" and "wrong profile" are how you interpret it.

Hope that helps explain my thoughts.

Many thanks Kev for taking the time, i shall have a read of that later, much appreciated

[opatcho]

For Kev and Opatcho......would you be kind enough to provide details/specifics of profile you are referring to? Hope that’s ok, I would be very interested, tia

Yeah sure, but you may regret asking now after you see the length of response lol

I love getting stuck into the supreme, its such an interesting race and it helps being the first race on the card.
As Kev mentioned, profiling a horse is a fraction of my selection process for the supreme. Its based on stats and trends, and I have also incorporated dosage into the equation more recently (last 2-3 years). This approach works stupidly well for Paddy Power Gold Cup... this year I was able to pick out Cole Cody using this approach and I this approach had the likes of Slate House scoring highly, Slash of Ginge/Starchitct/Le Prezien all in the top 3 (although I backed the later two though - dammit!!!!!), and Taquin Du Seuil

In terms of the supreme, I started collating and scoring each horses based on trends and dosages. I started to notice a pattern, one which I couldn't ignore.

Here's the scoring for the top 3 horses in the last few supremes. Anything above 13 is considered to be very very good. CD dosage in ()

2020
14 (-0.17) Abacadadras (was my main selection on the day)
12 (0.22) Shiskin
13 (0.21) Asterion Forlonge

For the 2017-2019 Supreme, top 3 places summarised below

2019
14 (0.3) Klassical Dream
5 (0)Thomas Derby
10 (0.19) Itchy Feet

2018
11 (0.25) Summerville Boy
10 (0) Kalashnokov
Lost Mengi Khan's score. Will try and dig out getabird and sharjah to see if they would have scored highly

2017
14 (-0.06) Labaik
13 (1.2!) Melon (Backed Melon that day, but his dosage is particularly unusual for a supreme top 3 horse)
9 (-0.09) Buveur D'Air


As mention, I also use dosages for this race with the main focus around CD which indicate the pedigree bias towards stamina/speed. Trends over the last 10 years show you want CD below 0.4, ideally I want to see a minus figure

I've added the dosages in brackets above for reference. FYI Altior is -0.05, Douvan (-0.25), Vautour (0.1), Champange Fever (-0.88)
Interesting.... Appreciate It is 0.75, Metier is -0.17

This makes up 30-40% of my profiling for the supreme.

The remaining is what you would more typically use including trainer/jockey/horse form, performance of certain goings, I personally want to see a supreme horse run at Chelt, Naven, Punch or Leop, jumping, freshness, March being the target or not, and added bonus if trained by the big 3

As you can see, I'm not "lazy" when it comes profiling the supreme. I probably over think this race, and spend way too much time applying this short of selection analysis on one race. However, I am finding this particular approach help shortlist and profile certain types for this race, and I actually enjoy it

Others on here (with way more experience) can probably profile a horse by watching 2-3 races, keeping tabs on how the form stacks up, and have a gauge as to how much horses can improve going into this race. Otherwise will play the antepost markets, seeking value based on early profiling.

I'm analytical and I dont like to play the antepost market for this race - I've tried it over 2 seasons and ended up losing too many points (redirections, injuries, end up not being good enough). So I like to use trends and stats for this race to help create a shortlist, then on with re-watching races to complete a visual and form analysis (how does the horse jump, how does the horse carry themselves through the race, are they improving from their last run etc). Then back horses closer to the race when I'm able to collect such information

It's only the Supreme I do this for.
Take the Arkle, one race later, I stick to visual analysis for this race - does the horse travel and jump quick and low over their fences. I don't care able trends that much here, nor dosages.
Another example - Big handicaps at the fest. Have no chance doing this level of analysis given the shear number of horses in before 48 decs. Plus, better off just profiling a shortlist based on jockey booking, trainer and who you think has been targeted for the race. Someone did a great write up for this in terms of how much horses win or place for GE. Again, I'm not one for AP better in these handicaps

Coming back to the supreme. I will complete my homework after the DRF, and will see who finishing at the top of my shortlist. As it stands, and from my initial analysis I don't really like Metiers profile based on the following early thoughts

1) Not keen on these irish flat horses. Yeah, "but Labaik was". He was 3-4 x the price and was trained by GE, not Fry
2) The trainer, I just don't think he's able to get horse to peak at the right time. He has a good one here, and he doesnt have many, so does he win as much as he can whilst he can, or does he go for the big one in March. I think he'll go for the Betfair hurdle
3) Not keen on Betfair hurdle horses. Yes, they can run well in the supreme but not many go off and win. You can argue that this years supreme is poor. I can argue the novice hurdlers from this side of the shores have been terrible! Same with our handicap chasers. Ref: Chatham Street Lad winning Cavair Gold Cup by 15 lengths, The Shutter winning the Greatwood by 3 lengths with "comfortably" mentioned in the write up
4) Although the Irish look to have a weak hand in this division, I think ours are significantly weaker


This is where I am at the moment. Right this minute, I don't like Metier's profile. It doesn't mean he can't win the race, 4 horse could drop out between now and March including AI. AI could end up being slower than Battleoverdoyen. I have the Betfair hurdle and DRF to help confirm where two are, and I'm in no rush right this mi

[DeeBee]

opatcho Interesting reading... will look forward to your findings post DRF

[Carnage at Taunton]

Blimey opatcho that’s some response!! Thank you very much for taking the time to post that. I have quickly scanned over it and will look more closely when I have a bit more time. One quick question that does spring to mind if I may......would you expect Tolworth winners to have a low dosage number?

[opatcho]

Blimey opatcho that’s some response!! Thank you very much for taking the time to post that. I have quickly scanned over it and will look more closely when I have a bit more time. One quick question that does spring to mind if I may......would you expect Tolworth winners to have a low dosage number?

CD's for previous Tolworth winners

Metier (-0.17)
Fiddlerontheroof (-0.50)
Elixir De Nutz (-0.14)
Summerville Boy (0.44)
Finian's Oscar (-0.44)
L'Ami Serge (0.25)
Yorkhill (-0.50)
Royal Boy (0.08)

You can argue bias towards lower figures. I always used this as a guide, and not a definitive guide to whether a horse stays or not
Some may say the value of analysing dosages/pedigree is worthless for national hunters. I say it can help pick out horses with unusual pedigree and something to be a little concerned about.
It always come back to watching the horse runs, understanding what their best horse is trip and whether their running style suits that race

For the Tolworth, it would be interesting to complete this for top 3 over the last 10 years and see whether there is a bias towards lower CD's, and picking out beaten favourite to see what their dosage was - just of our interest

[opatcho]

Metier - just throwing that out. Would those who arent keen on Metier because of a potential run in the Betfair Hurdle be more positive on the horse IF goes straight to the supreme. This could be likely given weather conditions and the Betfair hurdle going ahead

[Carnage at Taunton]

CD's for previous Tolworth winners

Metier (-0.17)
Fiddlerontheroof (-0.50)
Elixir De Nutz (-0.14)
Summerville Boy (0.44)
Finian's Oscar (-0.44)
L'Ami Serge (0.25)
Yorkhill (-0.50)
Royal Boy (0.08)

You can argue bias towards lower figures. I always used this as a guide, and not a definitive guide to whether a horse stays or not
Some may say the value of analysing dosages/pedigree is worthless for national hunters. I say it can help pick out horses with unusual pedigree and something to be a little concerned about.
It always come back to watching the horse runs, understanding what their best horse is trip and whether their running style suits that race

For the Tolworth, it would be interesting to complete this for top 3 over the last 10 years and see whether there is a bias towards lower CD's, and picking out beaten favourite to see what their dosage was - just of our interest

Many thanks opatcho

[Outlaw]

If nothing else hearing how some members go to all sorts of research depths for their picks is eye opening. Bar 2yo or juveniles guessing their stamina the closest i hear of dosage in racing is when the Irish get in the stables to stop one.

[Smiley]

Running them trends for the supreme has incredible strike rate, looking at your analysis. I note you say you don’t do for arkle, which I get, but are there any other races that have similar or better trend figures than the supreme? Sorry can’t see how to reply opatcho