Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Scooby91]

Just to add I think he is a poor judge, and people only listen to his.... because he provides no ROI. Of anything put up to my knowledge. And has the financial and commercial backing.

[Scooby91]

I’m not disagreeing with you, but surely there’s some knowledgable traders who would be looking to take Zanahiyr on then due to the above? Is it just because Saint Sam was short in the market before Zanahiyr beat him?

My issue with the horse is that I believe Duffel Coat has shown the best form for Gordon so far and is far bigger, and then you’ve also got Quilixios who has a steedy reputation again at a bigger price - so I would be opposing based on not even knowing whether he’s the best horse in the yard never mind the market.

How do you know thyre aren't knowledgeable traders looking to lay him, your hardly going to tie up the money at this stage when you know you can get him on the day.

[dannycraigpirates]

How do you know thyre aren't knowledgeable traders looking to lay him, your hardly going to tie up the money at this stage when you know you can get him on the day.

True, not something I had considered. I’m not one for laying horses - a complete different mentality I’m guessing.

any thoughts on Micro Manage @ 55s nrnb on bf for the supreme?

[Scooby91]

True, not something I had considered. I’m not one for laying horses - a complete different mentality I’m guessing.

any thoughts on Micro Manage @ 55s nrnb on bf for the supreme?

he'll prob win tomorrow and shorten.
However not one for me,

I have been happy to let horses I dont fancy shorten considerably all season, rather than be ahead of the market but on something I dont like.

But i have always noted them in my own weeks ahead thread for others that may like them themselves.

[dannycraigpirates]

I can’t imagine a way it runs in the supreme if beaten tomorrow so have taken some of that nrnb price

[The King Pimm]

It isn't though matey....

2 pt on Appreciate It to win, gets you 7.5 pts back (5.5 pts profit)
(2 pts) 1 pt e/w on Third Time Lucki and him placing, gets you 4.2 pts back (2.2 pts profit)

Yeah I just ran the figures through my bet calculator and you’re right. It’s a flawed argument on my behalf but is there more value in Third Time Lucki placing at 16/1 at Antepost paying 3 places instead of Appreciate It winning at 11/4?? Appreciate It has to win for a return whilst Third Time Lucki has 2 places to fill to get you a return?? I think I might be trying to convince you that if you try and grab the cheese from the other end of the mouse trap you won’t get hurt as much as taking the trap head on

I’m finding it hard to back Appreciate It any more than I have and looking for a credible alternative. I can’t remember a Supreme where I have felt so despondent with 6 weeks to go. Appreciate It isn’t a genuine 2 miler, can you see him competing for the Churdle or Arkle next season?? My first bet on him in May was for the Albert Bartlett and it looked realistic. I think he’s Fav for the Supreme through default and not plan.

[Kevloaf]

Yeah I just ran the figures through my bet calculator and you’re right. It’s a flawed argument on my behalf but is there more value in Third Time Lucki placing at 16/1 at Antepost paying 3 places instead of Appreciate It winning at 11/4?? Appreciate It has to win for a return whilst Third Time Lucki has 2 places to fill to get you a return?? I think I might be trying to convince you that if you try and grab the cheese from the other end of the mouse trap you won’t get hurt as much as taking the trap head on

I’m finding it hard to back Appreciate It any more than I have and looking for a credible alternative. I can’t remember a Supreme where I have felt so despondent with 6 weeks to go. Appreciate It isn’t a genuine 2 miler, can you see him competing for the Churdle or Arkle next season?? My first bet on him in May was for the Albert Bartlett and it looked realistic. I think he’s Fav for the Supreme through default and not plan.

Given the lack of perceived depth in the novice hurdles (especially middle distances) I can see him being compeititve in an Arkle. Champion Hurdle not so much...

I tink he'll be ante post fav for the Arkle, Marsh and RSA to be honest.

I did back him for the RSA 2022 quite speculatively at 50/1 but that was when I thought he'd be a Ballymore horse.

If I was forced now, I'd say he's most likely to go for the Marsh but only because Willie will have other options at 2m (Elixir D'Ainay, Ferny Hollow etc)...


I would have disagreed with you at the time about the Albert Bartlett (although I'd have him fav for that too).... I just think he's head and shoulders the best novice hurdler this season, so I am not taking him on.

I think he'd fucking wallop Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame for example... or Stattler or whatever none grade 1 3 milers are in that market.


He's just easily the best for me. The second fav is not good enough to win any Supreme, and third fav is the horse you mention, who Appreciate It comfortably beat in the bumper....


I just can't see reason to take him on.

[Pendil]

People have a snobbery about picking bigger priced horses each way instead of short priced favourites to win. In fact I’d go as far as saying, most people would rather back a 25/1 loser who ran well in defeat than a 1/2 winner. More fool them

Give me a 25/1 shot that places @ 25/1, giving a 6pts return for 2pts bet vs a 3pts return for a 1/2 winner. Plus every so often you get the win bonus.
Good luck backing odds on favs to make money

[dannycraigpirates]

Give me a 25/1 shot that places @ 25/1, giving a 6pts return for 2pts bet vs a 3pts return for a 1/2 winner. Plus every so often you get the win bonus.
Good luck backing odds on favs to make money

If the 1/2 shot should be 1/6, I’ll back it all day long

[Nortons who]

Part of the problem for me is that Appreciate It just hasn't looked as spectacular or as quick as I would expect from the clear favourite for the Supreme. Maybe he's deceptively good or even exceptional but I still have a nagging feeling that something speedier on the day might go past him up the hill. Converlsey I keep scouring the entries and can't see which horse could realistically do that, unless someone really pulls a rabbit out of the hat (Fly Smart for example).

In truth, I'm a bit disappointed because the first race of the Festival doesn't currently appear to have much hype or excitement about the race itself, other than of course the tradional roar which no doubt we shall all be doing from home instead this year, scaring the cat or dog in the process. Actually, I'm almost at the point now where I just want to fast forward to the Arkle.

[Kevloaf]

Give me a 25/1 shot that places @ 25/1, giving a 6pts return for 2pts bet vs a 3pts return for a 1/2 winner. Plus every so often you get the win bonus.
Good luck backing odds on favs to make money

Can you pick 25/1 winners (as in hitting the frame) that place more often than 1/2 winners that win, consistently?

Good luck yourself!


Not sure your last line was needed.... personal preference isn't it... they're both valid.

[Kevloaf]

Part of the problem for me is that Appreciate It just hasn't looked as spectacular or as quick as I would expect from the clear favourite for the Supreme. Maybe he's deceptively good or even exceptional but I still have a nagging feeling that something speedier on the day might go past him up the hill. Converlsey I keep scouring the entries and can't see which horse could realistically do that, unless someone really pulls a rabbit out of the hat (Fly Smart for example).

In truth, I'm a bit disappointed because the first race of the Festival doesn't currently appear to have much hype or excitement about the race itself, other than of course the tradional roar which no doubt we shall all be doing from home instead this year, scaring the cat or dog in the process. Actually, I'm almost at the point now where I just want to fast forward to the Arkle.

I personally don't see how you come to that opinion?

He has looked spectacular twice in terms of showing 'quickness'. Once in a bumper, and in the Grade 1 hurdle at Christmas.



Let's say Ferny Hollow (the 25/1 rag) didn't pick up Appreciate It, he'd be one of the most exciting Supreme favs in years? Asterion Forlonge went off fav last year FFS!

I don't think he lost anything in defeat in the bumper, he's improved for hurdles, he's trained by Willie, he's a future chaser and he's a potential star.

Fast forwarding the Supreme, jesus. We only have 28 races that we wait for and talk about for 12 months and you want to just give the first one away?

[Lobos]

Everyone would love the Festival to get off to a great start for the punters wouldn't they ? The 11/4 about Appreciate It is still value looking at what he doesn't have to beat. Win next weekend and he goes very short. Hopefully everyone will be on him for the curtain raiser and that'll set us up for a monumental week.

[Appreciate It]

I have ended up in the rather uncomfortable position where my entire week is now built around the first race of the said week. It wasn't meant to be this way, I assure you. I had Shishkin and Envoi Allen in big singles and doubles placed back in March and Epatante to be my biggest winner ever. But then the Mrs decided she wanted to buy a house, and in order to get a deposit together, I've had to cash out all of my sexiest looking Cheltenham bets. Fucking women!

Appreciate It, however, I could not bring myself to cash out. Admittedly, the cash out offer was decidedly less than the others I've mentioned above, but even so, I think he's the absolute banker of the week. 11/4 represents truly incredible value in my opinion. I am not, for one second, saying that over 2m he is good as Vautour, Douvan or maybe not even Champagne Fever. But the point is, he won't have to be. Over Christmas he absolutely murdered the best of the Irish and it's not like it was a massive surprise. In spite of the popular consensus being that he'd be better over further (I agree), he was still sent off favourite to beat the horse who, at the time, headed the betting for the Supreme. Appreciate It is just a bloody good horse and he's running in a race where there are no other bloody good horses.

The year Vautour won the Supreme, Faugheen won the Ballymore. I strongly suspect that you could have swapped them, and they still both would have won their respective races. They were just too good. Appreciate It is exactly the same. He's just going to be too good. Assuming the 4 year olds don't rock up, he'll have beaten everything that's under 20/1 in the market besides The Blue Lord and Metier. Metier is second favourite by virtue of winning the Tolworth. In reality, that Tolworth was a Grade 3 handicap where he didn't have to give weight away. If you give the race a different name, he's 20/1. Of those that have run this season, to my mind, The Blue Lord is the biggest threat. He certainly has an engine. But just looking at the way he's been campaigned, Willie appears keen to make him a Ballymore horse.

Unless something comes out in the next few weeks and delivers a staggering debut performance, this is Appreciate It's to lose. 11/4 is still a fantastic price in my book. I almost hope the house sale purchase falls through so I can put the deposit on him!

[Nortons who]

I personally don't see how you come to that opinion?

He has looked spectacular twice in terms of showing 'quickness'. Once in a bumper, and in the Grade 1 hurdle at Christmas.



Let's say Ferny Hollow (the 25/1 rag) didn't pick up Appreciate It, he'd be one of the most exciting Supreme favs in years? Asterion Forlonge went off fav last year FFS!

I don't think he lost anything in defeat in the bumper, he's improved for hurdles, he's trained by Willie, he's a future chaser and he's a potential star.

Fast forwarding the Supreme, jesus. We only have 28 races that we wait for and talk about for 12 months and you want to just give the first one away?

But that's the point right there in your own fair hand. He was picked off by FH going up the hill and on that basis he hasn't looked invincible IMO, in comparison with some of Willie's greats. Yes he's a future chaser and Patrick quoted way back they can't wait to see him over 3 miles, which is partly why so many of us latched on to the Ballymore or Albert Bartlett route, never thinking he'd go here because Ferny Hollow was always regarded as the speed merchant.

So please don't tell me the plan has always been the Supreme for AI from the start of the season because I'm just not buying that.