Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[isitmarchyet]

If one of Mullins horses or Gordon's would have won the Moscow Flyer like Dreal Deal did today I wonder how many on here would be bigging it up for the Supreme/Ballymore. Not a sound for the winner because of the trainer. Shouldn't work that way should it ??

Did have the same thought, but then, rightly or wrongly, I suppose people will get more excited if a horse is trained by one of the big guns because of their proven record at winning the big ones. He definitely deserves respect though for sure.

[Ray]

Did have the same thought, but then, rightly or wrongly, I suppose people will get more excited if a horse is trained by one of the big guns because of their proven record at winning the big ones. He definitely deserves respect though for sure.

haha yeah, lets all have a pause for a moment about dreal deal........
now back to reality

[Lobos]

haha yeah, lets all have a pause for a moment about dreal deal........
now back to reality

Thanks Ray, you've just proved my point. That's exactly what I mean... right there. If he were trained by Mullins or Gordon people would have him in their book by now. We are a fickle bunch .

[jack1092]

Thanks Ray, you've just proved my point. That's exactly what I mean... right there. If he were trained by Mullins or Gordon people would have him in their book by now. We are a fickle bunch .

Same happened in mares novice thread with that Manipark Aa or whatever was beat, and the Sweeney horse won the race after.... not a mention. Happens that way I guess!

[TigerRolllllll]

Not convinced re Dreal Deal or anything in that race

Ratings not everything, expecisllt re Novices, but they are at least indicative

Winner got a RPR of 142, which is not enough to put him in picture.....and they kind of finished in a heap

Maybe some worth looking at for handicaps tho

Would still be interested in Master Macshee as outsider option - already run to 147 and still unexposed

[jack1092]

Re Master Mcshee: was thinking about him earlier- he's 16/1 for the 2mile novice at DRF. Presumably he's heading there next, and obviously it'll be very tough for him to beat AI but in front of him in the market is:

Ballyadam- probably runs
Blue Lord- not sure?
Bob- Nah.
Irascible- yeah.
keskonrisk- guess so
Cask Mate- Yeah but exposed
Ganapathi- nah
Gaillard Du Mesnil- likelier for 2M6?

I'd say he'll be half the price he is now.

[TigerRolllllll]

Re Master Mcshee: was thinking about him earlier- he's 16/1 for the 2mile novice at DRF. Presumably he's heading there next, and obviously it'll be very tough for him to beat AI but in front of him in the market is:

Ballyadam- probably runs
Blue Lord- not sure?
Bob- Nah.
Irascible- yeah.
keskonrisk- guess so
Cask Mate- Yeah but exposed
Ganapathi- nah
Gaillard Du Mesnil- likelier for 2M6?

I'd say he'll be half the price he is now.

Might not go there ....price suggests poss not

Could be chaos if Ballyadam reverses form

[somer1]

Re Master Mcshee: was thinking about him earlier- he's 16/1 for the 2mile novice at DRF. Presumably he's heading there next, and obviously it'll be very tough for him to beat AI but in front of him in the market is:

Ballyadam- probably runs
Blue Lord- not sure?
Bob- Nah.
Irascible- yeah.
keskonrisk- guess so
Cask Mate- Yeah but exposed
Ganapathi- nah
Gaillard Du Mesnil- likelier for 2M6?

I'd say he'll be half the price he is now.

Im thinking Irascible going County but could be wrong.

[jack1092]

Im thinking Irascible going County but could be wrong.

Henry said the grade 1 at DRF was his next race, possibly he’ll run a race to obtain a nice mark..

[Kevloaf]

I'm amazed people think Irascible is going to win a handicap at 2m.

I feel it's so blatent that he's going to improve over further than I'd actually lay him in the County.



That's a lie, I'm not going to lay a 1/20

[SharpHat]

Not sure if already mentioned but capodanno runs over 2 miles on Tuesday, maybe still a glimmer of hope for this

[Nortons who]

Not sure if already mentioned but capodanno runs over 2 miles on Tuesday, maybe still a glimmer of hope for this

If he wins it will be very interesting to see what they decide to do. JP likes to have a decent one in the Supreme so I guess that would be a factor but a few of us on here have mulled over whether he could either coincidentally or by design be treading a similar path to Saint Roi which leads to the County Hurdle. Personally I would prefer the latter since IMO Appreciate It seems fairly solid for the Supreme from those we have seen run to date.

As you suggest, let's see what happens on Tuesday.

[Dandrew99]

Will he have a handicap mark after the run or will he have to run again? I can never remember if the run in France count as one of his three.

Regardless it's probably pretty unlikely he gets a mark in the mid 130s to get into the county right? He would likely have to win twice before March to get in.

It's pretty interesting that he kept being entered over 2m3f and being pulled out, and now he is being entered over 2m. Could mean absolutely nothing of course, but is it possible that the plan was to keep his mark favourable over a further distance, but now time is running out the handbrake will be taken off? 100% pocket talking there but I like to cling onto any hope

[jack1092]

Will he have a handicap mark after the run or will he have to run again? I can never remember if the run in France count as one of his three.

Regardless it's probably pretty unlikely he gets a mark in the mid 130s to get into the county right? He would likely have to win twice before March to get in.

It's pretty interesting that he kept being entered over 2m3f and being pulled out, and now he is being entered over 2m. Could mean absolutely nothing of course, but is it possible that the plan was to keep his mark favourable over a further distance, but now time is running out the handbrake will be taken off? 100% pocket talking there but I like to cling onto any hope

It does count and Saint Roi was in a similar situation having lost on debut, and he made it in with a UK mark of 137.

He lost by 23ls on debut + then won by 9ls getting 10Ibs. So, it's very possible he'd make it in if he won well enough.

[Nortons who]

Will he have a handicap mark after the run or will he have to run again? I can never remember if the run in France count as one of his three.

Regardless it's probably pretty unlikely he gets a mark in the mid 130s to get into the county right? He would likely have to win twice before March to get in.

It's pretty interesting that he kept being entered over 2m3f and being pulled out, and now he is being entered over 2m. Could mean absolutely nothing of course, but is it possible that the plan was to keep his mark favourable over a further distance, but now time is running out the handbrake will be taken off? 100% pocket talking there but I like to cling onto any hope

My understanding is that the Capodanno situation is the same as Saint Roi last year. Yes the run in France counts, so the run tomorrow would be the third required run to get into the County. You are correct about needing to run well enough tomorrow to get a sufficiently high enough mark. When Saint Roi won last year at Tramore he received 137.

So if he wins and wins well tomorrow, both options are presumably open to connections to decide.