Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Morley Street]

I'm a little surprised people are looking to find something to beat Appreciate It.

The only horse we've ever seen do him for speed is out injured and vibes are they thought Appreciate It was a better horse going in to that race and it was a shock he was beaten.

I've been of the opinion (and feel it's vindicated) that he'd improve even more over hurdles. I believe he'd have beaten Ferny Hollow this season over any distance.

He's the most solid Supreme favourite since Douvan. The main challenger is Metier and then it's 16/1 Ballyadam 3rd fav, who he's soundly walloped last time.

There are no chinks in his armour for me and talk of him getting done for speed is moot for me, as they know more about him now. They can make all if they wanted to, nothing is coming past him. I think they'll just be handy though.



I still think he'd be even more impressive in the Ballymore though.

I don’t disagree with everything that you are saying here Kev although I do feel that Metier will give him some sort of race.

if he goes on to win the Supreme Douvan / Vautour style what would you see as his 2022 target?

[Kevloaf]

Yeah, I've given up trying to get him beat, I'm now looking for place value tbh. Horses I think have the possibility to shorten, that could hit the frame, or give me an alternative should something happen to Appreciate It either before the festival or during the race (as uncommon as these things are I like to take them into account).

I don't think he's in Douvan's league myself, although he is probably likely as good, if not slightly better, than the 2nd to Douvan in the Supreme, Shaneshill. Hopefully he goes the same route as Shaneshill too, and ends up in the RSA the following season!

To think at the beginning of the season I thought he could be one for the Bartlett Then again, I thought Willie would have a better selections of novice hurdlers to choose from also! Glad I cashed out Ballymore some time back and went down the any race route

Yeah, the Douvan point I'm making isn't that I think he'll end up better than Douvan, it's just at this point he's as solid a favourite that we've had since then.
Min had Altior to beat as fav (and didn't) - a more than creditable rival.
Melon and Ballyandy were joint favs (both with questions to answer going in)
Getabird was a terrible fav.
Fakir D'Oudaries and Al Dancer went off 9/2J (so no solid fav)
Asterion Forlonge wasn't a solid fav either.


So Appreciate It probably gets this "most solid since Douvan" tag from me because at the moment, I can only see 3 really likely winners, one of them is Ballyadam who he's soundly beaten and the other might be good but you couldn't bank on it.

I don’t disagree with everything that you are saying here Kev although I do feel that Metier will give him some sort of race.

if he goes on to win the Supreme Douvan / Vautour style what would you see as his 2022 target?

Yeah he might, it's just so weak beyond that at the moment that I feel comfortable saying Appreciate It will be in the mix at the end, and can't think of anything else.



Not a clue on the target now, I actually backed him at 50/1 for the RSA a while back which I thought would have been a shoe-in given what they've said...but if he wins a Supreme, he's going to be Arkle fav.... so maybe there.... the only reason Vautour didn't go for the Arkle was they had Un De Sceaux, who I think we all knew was Grade 1 class... so yeah, no idea....

He'll need to improve as a chaser to stay ahead of the pack though, his age/experience so far in my opinion is a posititve to his chances this season, and others may catch up next.

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah, the Douvan point I'm making isn't that I think he'll end up better than Douvan, it's just at this point he's as solid a favourite that we've had since then.
Min had Altior to beat as fav (and didn't) - a more than creditable rival.
Melon and Ballyandy were joint favs (both with questions to answer going in)
Getabird was a terrible fav.
Fakir D'Oudaries and Al Dancer went off 9/2J (so no solid fav)
Asterion Forlonge wasn't a solid fav either.


So Appreciate It probably gets this "most solid since Douvan" tag from me because at the moment, I can only see 3 really likely winners, one of them is Ballyadam who he's soundly beaten and the other might be good but you couldn't bank on it.

Valid points birthday boy

[Green Goddess]

Quick question to those on here that are far more knowledgeable than me....

I know some people don't worry much about the ground. But what if we have a dry start to March and ground is Good to Soft (watered). Would that change your views on any near the top of the market?

[FinalFurlong91]

The better the ground the more likely appreciate it runs in the ballymore youd think

[ToniC]

Unless it’s proper bottomless which is unlikely or like a road which is impossible because as you say they’ll water, I wouldn’t worry about it too much, I used to give it much more thought than I do now, there aren’t too many horses that are dependent on extremes in ground and I’d generally look to avoid those anyway.

even if it’s a dry month, it will likely ride the soft side of good to soft due to watering on the first day especially.

[Kevloaf]

Quick question to those on here that are far more knowledgeable than me....

I know some people don't worry much about the ground. But what if we have a dry start to March and ground is Good to Soft (watered). Would that change your views on any near the top of the market?

It's a good question, although my answer is a bit boring, in that I don't think it'd affect that much. I haven't backed any horses that need 'heavy' and haven't backed any that would struggle on soft.

We haven't really got any good -to-soft ground form to go on either so I wouldn't get too hung up on it.


I'm in the camp that think good horses (grade 1 types) will be effective on most types of ground.... and handicaps I'll be doing a lot closer to the time...

[Istabraq]

Green Goddess

Most top horses go on most grounds, it starts to change when you get extreme's.
There's no way they'll ever produce good ground for the festivals first race so your only extreme is deep ground, which we've had 2/3 times in recent years, and it's fair to say the majority of G1 NH horses would prefer cut to quick ground...

[robith]

It's a good question, although my answer is a bit boring, in that I don't think it'd affect that much. I haven't backed any horses that need 'heavy' and haven't backed any that would struggle on soft.

We haven't really got any good -to-soft ground form to go on either so I wouldn't get too hung up on it.


I'm in the camp that think good horses (grade 1 types) will be effective on most types of ground.... and handicaps I'll be doing a lot closer to the time...

I recall in 2018 we had huge snow before the fest and the ground seemed to be atrocious. I was one of many on here gnashing my teeth thinking my ante post was ruined, but if you go and look back at the results now, tons of the big short priced guys a lot of the forum had covered (Samcro, Footpad, Laurina, Altior) did their jobs, the ones that got beat (Apple's Jade, Cause of Causes) didn't get beat cos the ground. And the couple results you could point to where the result was cos the horse got its conditions (Native River, Summerville Boy) they were certainly found in the market but there was juice enough in their prices still.

So I'd agree with the Kev, with the addition if there is a mudlark who'll love it, we'll have plenty of time to spot them and get a good price

[Istabraq]

robith
2018 the ground was bad for weeks before raceweek but it was actually OK until the Monday when, from about 4pm, it hammered down right through to the Tuesday morning.
But the point remains the vast majority of NH horses would prefer soft to quick ground...

[isitmarchyet]

Magic Tricks, Ganapathi, Echoes in Rain, Power of Pause, Fire Attack amongst Moscow Flyer entries.

https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2021_ONOR010.PDF?id=1&v=20210112123836

[darlojim]

Does anyone have notes of what horses Mullins has ran in the Moscow flyer in the past without me having to go through and look (at work)

[Saxon Warrior]

Does anyone have notes of what horses Mullins has ran in the Moscow flyer in the past without me having to go through and look (at work)

2020 - No Runners
2019 - Harrie 3rd, Buildmeupbuttercup 5th
2018 - Getabird 1st, Carter McKay 3rd, Makitorix 6th/last
2017 - Crack Mome - 2nd
2016 - Min 1st
2015 - Douvan - 1st
2014 - Vautour - 1st
2013 - Mozoltov - 1st

[ComplyOrDie]

Magic Tricks, Ganapathi, Echoes in Rain, Power of Pause, Fire Attack amongst Moscow Flyer entries.
https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Mi...20210112123836

Really please to see the Magic Tricks entry. Hopefully he is declared.

Gordon has won the last two renewals, before that it was almost a race Willie used to send his good RR horses, the likes of Vautour, Douvan & Min.

[DeeBee]

Magic Tricks, Ganapathi, Echoes in Rain, Power of Pause, Fire Attack amongst Moscow Flyer entries.
https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Mi...20210112123836

Anyone like to guess the top 2 in the betting for this?