Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Faugheen_Machine]

What a great race it looks too be now the AI is running. I could see this market being turned on its head.

Anyone covering Appreciate It for the Supreme?

[charlie]

Interesting to see Willie persisting over with 2m with N'golo.

[Craigy14]

Capodanno at Limerick in 2m maiden as well on 27th.

[Lobos]

What a great race it looks too be now the AI is running. I could see this market being turned on its head.

Anyone covering Appreciate It for the Supreme?

Don't think he's got the pace to win a Ballymore so it's a no from me.

[Quevega]

What a great race it looks too be now the AI is running. I could see this market being turned on its head.

Anyone covering Appreciate It for the Supreme?

yep, took 19's on betfair this morning

[Big Bucks]

Micro manage declared over 2m

[jack1092]

Don't think he's got the pace to win a Ballymore so it's a no from me.

Not got the pace to win a Ballymore even? Interesting.

[jack1092]

Micro manage declared over 2m

El Barra in the other maiden too- 6 yo but could be anything. M C Muldoon too.

[Kevloaf]

What a great race it looks too be now the AI is running. I could see this market being turned on its head.

Anyone covering Appreciate It for the Supreme?

I haven't.... but Champagne Fever.....

(Well, I have backed him any race so I suppose partly I have)



For me though, Appreciate It is best suited to the Ballymore, so even if he wins this over 2, that's still the race that'd suit him best. Similar to Envoi Allen last season.

[Ray]

What happens if he gets tucked at 2 miles, does the stats mean he cant possibly win a ballymore

[Eggs]

...Hills have Ai to win Future Champions/Supreme @ 14-1 & Future Champions/Ballymore @ 10-1. Not much value considering Sky still offer 16-1 AI for the Supreme.

[Kevloaf]

What happens if he gets tucked at 2 miles, does the stats mean he cant possibly win a ballymore

Not sure anyone has done stats on it that are easy to find.


Whatever they were I'd ignore them though

[Saxon Warrior]

There will be some stonking good novices looking at handicap routes after this 4-Days of Festivals, and the plethora of Grade 1 events.

Keep an eye out for those with a profile and handicap mark to potentially exploit.

[Kevloaf]

Micro Manage - odds on for the 12:00 at Leop to kick off Christmas.

Just looking at Mullins' runners in that race.


2011 - Midnight Game 11/10 (1st) - 15th in Cinder's and Ashes' Supreme at 18/1 (My first ever live festival race )
2012 - Urano (2nd) 8/5 - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2013 - Daneking 5/2 (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2014 - Alvisio Ville 1/2 (1st) - 7th in Douvan's Supreme at 20/1
2015 - Beau Mome 7/4 (4th) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2016 - Bunk Off Early 7/4 - (1st) - 12th in Labaik's Supreme at 12/1
2017 - Antey 8/1 - (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2018 - Klassical Dream 5/2 (1st) - 1st in Supreme at 6/1
2019 - Fils Spiritual 3/1 (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham



So what does that tell us?

• He's never had more than 1 runner in this race.
• Won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• 8 of the 9 finished top 3
• 100% of the winners went on to run in the Supreme.
• If the horses don't win, they won't be going to the festival
• Only Klassical Dream was the shortest priced runner for Mullins in the Supreme

Given the profile, we can assume Willie is checking to see he's good enough to go...and we can assume, if he wins, it'll be the Supreme, given that in almost 10 years, he's only sent winners, and they've all ended up in the same race.

However, bar Klassical Dream, he's had more fancied runners, so is this where he sends his best novice? Probably not... Klassical Dream won this nicely, then had another race where he just touched off Aramon. There was a bit of uncertainty about where he'd run too and he wasn't the most popular Mullins runner, he didn't go off favourite although was single figures.

I've updated my diary with what I've done, but best place to discuss him is this thread.

[Rhinestone_Cowboy]

Micro Manage - odds on for the 12:00 at Leop to kick off Christmas.

Just looking at Mullins' runners in that race.


2011 - Midnight Game 11/10 (1st) - 15th in Cinder's and Ashes' Supreme at 18/1 (My first ever live festival race )
2012 - Urano (2nd) 8/5 - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2013 - Daneking 5/2 (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2014 - Alvisio Ville 1/2 (1st) - 7th in Douvan's Supreme at 20/1
2015 - Beau Mome 7/4 (4th) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2016 - Bunk Off Early 7/4 - (1st) - 12th in Labaik's Supreme at 12/1
2017 - Antey 8/1 - (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham
2018 - Klassical Dream 5/2 (1st) - 1st in Supreme at 6/1
2019 - Fils Spiritual 3/1 (3rd) - Didn't run at Cheltenham



So what does that tell us?

• He's never had more than 1 runner in this race.
• Won 4 of the last 9 runnings
• 8 of the 9 finished top 3
• 100% of the winners went on to run in the Supreme.
• If the horses don't win, they won't be going to the festival
• Only Klassical Dream was the shortest priced runner for Mullins in the Supreme

Given the profile, we can assume Willie is checking to see he's good enough to go...and we can assume, if he wins, it'll be the Supreme, given that in almost 10 years, he's only sent winners, and they've all ended up in the same race.

However, bar Klassical Dream, he's had more fancied runners, so is this where he sends his best novice? Probably not... Klassical Dream won this nicely, then had another race where he just touched off Aramon. There was a bit of uncertainty about where he'd run too and he wasn't the most popular Mullins runner, he didn't go off favourite although was single figures.

I've updated my diary with what I've done, but best place to discuss him is this thread.

Top analysis Kev, based on that he is a 1/2 stakes win only bet for me with 365 to be cashed if he doesn’t win on Boxing Day