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**Istabraq** · 13 October 2020, 09:07 PM

Great idea Jon.
Can you edit the post to include main challengers and todays prices please

**ComplyOrDie** · 13 October 2020, 09:08 PM

I'd say it would be dangerous to not include up and coming trainers as potentials also, the likes of Olly Murphy who hasn't had many Supreme runners but has finished 2nd and 3rd (in the same year) and someone like Joseph O'Brien (managed to get a 4 year old to finish 4th a couple of years back) who I think would have no issue getting one ready for a Supreme.

A lot of it comes down to the ammunition the top three trainers you mention get. It will be hard for many to compete but I don't think it's a forgone conclusion with some of the younger trainers coming through the ranks. Certainly potential banana skins.

Forgot to say, nice work getting this thread up and running though, and useful info as always

**opatcho** · 13 October 2020, 09:09 PM

Superb work!

I mean, is there much else to say. It's FatJockey... cue the 150+ pages

**Kevloaf** · 13 October 2020, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by jono View Post

Figured we should start having individual threads for most races now? Being October and some nice horses starting to appear...(come on Kev pull your finger out

)

Week commencing 26th October.

Excellent post, will definitely be something to have to bear in mind and come back to... as 'muggy' as it might appear, the stats are quite eye-opening.

**jono** · 13 October 2020, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

I'd say it would be dangerous to not include up and coming trainers as potentials also, the likes of Olly Murphy who hasn't had many Supreme runners but has finished 2nd and 3rd (in the same year) and someone like Joseph O'Brien (managed to get a 4 year old to finish 4th a couple of years back) who I think would have no issue getting one ready for a Supreme.

A lot of it comes down to the ammunition the top three trainers you mention get. It will be hard for many to compete but I don't think it's a forgone conclusion with some of the younger trainers coming through the ranks. Certainly potential banana skins.

Yeah, if you cut the sample size down to just the last 3 most recent runnings, then you have a different outlook. So you could argue 'this' stranglehold isn't quite as strong now as it was. But for me i'll still be assuming that the race is very likely to end up between the 3, unless either A) a superstar looks to be emerging trained elsewhere or B) it's a rare year where none of them seem to have a particularly strong set of horses for the race.

I just tend to find at this time of year, you'll get plenty of stable tours with bullish comments thrown around by trainers/owners. Follow them with a maiden hurdle win and it's easy to get drawn into many a horse (which I myself have done - I remember being very keen on Seddon for example last year after his hurdles debut) But generally, by March it's very different story.

Absolutely the danger is to be lazy and completely discount anyone else. And obviously you back those 3 and you'll get winners at the festival, year after year - groundbreaking stuff.

The sheer level of success overall was the surprising aspect. And the fact that it's the horse that goes into the race as the shortest and most likely winner means although they have numbers on their side, it's certainly not a case of throwing several darts at the race and hoping for the best.

**OverTheLast** · 13 October 2020, 10:06 PM

Any of the 'trends' guys have any idea where/when Ferny Hollow will start? Where does Willie usually start his better ones?

**charlie** · 13 October 2020, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by OverTheLast View Post

Any of the 'trends' guys have any idea where/when Ferny Hollow will start? Where does Willie usually start his better ones?

Not too sure about where but almost all Willies supreme winners start in December.

**ComplyOrDie** · 13 October 2020, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by jono View Post

Yeah, if you cut the sample size down to just the last 3 most recent runnings, then you have a different outlook. So you could argue 'this' stranglehold isn't quite as strong now as it was. But for me i'll still be assuming that the race is very likely to end up between the 3, unless either A) a superstar looks to be emerging trained elsewhere or B) it's a rare year where none of them seem to have a particularly strong set of horses for the race.

I just tend to find at this time of year, you'll get plenty of stable tours with bullish comments thrown around by trainers/owners. Follow them with a maiden hurdle win and it's easy to get drawn into many a horse (which I myself have done - I remember being very keen on Seddon for example last year after his hurdles debut) But generally, by March it's very different story.

Absolutely the danger is to be lazy and completely discount anyone else. And obviously you back those 3 and you'll get winners at the festival, year after year - groundbreaking stuff.

The sheer level of success overall was the surprising aspect. And the fact that it's the horse that goes into the race as the shortest and most likely winner means although they have numbers on their side, it's certainly not a case of throwing several darts at the race and hoping for the best.

I usually start with WPM & Hendo, myself, so completely agree about focusing on them two for this race, for sure.

At some point I think there will be a shift, or a break in this pattern as some of the younger well connected trainers start getting some better animals in their yards.

**Kevloaf** · 13 October 2020, 10:22 PM

Originally posted by ComplyOrDie View Post

I usually start with WPM & Hendo, myself, so completely agree about focusing on them two for this race, for sure.

At some point I think there will be a shift, or a break in this pattern as some of the younger well connected trainers start getting some better animals in their yards.

Let's not forget, Jono wrote Willie Mullins off a few years ago

**Nortons who** · 13 October 2020, 10:35 PM

One problem we have this season is that by now Scooby has usually provided us with the name of the winner! He has though in his blog poured some cold water on whether Flinteur Sacre can live up to his pedigree, so it will be interesting to see how that turns out as already pointed out FS is currently NH's number 1 in the betting.

Personally I'm still keen on Ferny Hollow, having stuck with him throughout his Bumper escapades last season. Whether the form of the Cheltenham bumper proves to be any good is currently open to question but he landed my money in the end, so Im hoping he will progress over hurdles and excell in this race.

Uhtred would be my next shout at this stage based on paperwork alone, until we see the leading fancies actually run.

**Kevloaf** · 13 October 2020, 10:40 PM

Originally posted by Nortons who View Post

One problem we have this season is that by now Scooby has usually provided us with the name of the winner! He has though in his blog poured some cold water on whether Flinteur Sacre can live up to his pedigree, so it will be interesting to see how that turns out as already pointed out FS is currently NH's number 1 in the betting.

Personally I'm still keen on Ferny Hollow, having stuck with him throughout his Bumper escapades last season. Whether the form of the Cheltenham bumper proves to be any good is currently open to question but he landed my money in the end, so Im hoping he will progress over hurdles and excell in this race.

Uhtred would be my next shout at this stage based on paperwork alone, until we see the leading fancies actually run.

Didn't he put up Fly Smart last year?

He did Klassical Dream a year too early too.... maybe lightning will strike twice

**jono** · 13 October 2020, 10:46 PM

Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

Let's not forget, Jono wrote Willie Mullins off a few years ago

Ruby knew. He got out whilst he could #sinkingship

**ComplyOrDie** · 13 October 2020, 10:47 PM

Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post

Didn't he put up Fly Smart last year?

He did Klassical Dream a year too early too.... maybe lightning will strike twice

I think there is a big chance it could

Unless Henderson has one hidden away

**Lobos** · 13 October 2020, 11:01 PM

Just totted it up...out of the 58 singles I've done, 33 of them are either Mullins, Gord or Hendo. Mental.

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