Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Saxon Warrior]

I'd be devastated and surprised if Metier is good enough to beat Appreciate It. That would be one hell of savage start to the week for me if he is!!!

I’m the reverse.

[Faugheen_Machine]

I'd be devastated and surprised if Metier is good enough to beat Appreciate It. That would be one hell of savage start to the week for me if he is!!!

I'm tempted to perm AI, Ballyadam and Lord Royal in combination tricasts - struggling to see the Brits splitting them.

[Kevloaf]

I'm tempted to perm AI, Ballyadam and Lord Royal in combination tricasts - struggling to see the Brits splitting them.

Appreciate It, Blue Lord, Ballyadam, Irascible?

If they finish 1-2-3-4 - I'm emailing the bookings asking them to settle the Prestbury Cup after race 1

[Istabraq]

I'm tempted to perm AI, Ballyadam and Lord Royal in combination tricasts - struggling to see the Brits splitting them.

No Blue Lord FM?
Think I’m going to hit this one on the place markets on Tuesday...

[Exar Essay]

I'm tempted to perm AI, Ballyadam and Lord Royal in combination tricasts - struggling to see the Brits splitting them.

Lord Royal might struggle to hit the top 3 if he started today

[Istabraq]

Lord Royal might struggle to hit the top 3 if he started today

Of course, it all makes sense now...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Lord Royal might struggle to hit the top 3 if he started today

Always get those two mixed up. At least he's running on Tuesday

[robith]

This being only 8 runners has really messed up my plans for this race, and I wouldn’t mind any suggestions of what I may do here. My 2 main darts are AI (1pt at 28/1) and ballyadam (2 points at an avg 16/1). I’ve covered Blue Lord with one point, with help from the sky money back offer, and my good lady has let me use her sky account for which I’ve had 0.5 points on irascible - the only credible threat of the 3 outsiders IMO.

The 2 that could end up ruining my day are metier & soaring glory (hate to be that guy but soaring glory bypassing race as suggest would have saved me a headache!!). I wasn’t realistically expecting a field that would have warranted any firms going 7 places but was hoping we might have gotten 5, the good thing about those offers was half the field were usually rags that you could discount from your calculations but you still got the benefit of them making up the numbers.

3 places doesn’t hugely appeal, especially sub-5/1, to cover the pair of metier & SG. I’d have been happy enough to do one. I’m considering just having a straight win stake on both, staking accordingly so I’d break even on the race should either win. But I think I may wait for the day & see if appreciate it is shorter, I could lay him for a chunk to get the same result (though it would eat into my potential profit for him winning more) but it does open up the bonus scenario of ballyadam, blue lord or irascible beating him. Decisions...

Personally, in my opinion what you've got is fine? Personally I don't think Metier and Soaring Glory are of a level that can beat the Irish form. But I'm happy to be wrong, depends on how happy your strategy allows you to be

[Istabraq]

Personally, in my opinion what you've got is fine? Personally I don't think Metier and Soaring Glory are of a level that can beat the Irish form. But I'm happy to be wrong, depends on how happy your strategy allows you to be

Yeah I’m struggling to find any love for Soaring Glory, been a long time since the Betfair Hurdle winner doubled up here and winning that off 133 to a Supreme is a big step....

[ComplyOrDie]

Yeah I’m struggling to find any love for Soaring Glory, been a long time since the Betfair Hurdle winner doubled up here and winning that off 133 to a Supreme is a big step....

Yep I agree. He's one I won't be covering at all.

[ToniC]

Personally, in my opinion what you've got is fine? Personally I don't think Metier and Soaring Glory are of a level that can beat the Irish form. But I'm happy to be wrong, depends on how happy your strategy allows you to be

Me either, being honest. As things are right now, I stand to profit 23 points from an AI win, and 27 from ballyadam. I’d be after a ~6.5 point loss on the race should anything other than those two, or blue lord or irascible win. I think for the sake of 3 points, which would take my most likely outcome (appreciate it win) to a nice round for fire of 20 points, I’ll back metier win (1.5 points) & SG each way (0.75pt).

Im sure I will be fine, but I’ve been wrong before, and sacrificing 3 points (only just over 1 were SG to place) to ensure my worst result (bar one of the other 2 outsiders winning)is a break even seems like it might be sensible?

[ToniC]

One thing I deffo won’t be doing however Is pulling the trigger on any of it until the Tuesday morning. Still time for non runners & it would only take one to end up with 2 places on the e/w

[opatcho]

Yeah I’m struggling to find any love for Soaring Glory, been a long time since the Betfair Hurdle winner doubled up here and winning that off 133 to a Supreme is a big step....

Good horse, and I expect him to enjoy the going. However, I'd be shock if a 133 winner of the betfair hurdle won this, and I'm backing him at 6/1 - 7/1 to find out! Fook that

[Istabraq]

Good horse, and I expect him to enjoy the going. However, I'd be shock if a 133 winner of the betfair hurdle won this, and I'm backing him at 6/1 - 7/1 to find out! Fook that

He’s kept some good company but comes here one of the more exposed horses, I think this will be his 6th hurdle race.
I could get the case for an unexposed 133 horse who had the handbrake on for a Betfair hurdle mark and is clearly better than that, not sure SG falls into that category but there’s plenty of judges like his chances so I could easily be wrong...

[Pendil]

Outside Appreciate It (162) and Metier (160) there is only 3l difference between the other 6 runners on adjusted RPRs. Grumpy Charley is on the same OR as Soaring Glory and it could be argued that beating a 9lb well in runner up comfortably last time he could be under rated at OR 143. Come on Grumpy