Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Very good point! I was just saying it’s better to be selective with them rather than mass backing all horses that appear nrnb value

There aren't really 'mass' numbers of horses it applies to though are there?


It's horses you know 100% would be much shorter if they ran, because they're priced NRNB as if they won't run..... they price them like that so they get your money in their account for a bit.

I'm okay with that, for the odd time they get it wrong or there will be a 'mad' switch.


It's not like backing Irascible at 25/1 NRNB now... if declared, he might be 25/1 on the day....

Bob Olinger, if declared, wouldn't be 14/1 or 12/1 when he was put up (or even 5/1 now) - he'd be 5/2 or thereabouts because AI wouldn't be running (that's the logic anyway).



Bob Olinger, Concertista, Min, Champ are ones that stood out to me, none of them will end up where they shouldn't..... if anything these bets look more like "mug" bets, than the mug bets people put on, on purpose, to keep their accounts.... which I'm not getting into a discussion about at the moment

[Quevega]

There aren't really 'mass' numbers of horses it applies to though are there?


It's horses you know 100% would be much shorter if they ran, because they're priced NRNB as if they won't run..... they price them like that so they get your money in their account for a bit.

I'm okay with that, for the odd time they get it wrong or there will be a 'mad' switch.


It's not like backing Irascible at 25/1 NRNB now... if declared, he might be 25/1 on the day....

Bob Olinger, if declared, wouldn't be 14/1 or 12/1 when he was put up (or even 5/1 now) - he'd be 5/2 or thereabouts because AI wouldn't be running (that's the logic anyway).



Bob Olinger, Concertista, Min, Champ are ones that stood out to me, none of them will end up where they shouldn't..... if anything these bets look more like "mug" bets, than the mug bets people put on, on purpose, to keep their accounts.... which I'm not getting into a discussion about at the moment

Yep, they could be perceived as muggy and placed by someone not in the know.
This depends on how new the account is, how much is placed etc etc etc.

Don't get me wrong if you open an account and put down three figures or more on a bet like this, you're going to get noticed.
But again, that's the same with all new accounts in particular. They will be on red alert on these for sure.

[Lobos]

Blue Lord coming here according to connections

[Splinterboy82]

There aren't really 'mass' numbers of horses it applies to though are there?


It's horses you know 100% would be much shorter if they ran, because they're priced NRNB as if they won't run..... they price them like that so they get your money in their account for a bit.

I'm okay with that, for the odd time they get it wrong or there will be a 'mad' switch.


It's not like backing Irascible at 25/1 NRNB now... if declared, he might be 25/1 on the day....

Bob Olinger, if declared, wouldn't be 14/1 or 12/1 when he was put up (or even 5/1 now) - he'd be 5/2 or thereabouts because AI wouldn't be running (that's the logic anyway).



Bob Olinger, Concertista, Min, Champ are ones that stood out to me, none of them will end up where they shouldn't..... if anything these bets look more like "mug" bets, than the mug bets people put on, on purpose, to keep their accounts.... which I'm not getting into a discussion about at the moment

Totally agree with this. The other markets where I’ve used this angle this year is with Monkfish / LE in the Marsh / RSA....as if anything happened to EA there was all sorts of switch options. Permed singles & cross race doubles totalling expecting my stake back but on the basis I’d have massive value ‘if’ something happened.

Assuming most get cash out options (appreciate this is riskier & adds more red flags to accounts) it is also worth considering decent ew bets on 2nd favs to shorties too. Loads to go at this year & if favs (6-7 just off top of my head this year) are NRs (like last yrs CC) you’re in a great position as no R4 applied NRNB before final decs....

[Lbur4288]

Blue Lord coming here according to connections

Delighted with this. Will be more delighted after the 48 hour declarations.

[Lobos]

Delighted with this. Will be more delighted after the 48 hour declarations.

They think he's a top 5 horse in the race and didn't think he'd have enough experience for County Hurdle. Mullins wanted to run Concertista in last year's County but Bromley made him put her in Mares Novice Hurdle instead. Mullins isn't always right !

[opatcho]

I've taken the 12/1 on Blue Lord, expecting Bob O and Soaring Glory (last time I heard connections were against this) to come out, so expect he to go off at single figures

Out of Ballyadam, Metier and Blue Lord... Blue Lord could be the one thats open to improvement (lightly raced) and could potentially improve over better ground

[Hardy Eustace]

Do we know if Mc Muldoon is an intended runner here?

Am looking for something a bit whacky with my sky freebie

[Supermaster]

In the last 20 years only two winners have not been aged 5 or 6: Appreciate it is a 7-y-o
Mullins has won this 5 times in that period.
Successful English trainers in that period are: Henderson (2), George, McCain, Nicholls (2), Hobbs, Johnson. So Ireland 12 GB 8
And the thing is none of the GB trained horses are from those previously successful GB trainers. I find that gobsmacking since this is a division with so many horses
Have they all been put off by the favourite?

There's no doubt AI has the form credentials and has looked impressive when winning. It's always hard to compare the GB and Irish novices but the Irish have done better in this race in recent years. I think Metier has been equally impressive and unbeaten easy winning horses do not have a ceiling to how good they are.

Many of the other Irish horses are held by AI. The notable exception is Bob Olinger but it looks like he is going to the Ballymore
Soaring Glory has just won the valuable Newbury Handicap but it isn't a profile that yields many Supreme winners

Employing some left field thinking two horses with recent winning form (in less valuable races) are Gowel Road and Grumpy Charley who were 4th and 5th in a Newbury race on 29 Dec. GR has since won twice and GC won 3 times

So in value for money order: Metier, Appreciate It
Wild outsiders: Gowel Road, Grumpy Charley

[Kevloaf]

In the last 20 years only two winners have not been aged 5 or 6: Appreciate it is a 7-y-o
Mullins has won this 5 times in that period.
Successful English trainers in that period are: Henderson (2), George, McCain, Nicholls (2), Hobbs, Johnson. So Ireland 12 GB 8
And the thing is none of the GB trained horses are from those previously successful GB trainers. I find that gobsmacking since this is a division with so many horses
Have they all been put off by the favourite?

There's no doubt AI has the form credentials and has looked impressive when winning. It's always hard to compare the GB and Irish novices but the Irish have done better in this race in recent years. I think Metier has been equally impressive and unbeaten easy winning horses do not have a ceiling to how good they are.

Many of the other Irish horses are held by AI. The notable exception is Bob Olinger but it looks like he is going to the Ballymore
Soaring Glory has just won the valuable Newbury Handicap but it isn't a profile that yileds many Supreme winners

Employing some left field thinking two horses with recent winning form (in less valuable races) are Gowel Road and Grumpy Charley who were 4th and 5th in a Newbury race on 29 Dec. GR has since won twice and GC won 3 times

So in value for money order: Metier, Appreciate It
Wild outsiders: Gowel Road, Grumpy Charley

Nothing to knock in the assessment there or the eventul angle.

I personally don't think Metier has been "equally impressive", as beating the weak fields impressively isn't as good as beating strong fields impressively.


Over the weekend we may get some better Supreme offers and it might make it a more interesting betting event.


We might not though.... if I have one free dart, it'd go on Appreciate It.

[FinalFurlong91]

I think it was Andy holding but may not have been but he mentioned that on final circuit times quillixios was 10 lengths better than appreciate it at the DRF

We also had the situation where zanahiyr had very similar closing sectionals to ballyadam earlier in the season, despite zanahiyrs race being run at a much faster early gallop

Could be that this crop of novice 2 milers is very average

[Might_Bite]

Holding was waxing lyrical about Zanahiyr on the Oddschecker preview - saying he’d run an Our Conor like figure

[DenmanSacre]

Holding was waxing lyrical about Zanahiyr on the Oddschecker preview - saying he’d run an Our Conor like figure

A few of the speed rating and clock watchers have said the same about Zanahiyr. Best figure for a 3 year old at that time of the year and better than most 4 year olds will achieve at the spring festivals. So with any sort of improvement, he should be a massive favourite for the Triumph.

[Altior]

In the last 20 years only two winners have not been aged 5 or 6: Appreciate it is a 7-y-o
Mullins has won this 5 times in that period.
Successful English trainers in that period are: Henderson (2), George, McCain, Nicholls (2), Hobbs, Johnson. So Ireland 12 GB 8
And the thing is none of the GB trained horses are from those previously successful GB trainers. I find that gobsmacking since this is a division with so many horses
Have they all been put off by the favourite?

There's no doubt AI has the form credentials and has looked impressive when winning. It's always hard to compare the GB and Irish novices but the Irish have done better in this race in recent years. I think Metier has been equally impressive and unbeaten easy winning horses do not have a ceiling to how good they are.

Many of the other Irish horses are held by AI. The notable exception is Bob Olinger but it looks like he is going to the Ballymore
Soaring Glory has just won the valuable Newbury Handicap but it isn't a profile that yields many Supreme winners

Employing some left field thinking two horses with recent winning form (in less valuable races) are Gowel Road and Grumpy Charley who were 4th and 5th in a Newbury race on 29 Dec. GR has since won twice and GC won 3 times

So in value for money order: Metier, Appreciate It
Wild outsiders: Gowel Road, Grumpy Charley

Appreciate It is 6 no?

[DenmanSacre]

Appreciate It is 6 no?

No a 7 year old. Same age as Envoi Allen.