Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[ComplyOrDie]

Yes fair comments CoD. Can't argue with the intermediate trip on breeding either.

I meant that I could see them stepping him up in trip ito be a 3 miler in time rather than dropping back, so the Ballymore is a nice stepping stone en route.

Yeah, for sure, lets hope so

[charlie]

Yeah he's going to the Ballymore.

The same ones who were doing geometry and astro physics on if Samcro was going for Supreme or Ballymore are the same ones harping on about this.

He's been napped by nearly every preview night for the Ballymore. Not that it means much that he's napped, more so the fact they're all mentioning him with the Ballymore.

Have you read what's been said on here re BO & the supreme, before making a flippant comment like that?

Nobody has said this is his realistic target, and we all accept the Ballymore is significantly more likely, but a few of us, very rightly IMO, have noticed that the trainer doesn't seem to want to rule it out, he'd be sub 3/1 were he confirmed here, and its a completely risk free bet, with only upside.

There are good NRNB bets, excellent NRNBs, and downright sublime NRNB bets. BO in the Supreme @ 14/1 was the latter, all day IMO

I'll 'harp on' about NRNB bets all day when they tick those sorts of boxes because you get your money back if you are wrong, and obliterate value when you are right. Win. Win.

[Can't Catch Me]

Any bet where you can make 50% profit for doing nothing for a few days and the race not even running can't be a bad one!

[Quevega]

Yeah he's going to the Ballymore.

The same ones who were doing geometry and astro physics on if Samcro was going for Supreme or Ballymore are the same ones harping on about this.

He's been napped by nearly every preview night for the Ballymore. Not that it means much that he's napped, more so the fact they're all mentioning him with the Ballymore.

Only a Fool wouldn't cover it for the Supreme NRNB though.
Or say things like the above.

I replaced Penis with Fool

[delsie777]

Who will / won’t be going from this list?

Hopefully this will finally put paid to talk of 7 Places

[Kevloaf]

The majority of people understand a NRNB price for a horse with an unlikely target is as simple as:

• is this NRNB price value compared to his likely SP

If yes (and your bankroll allows it) it is a value bet
If no, don't back it and don't worry about it.


Bob Olinger was very well highlighted, discussed and backed at 14s and 12s NRNB in these pages.
I personally would agree he'd go off shorter than the current 5/1 too.


However, I expect my money back unless Appreciate It gets injured between right now and Sunday morning and it becomes public knowledge.

[dannycraigpirates]

The majority of people understand a NRNB price for a horse with an unlikely target is as simple as:

• is this NRNB price value compared to his likely SP

If yes (and your bankroll allows it) it is a value bet
If no, don't back it and don't worry about it.


Bob Olinger was very well highlighted, discussed and backed at 14s and 12s NRNB in these pages.
I personally would agree he'd go off shorter than the current 5/1 too.


However, I expect my money back unless Appreciate It gets injured between right now and Sunday morning and it becomes public knowledge.

forgetting the bit about if you do this too often, it’s a sure fire way of losing an account etc

[Quevega]

forgetting the bit about if you do this too often, it’s a sure fire way of losing an account etc

There's only one sure fire way of losing accounts danny.
And that's what we're all trying to do.

Nothing wrong with backing a horse NRNB that you think is value.
If you start backing off from that bet cos of fear of losing your account then there's no point carrying on.
Just stick to the exchanges.

[dannycraigpirates]

There's only one sure fire way of losing accounts danny.
And that's what we're all trying to do.

Nothing wrong with backing a horse NRNB that you think is value.
If you start backing off from that bet cos of fear of losing your account then there's no point carrying on.
Just stick to the exchanges.

Very good point! I was just saying it’s better to be selective with them rather than mass backing all horses that appear nrnb value

[germanshepherd]

There's only one sure fire way of losing accounts danny.
And that's what we're all trying to do.

Nothing wrong with backing a horse NRNB that you think is value.
If you start backing off from that bet cos of fear of losing your account then there's no point carrying on.
Just stick to the exchanges.

Is it worth compromising an account for a bet that's very unlikely to happen? I don't think so.

[Quevega]

Is it worth compromising an account for a bet that's very unlikely to happen? I don't think so.

Why would that bet compromise an account ?
You could say that about any bet.

If you think bookies are flagging accounts on specific value prices then you're in a paranoid world.
And may as well give up, as how do you determine when this may be the case ?

If every time you spot a good value play, you think twice about it then it's not fun anymore.

There is no published formula to account restrictions.
If you lose an account or get restricted then so be it.

My losing accounts are more restricted than my winning accounts. Go figure.

If you worry your account is going to get closed because of a bet that ends up not running and you only get your money back, then you must be on meteorite watch every night.

[Baazzaa]

Torn between ballyadam who I think will be suited by better ground if they get it and metier who I think is beautifully bred. And should like good ground having a flat pedigree. Possibly metier.

[germanshepherd]

Why would that bet compromise an account ?
You could say that about any bet.

If you think bookies are flagging accounts on specific value prices then you're in a paranoid world.
And may as well give up, as how do you determine when this may be the case ?

If every time you spot a good value play, you think twice about it then it's not fun anymore.

There is no published formula to account restrictions.
If you lose an account or get restricted then so be it.

My losing accounts are more restricted than my winning accounts. Go figure.

If you worry your account is going to get closed because of a bet that ends up not running and you only get your money back, then you must be on meteorite watch every night.

You could say that about any 'value' bet but these bets are different because they are very unlikely to happen so it's not worth it on balance. Each to their own.

[Atlantic Viking]

Torn between ballyadam who I think will be suited by better ground if they get it and metier who I think is beautifully bred. And should like good ground having a flat pedigree. Possibly metier.

Indeed, never understood this idea Metier wont like better ground, the pedigree doesn't suggest it should be an issue, no obvious concerns from his flat form either. Absolutely love the way he jumps the last at Ascot on soft ground (https://youtu.be/YMKYKXPcrFU). Trainer is recently quoted as saying “The forecast is for unsettled weather in the middle of next week, and that should hopefully help us see a combination of good to soft and soft, and that would be perfect for him.” - They should get that. If it turned out the weather forecast is a nonsense (perish the thought!) and it goes heavy then we know there's no worries, if it goes good then it brings all the main protagonists into question because we just don't know.

Should state that Ballyadam is my biggest winner in this race by a good margin, mainly due to bets placed before it became clear AI was heading here, but i've never been able to shake off my curiosity about Metier. Every one seems to agree that this is a poor renewal, so why not. There's encouragement to be found in his times and the way he sees out races. And if Summerville Boy can do it...

[Atlantic Viking]

Davy Russel just said on the star sports preview (https://youtu.be/pvLSlbclUAA) that he likes Metier and thinks he'll improve for better conditions. Not keen on AI, among other comments he's worried if he has the pace and the gears.