Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[doctorwu]

I know people still have nagging doubts about AI, 7yo etc but the more you look at this race Appreciate It has to be a day 1 banker. Whats in the race other than Ballyadam.

[Kevloaf]

Surely looking at one of the handicaps for this thing. And it's Meade.

Surely that's a lazy assumption?



You'd think JP had never won a non-handicap the way some people pigeon-hole his horses


Do you the Thedevilscoachman has been campaigned like a 'JP plot' horse? I think he'd have plenty of handicap options.

[doctorwu]

Surely that's a lazy assumption?



You'd think JP had never won a non-handicap the way some people pigeon-hole his horses

Afternoon Kev.

[Kevloaf]

I know people still have nagging doubts about AI, 7yo etc but the more you look at this race Appreciate It has to be a day 1 banker. Whats in the race other than Ballyadam.

Afternoon Kev.

My favourite trends poster, and you have the 7yo as a banker.

Disappointing

[Moby123]

Nah. I think JP probably has plenty for the handicaps but only really this one for the Supreme.
Flinteur has probably run straight into a combine harvester and out the other side since we last saw him, and Willie says Gentleman de Mee is more a Ballymore horse.
Can see him coming here deffo.
16s NRNB available too....

[doctorwu]

My favourite trends poster, and you have the 7yo as a banker.

Disappointing

I know. It look me a while to get over the 7yo thing, but you can't fight the form. He's not loveable like Shishkin, even though he's got far more REAL form in the book.

[Blackdownhills]

Wasn’t a performance without hope and 365 push him out to 66s if you still like him/have an account...

Yea,seemed a slowly run race with a sprint finish. Supreme may see an end to end gallop that'll play to other horses strengths.
to all on AI at bigger prices fair play (I'm not), and to me, whilst he looks the most likely winner I can't have him purely because of the prices and risk of doing your dough first race of the festival.
More homework needed for me to see where the value is and what horses can hit the frame/serve it up to AI.

[Kevloaf]

Yea,seemed a slowly run race with a sprint finish. Supreme may see an end to end gallop that'll play to other horses strengths.
to all on AI at bigger prices fair play (I'm not), and to me, whilst he looks the most likely winner I can't have him purely because of the prices and risk of doing your dough first race of the festival.
More homework needed for me to see where the value is and what horses can hit the frame/serve it up to AI.

Fair play.



What did you think of the winner of todays race then with that in mind? I think he's a fair price at 20/1 on balance compared to a lot of the others listed.

[delsie777]

Yea,seemed a slowly run race with a sprint finish. Supreme may see an end to end gallop that'll play to other horses strengths.
to all on AI at bigger prices fair play (I'm not), and to me, whilst he looks the most likely winner I can't have him purely because of the prices and risk of doing your dough first race of the festival.
More homework needed for me to see where the value is and what horses can hit the frame/serve it up to AI.

Ganapahti is interesting as an eachway proposition. Decent price and ran respectably in Galliard's stroll at Leopardstown until checking out before the last. Originally looked at as a Ballymore horse but seems a non stayer and unlikely to go there with the owner having the winner and Lecales Article for that race. Could always go the handicap route of course.

[Blackdownhills]

Fair play.



What did you think of the winner of todays race then with that in mind? I think he's a fair price at 20/1 on balance compared to a lot of the others listed.

Yea has a live Ew shout and I won't discount him at the price. The supreme (AI aside) seems a bit of a head scratcher for me. I was expecting more from third time lucki but that didn't pan out for whatever reason. Could play safe first ball and go with a Mullins/Elliott/Henderson charge

[Blackdownhills]

....but that's going on stats to a larger degree. I have ballyadam at 20s Ew with a free bet but will need to Cast the net again.

[Kevloaf]

Just given a bit of an update on my Supreme position at the moment.... don't want to clog up this thread #1549

[The King Pimm]

I like the look of Thedevilscoachman for the Supreme. He last 2 runs have been impressive especially his ability to power on when pressed in the last furlong, he looks a powerful horse. Shame he’s trained by Noel Meade who is not that precious about Cheltenham but fortunately TDCM’s owner is so hopefully JP will make the call and he will participate in this years Supreme. I did top up on him post race at 20’s which is a really good e/w price considering the current opposition and he looks like being JP’s best chance in this years Supreme.

[DenmanSacre]

I like the look of Thedevilscoachman for the Supreme. He last 2 runs have been impressive especially his ability to power on when pressed in the last furlong, he looks a powerful horse. Shame he’s trained by Noel Meade who is not that precious about Cheltenham but fortunately TDCM’s owner is so hopefully JP will make the call and he will participate in this years Supreme. I did top up on him post race at 20’s which is a really good e/w price considering the current opposition and he looks like being JP’s best chance in this years Supreme.

The one concern I have with Thedevilscoachman is that each of his wins has been a slow steady pace in the first half and a much quicker second half of the race. In the one race he has been in that has had a decent pace, he was hammered. Not sure the Supreme is going to suit him but if he sticks to hurdles next season, he could be a player in those small field grade 1/2/3s hurdles that there are always plenty of throughout the season.

[Big Bucks]

Appreciate It 11/4 with sky. ?10 max! Double with Cps 6/1 ?20 max