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Here's one left field that could improve into contention. Cadzand, who runs in the Betfair Hurdle and will go very close off 138 IMO.
If it wins well then it could certainly be a contender.
I think it's a good bet on Saturday in it's own right, but will also look to add the win today and at Cheltenham specials.
I wouldn’t back it to win both but I would cover it e/w at 33s NRNB just in case it did win the Betfair - in which case it would blow it’s mark for the county, I’m sure they would then be forced to run here & it would be much shorter than 33s.
If it doesn’t win the Betfair it’ll stay on the County hurdle route & you’ll get your money back so low risk!
Given the form of the yard, I'm wondering if they will pull Metier from Saturday.
The trainer has never been 100% committed. It's not as if 149 is a gift from the Gods.
It's snowing here at the moment and freezing days ahead, so who even knows if Saturday will survive....
Given the form of the yard, I'm wondering if they will pull Metier from Saturday.
The trainer has never been 100% committed. It's not as if 149 is a gift from the Gods.
It's snowing here at the moment and freezing days ahead, so who even knows if Saturday will survive....
You’d imagine if Saturday is off - they’ll try to save the race & run that & the Denman somewhere else within the following week.
Yeh I think its gonna be -5 overnight throughout the week which will penetrate frost covers one would think
I'd say it's touch and go , sunny and plus one or two degrees wed , just above freezing thurs , 0 degrees fri and Plus 1 sat , not too encouraging.
but the frost covers may do their job , like at Chepstow the other saturday .... Finger's and Toe's. ( crossed ).
It's kind of relevant, people will still back horses without the exchange?
2/1 not value....and you'd lay him, but wouldn't lay 11/8.... you planning to lay the 7/4?
Whats your view on what price he should be or will be?
Just FWIW as I see my tone will come across brash, I think he's short right now... he's shorter than Douvan was, and although I think he's "solid" and the most solid "since Douvan", I still think Douvan was a better bet given how fucking bullish they were.
With Apprecaite It, they're just saying what we've seen....he keeps delivering, so they're doing it....
Been all over this race, probably more than any other. I've priced it up as 11/8 on my book.
May sound short but that still leaves 58% to spread amongst the others.
I don't think there have been many renewals that his level of form would justify such a short price but this is no ordinary year.
Metier or My Drogo could post something menacing in the coming days but as things stand today I'm happily mopping up anything 3 or over on Betfair.
I can't disagree that you might have felt it was underwhelming, we saw some more impressive performances that day/weekend!
Putting away that field 2 out, for me, was impressive...and I didn't think he'd get caught... I also don't think he needs more of a turn of foot to win the Supreme... I think if he ran to the exact same level, that'll be good enough.
When I looked through the RP app he was priced 2/11 through Hills. Agree the way he put the field away as stated was impressive I just really expected him to kick on more than he did.
So would I be stupid getting the 41 on Soaring glory for the supreme if he hacks up on Saturday. He is 2lb lower than get me out of here winning this a few years ago and he then came 2nd in the supreme.
Edwardstone I guess then for the county hurdle either way ? Not sure what other race he could go to?
So would I be stupid getting the 41 on Soaring glory for the supreme if he hacks up on Saturday. He is 2lb lower than get me out of here winning this a few years ago and he then came 2nd in the supreme.
Edwardstone I guess then for the county hurdle either way ? Not sure what other race he could go to?
Hi all my first post on the forum so I thought I would start with the first race of the festival.
Over the coming weeks, months, years possibly you will always see me trying to take on a short price favourite at the festival using many factors that I put Into my betting strategies.
I'm a big believer in times and study times throughly as a way of determining a performance and factor them times in with winning distances and the eye test.
I must have been through this race more than any other race so far for this years festival.
Now I have taken times from the past ten years for the tolworth and the moscow flyer the two main trials in England and Ireland plus races at the Dublin festival in the years it has been running plus the novice races in England over Christmas and compared these to the times run by the top 15 in the betting for the supreme.
Normally 7/4 favourite for appreciate it for this year would be my first lay straight away going on times and data and his previous bumper run.
However... after weeks of analysing this race now given the likely field I think it makes him probably one of the bankers of the festival soft ground I think he will potentially win by 5 lengths, now that is huge for a supreme, but the opposition times are so far behind appreciate it .
without boring you all to much and writing pages and pages of my findings for everybody trying to find value on metier, for pleasure, ballyadam etc
Take for instance the supreme that summerville boy won a few years back ( not the strongest renewal )going on all previous results times etc on soft going on all past results metier would finish approx 20-26 lengths behind summerville boy!!!
He is second favourite this year, that just shows the weakness of the race , appreciate it in my eyes is a fill your boots first race banker. Obviously if the ground comes up good , good to soft something like a labaik result may come from leftfield but after weeks of number crunching I think 7/4 is huge.
Billyboo
There are a few in here who use times but not as a basis for their views/selections so it would be good to have the workings on a more professional level.
Get stuck in...
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