Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Carnage at Taunton]

id be more keen on Metier (and tbh it’s impossible for me to be any less keen on him at that price) if he ran in the Betfair hurdle and won. That’s the only way I could fancy him even a bit.

Im the other way....think hes a better chance if he dont run, unless hes desperately in need of a run of course. I saw enough visually in the Tolworth to suggest he will be fine for a supreme hurdle. Hes got speed, and the way he finished up the incline in those conditions impressed me.
Think hes more than a worthy 2nd fav.

[Middle_Of_March]

Im the other way....think hes a better chance if he dont run, unless hes desperately in need of a run of course. I saw enough visually in the Tolworth to suggest he will be fine for a supreme hurdle. Hes got speed, and the way he finished up the incline in those conditions impressed me.
Think hes more than a worthy 2nd fav.

He doesn’t look quick enough to me at all. A good to soft big field supreme and he’ll be off the bridle being scrubbed along before they even get to the 2nd last.

I just don’t think he’s anywhere near quick enough or good enough to place in a supreme and if he did, I’d be really disappointed just for the quality of the race.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He doesn’t look quick enough to me at all. A good to soft big field supreme and he’ll be off the bridle being scrubbed along before they even get to the 2nd last.

I just don’t think he’s anywhere near quick enough or good enough to place in a supreme and if he did, I’d be really disappointed just for the quality of the race.

Ha ha, a view shared by a few on here I think, but as usual the horse will determine whose opinion is more accurate .

[Spectre]

Swinging on the bridle and powering away from a good field of novices doesn't suggest Metier will be tapped for toe. He travels really well, and looks perfectly suited by a race like the Supreme. People are usng the Tolworth to knock him because of the record of Supreme runners in the race, but also forget this Supreme is hardly a vintage edition. Summerville Boy finished second in a Supreme recently in an average year, and he'd be far more a staying type than Metier. Metier is also a much better jumper of a hurdle. I'd also say that the way a Supreme is usually run would suit Metier held up just behind the pace assuming they adopt the usual tactics.

I'm not saying Metier is the winner. Appreciate It looks a good favourite, but I wouldn't be writing Metier off either. I think many people are guilty of marking him down becasue they don't like his price. I don't either, but I definitely can't and won't discount him.

For example, I prefer Irascible's price, but I don't prefer his chance of winning. How could I, when he's already been beaten an easy 9 lengths by Appreciate It. Also he may not come here, so he's not really a 28/1 chance, he's a 16/1 chance as you need nrnb. So all of a sudden I prefer the 7/1 about Metier, and the fact that he 'could' win, when I know Irascible can't.

And Paul Keely, feels like he's stabbing in the dark for one to oppose at a big price to be honest. Surely if he wanted to be smart by using Appreciate It's cross-form he'd be recommending Third Time Lucki at the same 16/1 as Irascible, knowing this was definitely the target, and that one was only three lengths (not an eased down nine), behind Appreciate it in the Champion Bumper at the same course. But what do I know. I don't get money from the gravy train for my tips!!!

[Brooksie]

poor Summerville Boy

[FinalFurlong91]

Summerville boy and kalashnikov finished 1-2 in the tolworth and supreme

Still no idea how Summerville boy stayed on his feet when absolutely walloping one of the hurdles

[OverTheAnvil]

Does anyone know anything about Raf Tavel, entered up for Musselburgh Scottish supreme this weekend? Now with Ben Pauling.

Has form in France:
8L behind Hitman giving him 8lbs
7L behind James Du Berlais

[charlie]

Does anyone know anything about Raf Tavel, entered up for Musselburgh Scottish supreme this weekend? Now with Ben Pauling.

Has form in France:
8L behind Hitman giving him 8lbs
7L behind James Du Berlais

I think you know more than most!!

[Kevloaf]

Does anyone know anything about Raf Tavel, entered up for Musselburgh Scottish supreme this weekend? Now with Ben Pauling.

Has form in France:
8L behind Hitman giving him 8lbs
7L behind James Du Berlais

Scooby91 ?


This is how lazy my opinion on that is..... if he was any good, he wouldn't have gone to Ben Pauling

I think you know more than most!!

[Scooby91]

Scooby91 ?


This is how lazy my opinion on that is..... if he was any good, he wouldn't have gone to Ben Pauling

He's alright, that was a very early james du berlais and JDB hacked up.
He was 2nd in a couple of ok races before the good 3rd to JDB. and won a handicap nicely.

he is not a mug, but he is off an 8 month break, wouldnt be expecting him to beat appreciate it, put it that way.

[Scooby91]

You can see the superiority that james du berlais had below. Absolutely hosed up, And as mentioned, that's pretty much just as he broke out to go towards the big league.

https://www.france-galop.com/fr/course/detail/2020/O/TDl6WnZYMGptNW5QZEhYQlRieFI2UT09

[OverTheLast]

Quote from Gordon Elliott

"I was very impressed with Appreciate It over Christmas – he took the eye out of my head – and he will be hard to beat, but I wouldn't be forgetting about Ballyadam just yet and I would put a line through his run at Christmas."

Kev where is this quote from please? Cheers

[Kevloaf]

Kev where is this quote from please? Cheers

Not got the source to 'hand', but it's genuine.

It's something like the RP from memory, maybe paid content.

I would only quote actual quotes.

It was fairly well publisised...hopefully someone else can confirm quicker than me

[Carnage at Taunton]

Swinging on the bridle and powering away from a good field of novices doesn't suggest Metier will be tapped for toe. He travels really well, and looks perfectly suited by a race like the Supreme. People are usng the Tolworth to knock him because of the record of Supreme runners in the race, but also forget this Supreme is hardly a vintage edition. Summerville Boy finished second in a Supreme recently in an average year, and he'd be far more a staying type than Metier. Metier is also a much better jumper of a hurdle. I'd also say that the way a Supreme is usually run would suit Metier held up just behind the pace assuming they adopt the usual tactics.

I'm not saying Metier is the winner. Appreciate It looks a good favourite, but I wouldn't be writing Metier off either. I think many people are guilty of marking him down becasue they don't like his price. I don't either, but I definitely can't and won't discount him.

For example, I prefer Irascible's price, but I don't prefer his chance of winning. How could I, when he's already been beaten an easy 9 lengths by Appreciate It. Also he may not come here, so he's not really a 28/1 chance, he's a 16/1 chance as you need nrnb. So all of a sudden I prefer the 7/1 about Metier, and the fact that he 'could' win, when I know Irascible can't.

And Paul Keely, feels like he's stabbing in the dark for one to oppose at a big price to be honest. Surely if he wanted to be smart by using Appreciate It's cross-form he'd be recommending Third Time Lucki at the same 16/1 as Irascible, knowing this was definitely the target, and that one was only three lengths (not an eased down nine), behind Appreciate it in the Champion Bumper at the same course. But what do I know. I don't get money from the gravy train for my tips!!!

Agree with a lot of those points, in particular re Metier. Thing is he’s won the only grade 1 for the novices over 2m in Britain and won it well. Yes he’s a flat bred wining the Tolworth and rather than knocking those stars if people choose to, I would say it’s a good sign that a flat bred is able to do what he did in a tolworth in the normal tough conditions that race brings, I done imagine too many flat breds have won the race, maybe not many actually ran in it? Personally think it bodes well for him at Cheltenham.

[Quevega]

Agree with a lot of those points, in particular re Metier. Thing is he’s won the only grade 1 for the novices over 2m in Britain and won it well. Yes he’s a flat bred wining the Tolworth and rather than knocking those stars if people choose to, I would say it’s a good sign that a flat bred is able to do what he did in a tolworth in the normal tough conditions that race brings, I done imagine too many flat breds have won the race, maybe not many actually ran in it? Personally think it bodes well for him at Cheltenham.

I said the same when people were downplaying him immediately after the Tolworth.
I thought he was impressive looking, although what he beat is open to question.