Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Istabraq]

Running them trends for the supreme has incredible strike rate, looking at your analysis. I note you say you don’t do for arkle, which I get, but are there any other races that have similar or better trend figures than the supreme? Sorry can’t see how to reply opatcho

Well worth you checking out the threads put up by
Kotkijet and his working with juveniles, all trends/stats stuff I find fascinating and a joy to read....

[Smiley]

Cheers istabraq will look for these as nothing like a good read of Cheltenham related content haha

[opatcho]

Running them trends for the supreme has incredible strike rate, looking at your analysis. I note you say you don’t do for arkle, which I get, but are there any other races that have similar or better trend figures than the supreme? Sorry can’t see how to reply opatcho

One of the first articles I saw online about dosages in National Hunt was focussed around the Gold Cup and used i to the explain why horses like Silviniaco Conti (0.00) won king georges but never a gold cup. Same could be said about clan des obeaux (CD 0.20), Cue Card (0.29). Frodon (0.42)


al boum photo (-0.50)
native river (-0.25), Might Bite (-0.38) the latter did win a King George, so you have to interpret this accordingly and along with distance, ability, and how the horse generally runs.
Coneygree (-1.10!!)
Lord Windermere (-0.44)
Bobs worth (-0.14)
But you get some outlyers like Sizing John (0.50), if I recall that was the year they didnt go that quick

Then you loo at some weird dosages like Melon, really strange animal that one DI is 4.00, the last horse I was with a DI this high was Yanworth!! Melon has a CD of 1.20. He's a weird predigee... and for those that are religious with dosages they will bin Melon for the Gold Cup

.... sorry, this turned into a Gold Cup/KG discussion but was just trying to answer question which other races I've seen this used for

Anyway... its a slow monday so if anything these posts are helping keep these threads ticking over lol

[Istabraq]

opatcho

Great stuff.
Feel free to do a race by race breakdown (where you have researched) on a separate thread, I’m sure many will find that extremely interesting....

[nortonscoin200]

Metier - just throwing that out. Would those who arent keen on Metier because of a potential run in the Betfair Hurdle be more positive on the horse IF goes straight to the supreme. This could be likely given weather conditions and the Betfair hurdle going ahead

Love your analysis Opatcho - fascinating stuff.

Can't wait for the next installment.

[isitmarchyet]

Anybody know much about this Arctic Warrior? JP/Mullins horse declared at Down Royal on Thursday. Has a Supreme entry.

[Scooby91]

Anybody know much about this Arctic Warrior? JP/Mullins horse declared at Down Royal on Thursday. Has a Supreme entry.

3rd in a poor looking flat race in France, you can watch below.

https://www.france-galop.com/fr/cour...FVUnRKRVNlUT09

[isitmarchyet]

Thanks Scooby91. Doesn't seem one to get excited about.

[Scooby91]

Thanks Scooby91. Doesn't seem one to get excited about.

Has pace anyway, but not the type I typically like. Maybe dual purpose in the future.

[Brital]

One of the first articles I saw online about dosages in National Hunt was focussed around the Gold Cup and used i to the explain why horses like Silviniaco Conti (0.00) won king georges but never a gold cup. Same could be said about clan des obeaux (CD 0.20), Cue Card (0.29). Frodon (0.42)


al boum photo (-0.50)
native river (-0.25), Might Bite (-0.38) the latter did win a King George, so you have to interpret this accordingly and along with distance, ability, and how the horse generally runs.
Coneygree (-1.10!!)
Lord Windermere (-0.44)
Bobs worth (-0.14)
But you get some outlyers like Sizing John (0.50), if I recall that was the year they didnt go that quick

Then you loo at some weird dosages like Melon, really strange animal that one DI is 4.00, the last horse I was with a DI this high was Yanworth!! Melon has a CD of 1.20. He's a weird predigee... and for those that are religious with dosages they will bin Melon for the Gold Cup

.... sorry, this turned into a Gold Cup/KG discussion but was just trying to answer question which other races I've seen this used for

Anyway... its a slow monday so if anything these posts are helping keep these threads ticking over lol

Really enjoyed those posts Opatcho.
Any chance you could give a quick precis of dosage, CD & DI, so I can appreciate them more?
Thanks

[Cashew King]

Boothill out for the season

https://harryfryracing.com/boothill-ruled-out-for-the-rest-of-the-season/

[taylorch1990]

Boothill out for the season

https://harryfryracing.com/boothill-...of-the-season/

Cheers for the update. Gutted as I really fancied the horse but luckily cashed most of my stakes out with 365 just now so anyone else who's backed him with 365 cash out while you can.

[Eggs]

Boothill out for the season

https://harryfryracing.com/boothill-...of-the-season/

....cashed-out (except for an a/r interest with Hills), cheers.

[opatcho]

Really enjoyed those posts Opatcho.
Any chance you could give a quick precis of dosage, CD & DI, so I can appreciate them more?
Thanks

I found this article the most useful in terms of explaining dosages, its worth a read... and also shows how this can be used in conjunction with other methods (i.e. trends) to help narrow down your short list, or attack a race via a different angle

http://bettingnote.blogspot.com/2015/01/gold-cup-dosages-2015.html

[Kevloaf]

Quote from Gordon Elliott

"I was very impressed with Appreciate It over Christmas – he took the eye out of my head – and he will be hard to beat, but I wouldn't be forgetting about Ballyadam just yet and I would put a line through his run at Christmas."