Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Atlantic Viking]

Really don't know what to do with Appreciate It. When watching back last years bumper, if you pretend Ferny Hollow isn't there then he looks decent, but I just can't help but think he's ended up in this by accident and something somewhere will swamp him late on up the hill. He's not pulled up any trees time wise.
I wouldn't be as dismissive of Metier as some have been by the way, I don't see that he's done much wrong and in a year most seem to agree isn't likely to be vintage, it's worth remembering winners like Summerville Boy and Menorah, they don't all have to be potential all time greats. He has the mentality and there's some nice enough looking form lines.

[Atlantic Viking]

Now personally I believe he'd reversve that with Ferny Hollow if they ran the bumper again

Why? FH had plenty against him in the bumper if you watch back from the very start, was at the back and took a good while to settle. Won well in the end though. Can't see much of a case for a reverse. Wasn't many excuses available for Appreciate It.

[Kevloaf]

Why? FH had plenty against him in the bumper if you watch back from the very start, was at the back and took a good while to settle. Won well in the end though. Can't see much of a case for a reverse. Wasn't many excuses available for Appreciate It.

Respectfully disagree... Appreciate It doesn't need "many excuses", he's been beaten by one horse.... and we won't ever know if we're right or wrong as 'said horse' isn't running but.....

• Was considered better beforehand
• If jockey had known FH would "bounce back" would have ridden the race differently.

At least a "case for a reverse"?

[Energumene]

Im on Metier and Third Time Lucki at decent prices, but there was shades of Vautour about Appreciate It and im kicking myself for not taking the 14s. I backed Flinteur Sacre as well and you have to draw the line at how many you bet in the same race, this is one of only 2 races ive backed more than 1 in and i dont expect to collect.

I think Appreciate It will be about 7/4 on the day and im not interested in stealing a point at 11/4, hes going to be better over fences and further but class wins this race, and there doesnt appear to be many in his.

You are looking for scraps if you missed the 14s about the fav but I do think Third Time Lucki at 16s is still good value and id recommend him to anyone who wants an interest, i dont bet ew but i think he will definitely place and if there is to be one with too much speed for the favourite its probably him. He wasnt far behind in the bumper and he should be unbeaten over hurdles, he won the same race at Kempton as Menorah en route to this, and skipping the betfair hurdle with him might not be the worst idea. Can see him being held up and picking off plenty late on, but Appreciate It might be long gone.

[Madmoose]

Starting to wonder could Ballyadam close the gap at the DRF next week if you put a line through Elliott’s xmas runs as we know there were problems?

[Middle_Of_March]

He was 12/1 at one point for the Supreme that horse. Based on literally nothing but him being the brother of Sprinter Sacre - a horse who himself wasn’t actually able to win his novice hurdle at the fez.

Let’s hope the flinteur superstar nonsense ends now. As he’s clearly talentless.

And no it’s not aftertiming.. I said it in the summer and I said it again last week on this thread.

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m finding it hard to back Appreciate It any more than I have and looking for a credible alternative. I can’t remember a Supreme where I have felt so despondent with 6 weeks to go. Appreciate It isn’t a genuine 2 miler, can you see him competing for the Churdle or Arkle next season?? My first bet on him in May was for the Albert Bartlett and it looked realistic. I think he’s Fav for the Supreme through default and not plan.

The thing this year though is that the potential ‘credible alternatives’ are falling by the wayside. Day in, day out something someone somewhere fancies for the supreme is getting walloped. Metier at second fav for me says it all. Flinteur Scare before today still being 20/1 based on who his brother was. Plenty of horses in the betting who’ve been beaten comfortably by far worse horses than Appreicate It.

All the while Appreciate It, a horse who’s ran well in a Champion Bumper that looks to be holding up form wise, stays in his box. He’s come out and won his Grade 1. He’s got the form in the book. Even if you argue that the race wasn’t the original plan, which I would probably agree with, he looks to be the classiest horse in the race by a street. And with that in mind, I’m prepared to say that 11/4 is really genuine value. The closer we get, the more the competition just looks average. I’m never afraid to call it a poor renewal for the supreme and this year is the biggest example of a race that looks weak as piss on paper if you take the fav out.

I just think he wins. Bit boring to call the fav the winner with 6 weeks still to go but he just looks a class above what might well be a poor poor crop.

[charlie]

But that's the point right there in your own fair hand. He was picked off by FH going up the hill and on that basis he hasn't looked invincible IMO, in comparison with some of Willie's greats. Yes he's a future chaser and Patrick quoted way back they can't wait to see him over 3 miles, which is partly why so many of us latched on to the Ballymore or Albert Bartlett route, never thinking he'd go here because Ferny Hollow was always regarded as the speed merchant.

So please don't tell me the plan has always been the Supreme for AI from the start of the season because I'm just not buying that.

I think people who backed AI for the Ballymore / Albert Bartlett are struggling to come to terms with what Appreciate It has shown us this season (I had the same issue with Ballyadam, so please don't take that the wrong way).

Patrick looking forward to seeing him over 3m......this time last year Willie went on record saying this about the eventual supreme favourite 'I had him down as a two-mile-six or three-mile horse. It looks like I'm wrong and he's a two-miler'.

Setting aside all of the background noise, I think the supreme equation is actually quite simple. To win the Supreme you need a strong traveller that wont be outpaced by a frantic speed early, a horse that will stay on at the end of the race, and a horse that jumps accurately and doesn't make mistakes. Appreciate It ticks all three boxes, and, very importantly, the competition looks thin on the ground.

[Carnage at Taunton]

He was 12/1 at one point for the Supreme that horse. Based on literally nothing but him being the brother of Sprinter Sacre - a horse who himself wasn’t actually able to win his novice hurdle at the fez.

Let’s hope the flinteur superstar nonsense ends now. As he’s clearly talentless.

And no it’s not aftertiming.. I said it in the summer and I said it again last week on this thread.

I’m going to stick up for the horse........I don’t think you can accuse a horse of being talentless until you have seen that horse run without pulling the jockeys arms out!! He’s not a horse I have spent cash on yet thank god!! but IF they can find a way to settle him( I think a fence may help in that regard)I think that’s the time to judge.

[Carnage at Taunton]

Given the lack of perceived depth in the novice hurdles (especially middle distances) I can see him being compeititve in an Arkle. Champion Hurdle not so much...

I tink he'll be ante post fav for the Arkle, Marsh and RSA to be honest.

I did back him for the RSA 2022 quite speculatively at 50/1 but that was when I thought he'd be a Ballymore horse.

If I was forced now, I'd say he's most likely to go for the Marsh but only because Willie will have other options at 2m (Elixir D'Ainay, Ferny Hollow etc)...


I would have disagreed with you at the time about the Albert Bartlett (although I'd have him fav for that too).... I just think he's head and shoulders the best novice hurdler this season, so I am not taking him on.

I think he'd fucking wallop Bob Olinger and Bravemansgame for example... or Stattler or whatever none grade 1 3 milers are in that market.


He's just easily the best for me. The second fav is not good enough to win any Supreme, and third fav is the horse you mention, who Appreciate It comfortably beat in the bumper....


I just can't see reason to take him on.

Blimey , that’s confidence, and may I say somewhat dismissive on a fair few novices that will be improving and have been impressive. For example I would love to see AI take on BMG and BO in the Ballymore, don’t think that would be a cakewalk.
However he’s in the Supreme and a worthy fav, but no means over the line yet, there’s horses up against him we have seen run good races this season, and whose to say the form in sire land is better than the form in Britain?

[Energumene]

I backed Flinteur Sacre a long time ago, gave up on him what seems like a long time ago too, he looked to have plenty of quality in his bumper win but has clearly gone the wrong way mentally, it happens. Had no idea till now that he ran yesterday as he was completely off my radar.

[Green Goddess]

Re: Appreciate It bumper form.... he was the only one in the top 8 or so who was up with the pace the whole way round so I mark him up for that.

[ComplyOrDie]

I’m going to stick up for the horse........I don’t think you can accuse a horse of being talentless until you have seen that horse run without pulling the jockeys arms out!! He’s not a horse I have spent cash on yet thank god!! but IF they can find a way to settle him( I think a fence may help in that regard)I think that’s the time to judge.

Yeah, I'm not entirely giving up on him, but until his mental state is sorted he's zero chance of being a decent race horse.

Hopefully he will have a break, and get put over a fence and you never know, we may just see a different animal next season.

[Quevega]

Anyone who thinks Appreciate It has not got speed is missing the obvious.
Of course he has.

And the Cheltenham bumper he got beat in is misleading many people.

When a horse is up with the pace in a reasonably strongly run race for the ground, and gets caught near the line by a horse that has been held up near the back.
And most of the other horses up with the pace fell back through the field.

What does this tell you ?

Has Ferny Hollow won because he has more speed or more stamina ?, to run past slowing horses who have not ran as efficiently as they might have done ?

Patrick got this horse wrong and it's not the first time either. The ride and the comments.
They've probably been surprised that's all, by a horse they bought to be a future staying chaser.

The biggest risk to Appreciate it is the same thing that happened in the bumper, and he over does it up near the pace.

But I'll tell you one thing (keegan).

It won't be a speed horse that beats him.
It'll be more of a stamina horse like Summerville boy who runs more efficiently and comes from off the pace.

[Quevega]

Re: Appreciate It bumper form.... he was the only one in the top 8 or so who was up with the pace the whole way round so I mark him up for that.

Correctamundo