Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Altior]

Sprinter right now would still wallop Flinteur. Disappointed I bought into the hype

[Penzance]

Cashed out immediately.

[Scooby91]

Very lucky to get any cashout at all on flinteur. Hopefully a few have read my horses to avoid which couldnt have worked out any better

Almost everything as fav, and everything has bombed from fav to no mans land to date, bar zanahiyr who hasn't stepped up at all yet, and will get beaten when the time comes imo.


https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/...nham-festival/

I won't be doing a free version for next seasons chelt, however will be updating the current one fairly shortly.

[The King Pimm]

Very disappointing from Flinteur and no excuses this time. He may improve with time if he ever calms down but he’s not good enough this season. Lost 2pts from not being able to cash out.

I’m guessing that a few from the Ballymore will be redirected to this years Supreme, it’s looking weak and probably the easiest novice hurdle race to place in. There’s no rush to back anyone for a week but I’m tempted to top on Third Time Lucki. If he places he’s better value than Appreciate It winning.

[The King Pimm]

Comparing Sprinter and Flinteur reminds me of Arsenal signing Christoper Wreh, cos he was George Weah's cousin!

I remember that!!

[Kevloaf]

I’m guessing that a few from the Ballymore will be redirected to this years Supreme, it’s looking weak and probably the easiest novice hurdle race to place in. There’s no rush to back anyone for a week but I’m tempted to top on Third Time Lucki. If he places he’s better value than Appreciate It winning.

It isn't though matey....

2 pt on Appreciate It to win, gets you 7.5 pts back (5.5 pts profit)
(2 pts) 1 pt e/w on Third Time Lucki and him placing, gets you 4.2 pts back (2.2 pts profit)

[Outlaw]

It isn't though matey....

2 pt on Appreciate It to win, gets you 7.5 pts back (5.5 pts profit)
(2 pts) 1 pt e/w on Third Time Lucki and him placing, gets you 4.2 pts back (2.2 pts profit)

So many misunderstand this too Kev. folk see the place and divide by 1/4th,1/5th and forget to double the win stake as you say.
a 20/1 place is basically a 6/4 winner which sounds wrong until you write it down, often surprises a few.

[dannycraigpirates]

So many misunderstand this too Kev. folk see the place and divide by 1/4th,1/5th and forget to double the win stake as you say.
a 20/1 place is basically a 6/4 winner which sounds wrong until you write it down, often surprises a few.

People have a snobbery about picking bigger priced horses each way instead of short priced favourites to win. In fact I’d go as far as saying, most people would rather back a 25/1 loser who ran well in defeat than a 1/2 winner. More fool them

[Outlaw]

People have a snobbery about picking bigger priced horses each way instead of short priced favourites to win. In fact I’d go as far as saying, most people would rather back a 25/1 loser who ran well in defeat than a 1/2 winner. More fool them

Yeah can't disagree and even main stream pundits on the tele are guilty of peddling out "the fav is short so i'm going XYZ as it's an e/w price or 10/1 is a bit of value in the race" etc. Obvs judge every horse and race on it's merit but you get the jist.

[dannycraigpirates]

Value vs Price. Thankfully most on here get it. Makes a rare change to discuss with people who understand these concepts

[ToniC]

Yeah can't disagree and even main stream pundits on the tele are guilty of peddling out "the fav is short so i'm going XYZ as it's an e/w price or 10/1 is a bit of value in the race" etc. Obvs judge every horse and race on it's merit but you get the jist.

Just on this, which is unrelated really to the subject of the thread, I bet every day the racing is on (Irish stuff that is) and occasionally on the British racing too, and agree with the sentiment that value is value no matter the price, in theory (I backed Envoi Alllen at 1/3 for the drinmore, went off nearly half the price), the problem translating it to real life is the bookies are much more likely IMO to get the prices wrong of the horses that aren’t directly at head of the market, and when it comes to making money if you can consistently beat SP you’ll be up long term when all is said and done, which is a lot easier with horses at a bit bigger price as they’re more likely to be wrong by a bigger margin. obviously the down side of that is that you’ll have a lower strike rate, and the drawdowns can be longer, but ultimately you’ll be up long term. Some people take it to the extreme, when I was active on Twitter 2 years or so ago I followed a guy who was pretty successful backing stuff at crazy prizes, and had more than 1 100+ Bsp winners, but had some ridiculous drawdowns too.

[Grinch]

Very lucky to get any cashout at all on flinteur. Hopefully a few have read my horses to avoid which couldnt have worked out any better

Almost everything as fav, and everything has bombed from fav to no mans land to date, bar zanahiyr who hasn't stepped up at all yet, and will get beaten when the time comes imo.


https://scooby91horseracingtips.com/...nham-festival/

I won't be doing a free version for next seasons chelt, however will be updating the current one fairly shortly.

do you honestly believe Zanahiyr price is due to people just comparing overall times? nobody does that ...the comparison iirc was regarding the sections not the overall time and the differing pace at various points was discussed by Simon Rowlands and others. ..you then discuss how his time differed from a race run 11 years ago .. which after saying its nonsense to compare overall times on the day is an interesting take on it . The whole point of the sectional analysis is to provide a comparison in the manner in which a race is run..not the overall time .

[Carnage at Taunton]

People have a snobbery about picking bigger priced horses each way instead of short priced favourites to win. In fact I’d go as far as saying, most people would rather back a 25/1 loser who ran well in defeat than a 1/2 winner. More fool them

Personally I would rather back a winner but I would rather look to another race than back a 1/2 shot. It’s all each to there own

[Scooby91]

do you honestly believe Zanahiyr price is due to people just comparing overall times? nobody does that ...the comparison iirc was regarding the sections not the overall time and the differing pace at various points was discussed by Simon Rowlands and others. ..you then discuss how his time differed from a race run 11 years ago .. which after saying its nonsense to compare overall times on the day is an interesting take on it . The whole point of the sectional analysis is to provide a comparison in the manner in which a race is run..not the overall time .

He has beaten zero. Everything I have seen, compared his overall time to the royal bond.


Sectional times

Any race can be re-assessed by examining the pace the race was run at. In simple terms, a slowly run race favours front-runners and very fast run races favour hold-up horses.

Using sectional timing you can calculate the pace of a race and therefore calculate the difference it would have made if each horse had run efficiently rather than at the pace at which they actually raced. Performances can be upgrade or downgraded to reflect the advantage or disadvantage the pace of the race conveyed.

The overall times, only tells you The pace of a race for example can influence the result of a race dramatically.


Relying on performance and/or speed figures on paper that are solely based on a final time can be helpful but it is only one piece of the puzzle and you may be missing out on important information that can cost you.
Many times final time ratings are influenced by what goes on early in the race (the pace).

So imo your far better off going on your own visual impression yourself during video analysis, than just using finishing times on the day, or trying to compare that to different races, when it’s just not comparable for the reasons above.

FWIW I find the likes of Simon rowlands.... fairly useless myself, and that's just my own opinion because they only bang on about sectional times and use nothing else,
if you rely on sectional times only, and do well, your in an extremely minuscule amount of people who make it pay, it wouldn't even make up 5% of what I do myself, I dont hear them right very often when they bang on about one, and you can plainly see the horse, ie Caribbean boy.... hasn't just improved a whole ton and now is a grade 1 horse... because a stop watch says so, likewise zanihiyr has beaten trees of which the likes of Saint sam, who I know well. And won 2 nothing races in france, the best horse he had beat, horse maha was held right up to they a clear view at his fences having fallen the time before, and is not much good himself. Zanahiyr hasn't beaten a horse who will be top 10 in the triumph, let alone a graded horse of any level

.

[dannycraigpirates]

I’m not disagreeing with you, but surely there’s some knowledgable traders who would be looking to take Zanahiyr on then due to the above? Is it just because Saint Sam was short in the market before Zanahiyr beat him?

My issue with the horse is that I believe Duffel Coat has shown the best form for Gordon so far and is far bigger, and then you’ve also got Quilixios who has a steedy reputation again at a bigger price - so I would be opposing based on not even knowing whether he’s the best horse in the yard never mind the market.