Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Kevloaf]

Kev, maybe you've heard of one or two of these horses who have run at Hereford?

1983 Champion Hurdler Gaye Brief began his career by winning a hurdle race at Hereford in November 1981.

1994 Champion Hurdler Flakey Dove finished second in a bumper at Hereford in April 1990.

1997 Champion Hurdler Make A Stand won a novice hurdle at Hereford in May 1996.

1982 Gold Cup winner Silver Buck won a race at Hereford

1983 Gold Cup winner Bregawn won at Hereford

1986 Grand National winner West Tip won a handicap chase at Hereford in 1985 and followed up by winning the Ritz (now the Ultima) at the Festival before falling at Bechers second time round when looking like the winner of that year's National.

Now turning to football........

Hereford United have had a bull on the club badge for as long as I can remember in honour of the world-renowned Hereford cattle breed.

Before every big match at Edgar Street a prize Hereford bull would always be paraded around the ground and some fans would plant a swede in the centre circle (don't ask me why, presumably the rural nature of the county).

I speak as a lifelong fan who was standing on the Meadow End terrace when Ronnie Radford scored the epic goal which helped the Southern League outfit knock mighty Newcastle United out of the Cup in 1972.

Only born in '88, so only Flakey Dove and Make A Stand have made it into my realm
Might have heard of some of the others with more context if I stretched myself but none of them being since 1986 probably backs up that it's not a track that's that important these days in terms of top class horses

I do know Ronnie Radford
Not personally....

[Birds Nest]

will come on for the run but probably needs the Ballymore trip not 2miles

Henderson quoted "hes a staying chaser and his next run will be over 2m4f" Ref Gallyhill

[Topofthegame2021]

Henderson quoted "hes a staying chaser and his next run will be over 2m4f" Ref Gallyhill

Thanks! Going to leave the Supreme bet for now in case anything changes

[Kevloaf]

I've cashed the 40/1 bet with 365 for Gallyhill.
Will leave the 33/1 NRNB that I had and just expect my money back.

[Kevloaf]

Right....

Is Appreciate It going to be 11/4 or bigger, between now and the Supreme?

• Is he going to the DRF? (I can't find any musings from Mullins)
• Will bookies look to take him on (almost certainly yes)
• Will he have contracted before they do that?

I reckon this PP NRNB special at 11/4 might hold for a few days again meaning I can get a decent stake on.

[billymag]

Goes off 6/4 after he wins at the DRF

[Kevloaf]

Goes off 6/4 after he wins at the DRF

That'd be shorter than every renewal bar 2010 - 4/5 - Dunguib

2008 - 8/1C - Binocular, Muirhead, Pigeon Island
2009 - 9/4 - Cousin Vinny
2011 - 7/4 - Cue Card
2012 - 6/1 - Galileo's Choice (who the feck - would have thought it was Darlan fav!)
2013 - 15/8 - My Tent Or Yours
2014 - 7/2J - Vautour, Irving
2015 - 2/1 - Douvan
2016 - 15/8 - Min
2017 - 3/1J - Melon, Ballyandy
2018 - 7/4 - Getabird
2019 - 9/2J - Fakir D'Oudaries, Al Dancer
2020 - 9/4 - Asterion Forlonge

[billymag]

Not seeing too much competition at the moment, obviously at that price it assumes he wins well at DRF

[Kevloaf]

Not seeing too much competition at the moment, obviously at that price it assumes he wins well at DRF

Yeah I agree, which is why I'm getting tempted.

I'm trying to find reasons not to thought before I do....

I've said already I think he's the most solid fav since Douvan, and all season I've said I think he'll end up better than Ferny Hollow, and that he would be the one to beat over any distance this season.... so my colours are nailed to the mast......


but....... good to get another side as I'm already biased.

[Quevega]

Yeah I agree, which is why I'm getting tempted.

I'm trying to find reasons not to thought before I do....

I've said already I think he's the most solid fav since Douvan, and all season I've said I think he'll end up better than Ferny Hollow, and that he would be the one to beat over any distance this season.... so my colours are nailed to the mast......


but....... good to get another side as I'm already biased.

Have you backed it yet ?
Let me stake 50p
And it's in a Newcastle specials section that may not last today.

[billymag]

I just cant see what will challenge him in the market if he does win well at the DRF.

[Kevloaf]

Have you backed it yet ?
Let me stake 50p
And it's in a Newcastle specials section that may not last today.

Yeah they'll let me get loooooads more than that on....

Yeah I did see that...I might just do it.... no-ones gonna be able to put me off are they

[Moby123]

Yeah I agree, which is why I'm getting tempted.

I'm trying to find reasons not to thought before I do....

I've said already I think he's the most solid fav since Douvan, and all season I've said I think he'll end up better than Ferny Hollow, and that he would be the one to beat over any distance this season.... so my colours are nailed to the mast......


but....... good to get another side as I'm already biased.

No Ruby to cut out perfect fractions any more so Townend will need to dig the videos out
In last year's Bumper the horse had the slowest cadence over (if I remember correctly) the last 3 furlongs of the prominent finishers, and it looks like it's going to have to gallop them all into submission. Third Time Lucki only has a few lengths to make up on the Bumper form and hit the line hard that day. If it sits closer to Appreciate It's tail this time around it could certainly take some shaking off. I'm keen on Metier too.
Right favourite but 5/2 isn't a steal from what we know about the horse and it's rivals at the moment for my money.

[Kevloaf]

I'm pretty confident he'd have improved more from the bumper than Third Time Lucki has. If he reverses the form I'll have done my money for sure. (Unless Third Time Lucki is 16/1 with about 7 places when we get closer and I'd have a bet on)

Not having Ruby is a negative, obviously....but Townend isn't worse than many... he's not a huge positive, but he's still really good and not a negative.

Metier is fair enough, he's the kind of horse who has no chance of usurping him as fav so not one I feel I need to rush in to backing now, having missed him so far.



I've just checked with 0.05 pts and I can cashout for 100%, and it's NRNB - so I'm going to get as much as I can on and hope it still is there tomorrow.

[Moby123]

I don't think it's a given that a 7yo is improving quicker than a 6yo......though you may of course be right - the ratings of the horses at the moment certainly suggests that's the case. When I look at the prices that some of the recent Supreme winners have started at, the current price of Appreciate It just looks a little tight at the moment.