Supreme Novices Hurdle 2021

[Lobos]

Has Gordon said that ballyadam may not go to the future champions novice hurdle at leopardstown and instead go the the DRF?

BF/PP have him priced up 4/1 - so surly he doesnt turn up.

Agree. Surely he'd be Fav v Appreciate It if he were heading that way ?

[Saxon Warrior]

Agree. Surely he'd be Fav v Appreciate It if he were heading that way ?

I really don't think Ballyadam will run in 2 more Grade 1's before Cheltenham.
It does make sense to go for one or the other, and as he has already won a Grade 1 in December, he may wait the extra 6 weeks and run at the beginning of February.

The history is with runners winning in the DRF 2M Grade 1 doubling up at Cheltenham, and the winners of the Future Champions 2M Grade 1 not doubling up at Cheltenham.

If I were looking at the stats and race planning, I would skip Christmas with Ballyadam and take in the Grade 1 on 7th February at Leopardstown.

Future Champions Hurdle
Last 10 years, horses who won at Christmas and the the Supreme or Ballymore at Cheltenham.

Last 10 years - NONE

Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, DRF
Last 10 years, horses who won at Christmas and the the Supreme or Ballymore at Cheltenham.

2019 Klassical Dream (Supreme win)
2018 Samcro (Ballymore win)
2014 Vautour (Supreme win)
2013 Champagne Fever (Supreme win)

[Lobos]

I really don't think Ballyadam will run in 2 more Grade 1's before Cheltenham.
It does make sense to go for one or the other, and as he has laready won a Grade 1 in December, he may wait the extra 6 weeks and run at the beginning of February.

The history is with runners winning in the DRF 2M Grade 1 doubling up at Cheltenham, and the winners of the Future Champions 2M Grade 1 not doubling up at Cheltenham.

If I were looking at the stats and race planning, I would skip Christmas with Ballyadam and take in the Grade 1 on 7th February at Leopardstown.

Future Champions Hurdle
Last 10 years, horses who won at Christmas and the the Supreme or Ballymore at Cheltenham.

2012 Jezki (Supreme win)


Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, DRF
Last 10 years, horses who won at Christmas and the the Supreme or Ballymore at Cheltenham.

2019 Klassical Dream (Supreme win)
2018 Samcro (Ballymore win)
2014 Vautour (Supreme win)
2013 Champagne Fever (Supreme win)

Agree with all this Saxon. Makes sense now why the big gap in prices between the 2.

[Saxon Warrior]

Agree with all this Saxon. Makes sense now why the big gap in prices between the 2.

We are all going to have so-so many horses we have backed for Cheltenham, running over the Christmas Festivals that if Ballyadam skipped a run until the DRF that would be a small mercy for those of us, who have backed him.

Lets keep some of the bigger dreams alive through the next 10 days.

[Quevega]

We are all going to have so-so many horses we have backed for Cheltenham, running over the Christmas Festivals that if Ballyadam skipped a run until the DRF that would be a small mercy for those of us, who have backed him.

Lets keep some of the bigger dreams alive through the next 10 days.

Jezki didn’t win a supreme

[ComplyOrDie]

I really don't think Ballyadam will run in 2 more Grade 1's before Cheltenham.
It does make sense to go for one or the other, and as he has already won a Grade 1 in December, he may wait the extra 6 weeks and run at the beginning of February.

The history is with runners winning in the DRF 2M Grade 1 doubling up at Cheltenham, and the winners of the Future Champions 2M Grade 1 not doubling up at Cheltenham.

If I were looking at the stats and race planning, I would skip Christmas with Ballyadam and take in the Grade 1 on 7th February at Leopardstown.

Future Champions Hurdle
Last 10 years, horses who won at Christmas and the the Supreme or Ballymore at Cheltenham.

2012 Jezki (Supreme win)


Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle, DRF
Last 10 years, horses who won at Christmas and the the Supreme or Ballymore at Cheltenham.

2019 Klassical Dream (Supreme win)
2018 Samcro (Ballymore win)
2014 Vautour (Supreme win)
2013 Champagne Fever (Supreme win)

Although I went into far far less detail, this was something I had noted on one of threads just last week. I'm pretty sure Jezki didn't win the Supreme?

Thanks for doing the leg work though

I'll stick to the Moscow Flyer and Chanelle Pharma for guidance from Willie, which seems to have the best historical route.

[Pendil]

Agree with all this Saxon. Makes sense now why the big gap in prices between the 2.

Mt
The future champions hurdle has been intriguing me. The betting suggests Ballyadam is unlikely to run. The strong favourite @ 5/4 is Appreciate It but Patrick has been talking up Blue Lord specifically for this race and I would think the Lawlors race in January over 2 1/2 ml would suit AI better. Blue Lords form doesn't really stack up.

So I am betting Keskonrisk @ 7/1
I hope Leopardstown gets some rain tomorrow or Tuesday, otherwise they may have to turn on the taps

[Might_Bite]

Fire Attack @ 10/1 would interest me. He was impressive on debut in the grade 3 at navan against more experienced rivals. A very taking performance. I think most would agree that this drop in trip would also suit as he showed an impressive turn of foot before being caught on the line.

[germanshepherd]

Mt
The future champions hurdle has been intriguing me. The betting suggests Ballyadam is unlikely to run. The strong favourite @ 5/4 is Appreciate It but Patrick has been talking up Blue Lord specifically for this race and I would think the Lawlors race in January over 2 1/2 ml would suit AI better. Blue Lords form doesn't really stack up.

So I am betting Keskonrisk @ 7/1
I hope Leopardstown gets some rain tomorrow or Tuesday, otherwise they may have to turn on the taps

You think his maiden was stronger than Blue Lord? They pulled clear of the 3rd in both races. Blue Lord got 130 RPR keskonrisk got 119.

[Pendil]

You think his maiden was stronger than Blue Lord? They pulled clear of the 3rd in both races. Blue Lord got 130 RPR keskonrisk got 119.

Yes, I think. Keskonrisk beating a race fit Indigo Breeze in a sprint to the lune is better form . IMO of course

[Lobos]

Blue Lord was a 2 mile winner on the flat in France and looked like he'd definitely appreciate a step up in distance when winning over 2 miles on his hurdling debut. Don't see him as a Supreme horse at all .

[Topofthegame2021]

Blue Lord was a 2 mile winner on the flat in France and looked like he'd definitely appreciate a step up in distance when winning over 2 miles on his hurdling debut. Don't see him as a Supreme horse at all .

Shit. haha

[Topofthegame2021]

Any news on Micro Manage? Can’t quite understand why he is 20/1 on 365 - can anyone shed any light on this? Is it just based on his flat rating?

[FinalFurlong91]

PP have changed their prices

Now AI 13/8 ballyadam 5/2

[Madmoose]

Mt
The future champions hurdle has been intriguing me. The betting suggests Ballyadam is unlikely to run. The strong favourite @ 5/4 is Appreciate It but Patrick has been talking up Blue Lord specifically for this race and I would think the Lawlors race in January over 2 1/2 ml would suit AI better. Blue Lords form doesn't really stack up.

So I am betting Keskonrisk @ 7/1
I hope Leopardstown gets some rain tomorrow or Tuesday, otherwise they may have to turn on the taps

If you fancy Keskonrisk then you won’t want the taps turning on as he will no doubt be suited by less testing ground being out of no risk at all with the gears he will possess.